Many real-world classification tasks require predicting multiple labels per instance, necessitating the optimization of complex evaluation metrics such as the $F$-measure and Jaccard index. While the Empirical Utility Maximization (EUM) framework is natural for these population-level metrics, existing theoretical results are largely limited to asymptotic Bayes-consistency. In this paper, we develop principled learning algorithms for optimizing a broad class of generalized metrics within the EUM framework, grounded in the stronger notion of $H$-consistency. Our key contribution is the design of novel surrogate loss functions for multi-label learning that admit provable $H$-consistency bounds, enabling optimization with non-asymptotic guarantees tailored to the hypothesis class and finite samples. Crucially, we prove these combinatorially formulated surrogates decompose exactly, operating in strictly $O(l)$ time without approximations. Building on this foundation, we introduce MMO (Multi-Label Metric Optimization), a new family of algorithms for optimizing generalized linear-fractional metrics. We validate our approach through extensive experiments, demonstrating robust scalability and superior performance over state-of-the-art continuous baselines on large-scale datasets (MS-COCO, Reuters-21578) in high-sparsity, deep learning regimes. Our results offer both theoretical rigor and practical effectiveness for general multi-label metric optimization.

This paper proposes a general machine learning framework called the localization method, which is fundamentally built on two core concepts: localization kernels and local means -- key components that underpin the self-attention mechanism. To establish a rigorous theoretical foundation, the framework is formally defined through two essential pillars: the formulation of the local(-ized) model and the localization trick. We systematically investigate the connections between the localization method and a wide range of existing machine learning models/methods, including (but not limited to) kernel methods, lazy learning, the MeanShift algorithm, relaxation labeling, Hopfield networks, local linear embedding (LLE), fuzzy inference, and denoising autoencoders (DAEs). By dissecting these relationships, we clarify the broader theoretical significance of the localization method and demonstrate its practical applicability across diverse machine learning tasks. Furthermore, we explore advanced extensions of the framework, such as adaptive kernels, hierarchical local models, and non-local models. Notably, we show that the Transformer -- a cornerstone of modern sequence modeling -- can be constructed using hierarchical local models, revealing the ability of the localization method to unify and generalize state-of-the-art architectures. This work not only provides a unified theoretical lens to reinterpret existing models but also offers new methodological tools for designing flexible, data-adaptive learning systems.

Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural autoregressive models are often treated as analogues of regression coefficients, leading to misleading claims of statistical significance. In this paper, we argue that causal relevance in nonlinear time-series models should be evaluated through forecast necessity rather than coefficient magnitude, and we present a practical evaluation procedure for doing so. We present an interpretable evaluation framework based on systematic edge ablation and forecast comparison, which tests whether a candidate causal relationship is required for accurate prediction. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a case study model, we apply this framework to a real-world case study of democratic development, modeled as a multivariate time series of panel data - democracy indicators across 139 countries. We show that relationships with similar causal scores can differ dramatically in their predictive necessity due to redundancy, temporal persistence, and regime-specific effects. Our results demonstrate how forecast-necessity testing supports more reliable causal reasoning in applied AI systems and provides practical guidance for interpreting nonlinear time-series models in high-stakes domains.

Deep neural networks exhibit periodic loss spikes during unregularized long-term training, a phenomenon known as the "Slingshot Mechanism." Existing work usually attributes this to intrinsic optimization dynamics, but its triggering mechanism remains unclear. This paper proves that this phenomenon is a result of floating-point arithmetic precision limits. As training enters a high-confidence stage, the difference between the correct-class logit and the other logits may exceed the absorption-error threshold. Then during backpropagation, the gradient of the correct class is rounded exactly to zero, while the gradients of the incorrect classes remain nonzero. This breaks the zero-sum constraint of gradients across classes and introduces a systematic drift in the parameter update of the classifier layer. We prove that this drift forms a positive feedback loop with the feature, causing the global classifier mean and the global feature mean to grow exponentially. We call this mechanism Numerical Feature Inflation (NFI). This mechanism explains the rapid norm growth before a Slingshot spike, the subsequent reappearance of gradients, and the resulting loss spike. We further show that NFI is not equivalent to an observed loss spike: in more practical tasks, partial absorption may not produce visible spikes, but it can still break the zero-sum constraint and drive rapid growth of parameter norms. Our results reinterpret Slingshot as a numerical dynamic of finite-precision training, and provide a testable explanation for abnormal parameter growth and logit divergence in late-stage training.

