An important aspect of urban planning is understanding crowd levels at various locations, which typically require the use of physical sensors. Such sensors are potentially costly and time consuming to implement on a large scale. To address this issue, we utilize publicly available social media datasets and use them as the basis for two urban sensing problems, namely event detection and crowd level prediction. One main contribution of this work is our collected dataset from Twitter and Flickr, alongside ground truth events. We demonstrate the usefulness of this dataset with two preliminary supervised learning approaches: firstly, a series of neural network models to determine if a social media post is related to an event and secondly a regression model using social media post counts to predict actual crowd levels. We discuss preliminary results from these tasks and highlight some challenges.

Depression is among the most prevalent mental disorders, affecting millions of people of all ages globally. Machine learning techniques have shown effective in enabling automated detection and prediction of depression for early intervention and treatment. However, they are challenged by the relative scarcity of instances of depression in the data. In this work we introduce a novel deep multi-task recurrent neural network to tackle this challenge, in which depression classification is jointly optimized with two auxiliary tasks, namely one-class metric learning and anomaly ranking. The auxiliary tasks introduce an inductive bias that improves the classification model's generalizability on small depression samples. Further, unlike existing studies that focus on learning depression signs from static data without considering temporal dynamics, we focus on longitudinal data because i) temporal changes in personal development and family environment can provide critical cues for psychiatric disorders and ii) it may enable us to predict depression before the illness actually occurs. Extensive experimental results on child depression data show that our model is able to i) achieve nearly perfect performance in depression detection and ii) accurately predict depression 2-4 years before the clinical diagnosis, substantially outperforming seven competing methods.

Deep AUC Maximization (DAM) is a paradigm for learning a deep neural network by maximizing the AUC score of the model on a dataset. Most previous works of AUC maximization focus on the perspective of optimization by designing efficient stochastic algorithms, and studies on generalization performance of DAM on difficult tasks are missing. In this work, we aim to make DAM more practical for interesting real-world applications (e.g., medical image classification). First, we propose a new margin-based surrogate loss function for the AUC score (named as the AUC margin loss). It is more robust than the commonly used AUC square loss, while enjoying the same advantage in terms of large-scale stochastic optimization. Second, we conduct empirical studies of our DAM method on difficult medical image classification tasks, namely classification of chest x-ray images for identifying many threatening diseases and classification of images of skin lesions for identifying melanoma. Our DAM method has achieved great success on these difficult tasks, i.e., the 1st place on Stanford CheXpert competition (by the paper submission date) and Top 1% rank (rank 33 out of 3314 teams) on Kaggle 2020 Melanoma classification competition. We also conduct extensive ablation studies to demonstrate the advantages of the new AUC margin loss over the AUC square loss on benchmark datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that makes DAM succeed on large-scale medical image datasets.

Sparse tensor best rank-1 approximation (BR1Approx), which is a sparsity generalization of the dense tensor BR1Approx, and is a higher-order extension of the sparse matrix BR1Approx, is one of the most important problems in sparse tensor decomposition and related problems arising from statistics and machine learning. By exploiting the multilinearity as well as the sparsity structure of the problem, four approximation algorithms are proposed, which are easily implemented, of low computational complexity, and can serve as initial procedures for iterative algorithms. In addition, theoretically guaranteed worst-case approximation lower bounds are proved for all the algorithms. We provide numerical experiments on synthetic and real data to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

We introduce the Graph Mixture Density Network, a new family of machine learning models that can fit multimodal output distributions conditioned on arbitrary input graphs. By combining ideas from mixture models and graph representation learning, we address a broad class of challenging regression problems that rely on structured data. Our main contribution is the design and evaluation of our method on large stochastic epidemic simulations conditioned on random graphs. We show that there is a significant improvement in the likelihood of an epidemic outcome when taking into account both multimodality and structure. In addition, we investigate how to \textit{implicitly} retain structural information in node representations by computing the distance between distributions of adjacent nodes, and the technique is tested on two structure reconstruction tasks with very good accuracy. Graph Mixture Density Networks open appealing research opportunities in the study of structure-dependent phenomena that exhibit non-trivial conditional output distributions.

The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect Out-of-Distribution (OOD) data. Since OOD detection denotes a popular benchmark for epistemic uncertainty estimates, this raises the question of a deeper correlation. This work investigates whether the distribution of latent representations indeed contains information about the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a neural network. Prior work identifies epistemic uncertainty with the surprise, thus the negative log-likelihood, of observing a particular latent representation, which we verify empirically. Moreover, we demonstrate that the output-conditional distribution of hidden representations allows quantifying aleatoric uncertainty via the entropy of the predictive distribution. We analyze epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty inferred from the representations of different layers and conclude with the exciting finding that the hidden repesentations of a deterministic neural network indeed contain information about its uncertainty. We verify our findings on both classification and regression models.

The availability of satellite optical information is often hampered by the natural presence of clouds, which can be problematic for many applications. Persistent clouds over agricultural fields can mask key stages of crop growth, leading to unreliable yield predictions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides all-weather imagery which can potentially overcome this limitation, but given its high and distinct sensitivity to different surface properties, the fusion of SAR and optical data still remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose the use of Multi-Output Gaussian Process (MOGP) regression, a machine learning technique that learns automatically the statistical relationships among multisensor time series, to detect vegetated areas over which the synergy between SAR-optical imageries is profitable. For this purpose, we use the Sentinel-1 Radar Vegetation Index (RVI) and Sentinel-2 Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series over a study area in north west of the Iberian peninsula. Through a physical interpretation of MOGP trained models, we show its ability to provide estimations of LAI even over cloudy periods using the information shared with RVI, which guarantees the solution keeps always tied to real measurements. Results demonstrate the advantage of MOGP especially for long data gaps, where optical-based methods notoriously fail. The leave-one-image-out assessment technique applied to the whole vegetation cover shows MOGP predictions improve standard GP estimations over short-time gaps (R$^2$ of 74\% vs 68\%, RMSE of 0.4 vs 0.44 $[m^2m^{-2}]$) and especially over long-time gaps (R$^2$ of 33\% vs 12\%, RMSE of 0.5 vs 1.09 $[m^2m^{-2}]$).

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. Cluster analysis or clustering is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm that groups unlabeled datasets. It aims to form clusters or groups using the data points in a dataset in such a way that there is high intra-cluster similarity and low inter-cluster similarity. In, layman terms clustering aims at forming subsets or groups within a dataset consisting of data points which are really similar to each other and the groups or subsets or clusters formed can be significantly differentiated from each other. Let's assume we have a dataset and we don't know anything about it.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. One of the most used matrices for measuring model performance is predictive errors. The components of any predictive errors are Noise, Bias, and Variance. This article intends to measure the bias and variance of a given model and observe the behavior of bias and variance w.r.t various models such as Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Bagging, and Random Forest for a given number of sample sizes. Bias: Difference between the prediction of the true model and the average models (models build on n number of samples obtained from the population).

Deep Learning Prerequisites: Logistic Regression in Python, Data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in Python for students and professionals Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto], Portuguese [Auto]Preview this Course - GET COUPON CODE This course is a lead-in to deep learning and neural networks - it covers a popular and fundamental technique used in machine learning, data science and statistics: logistic regression. We cover the theory from the ground up: derivation of the solution, and applications to real-world problems. We show you how one might code their own logistic regression module in Python. This course does not require any external materials. Everything needed (Python, and some Python libraries) can be obtained for free.