Understanding the relationship between generalization and privacy remains a central challenge in modern machine learning theory, particularly for deep networks trained by variants of differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD). In this work we make progress on this persistent open problem by proving a finite-sample bound on the approximate max-information of DP-SGD that exhibits scaling properties comparable with (Dwork et al, 2015)'s classic result for $ε$-differentially private algorithms, namely at most linear in the dataset size. From our result we obtain a general-purpose PAC-Bayes generalization bound in which the necessary prior distribution can be learned by DP-SGD, as well as a generalization bound for DP-SGD-trained models themselves, with a complexity term that is fully explicit and controlled by the optimization hyperparameters.

We study a nonlinear factor model in which observed responses depend on low-rank latent factors through an unknown monotone link function. This setting is challenging and largely underexplored due to severe nonconvexity and identifiability issues. The link function is assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), enabling flexible nonparametric modeling while preserving identifiability. We formulate the problem as the joint recovery of the low-rank factors, loadings, and the nonlinear link function from possibly incomplete and noisy observations and propose a projected block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm with explicit regularization to address scale and rotational ambiguities. Under mild incoherence of factors and standard sampling conditions, we establish convergence guarantees in both noiseless and noisy regimes, along with sublinear regret bounds for the link-function updates. Our results extend classical linear factor models to a broad nonlinear regime and provide a principled framework for learning nonlinear latent structures. We evaluate the proposed approach using controlled synthetic experiments, indicating promising performance.

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $τ(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes $τ(x)$ into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes to two propensity classification tasks. We further derive doubly robust augmentations for both S/T- and Q-style ratio learners and characterize their distinct robustness properties. In benchmarks on seven RCT datasets, the Q-Learner is the most consistently competitive method in low-conversion regimes, where its propensity-only construction sidesteps the imbalanced regression that hurts outcome-based estimators. On four observational datasets, where propensity must be estimated and confounding cannot be ruled out, the DR learners introduced here decisively come out on top, making them practitioners' natural default for confounded observational data.

We study adversarial online learning with hidden-convex losses, i.e., nonconvex losses that become convex after a nonlinear reparameterization. Ghai, Lu and Hazan (2022) proved that, under geometric and smoothness assumptions, online gradient descent (OGD) on such nonconvex losses approximately simulates online mirror descent (OMD) on the underlying convex losses with a suitable regularizer, yielding $\mathcal{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret. They left open whether the optimal $Θ(\sqrt{T})$ regret from online convex optimization can be recovered in this hidden-convex setting. We answer this question affirmatively. More specifically, via a sharper discrete-time algorithmic equivalence argument, we prove that OGD achieves $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret under the same assumptions, matching the optimal worst-case rate for adversarial online convex optimization. We also address another open question of Ghai, Lu and Hazan (2022) by clarifying the geometry required for this algorithmic equivalence. We replace the diagonal-Jacobian sufficient condition with a necessary-and-sufficient Hessian compatibility condition, thereby expanding the class of admissible reparameterizations. We complement our tight regret bound with a lower bound showing that the Hessian compatibility assumption is essential for OGD; when it fails, we construct a smooth reparameterization and an adversarial sequence of hidden-convex losses for which OGD suffers $Ω(T)$ regret. Finally, we extend our analysis to one-point bandit feedback and prove a $\mathcal{O}(T^{3/4})$ expected regret bound for bandit OGD with spherical smoothing, matching its classical rate on convex losses.

A representation that scrambles the true degrees of freedom of the world cannot support reliable planning or compositional generalization. We prove that LeJEPA (alignment plus Gaussian regularization) linearly recovers the world's latent variables from nonlinear observations, a property known as linear identifiability, in a broad class of worlds where latents evolve under stationary, additive-noise transitions. Our main result is that among all such worlds, the Gaussian is the unique latent distribution for which this guarantee holds. The forward direction rests on a spectral decomposition in which each degree of nonlinearity is strictly penalized by alignment, making the linear map the optimum; the converse rules out every non-Gaussian alternative. We further prove an approximate identifiability result where the guarantee degrades gracefully, and show that linear, orthogonal identifiability enables optimal latent-space planning. We validate the theory with experiments ranging from 2D examples to 1024-dimensional latents, including distributional ablations and pixel-based robotic control. Our theory turns an empirically successful recipe into a mathematical guarantee, providing the foundation for building World Models that provably recover the structure of the world.

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true object learned by nonlinear autoregressive models: a state-dependent function whose effect varies across regimes, magnitudes, and contexts. We formalize function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures and show that scalar causal scores constitute a severe information bottleneck, conflating between-state variation with within-state residual noise. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a representative architecture, we introduce a practical framework based on Individual Conditional Expectation for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors, including monotonic, thresholded, saturating, and sign-changing effects. An applied case study on democratic development further shows that function-valued analysis reveals regime-specific and asymmetric causal structure systematically missed by score-centric approaches.