With the ever-growing complexity of primary health care system, proactive patient failure management is an effective way to enhancing the availability of health care resource. One key enabler is the dynamic prediction of time-to-event outcomes. Conventional explanatory statistical approach lacks the capability of making precise individual level prediction, while the data adaptive binary predictors does not provide nominal survival curves for biologically plausible survival analysis. The purpose of this article is to elucidate that the knowledge of explanatory survival analysis can significantly enhance the current black-box data adaptive prediction models. We apply our recently developed counterfactual dynamic survival model (CDSM) to static and longitudinal observational data and testify that the inflection point of its estimated individual survival curves provides reliable prediction of the patient failure time.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has in recent years become a well-suited framework to generate human understandable explanations of black box models. In this paper, we present a novel XAI visual explanation algorithm denoted SIDU that can effectively localize entire object regions responsible for prediction in a full extend. We analyze its robustness and effectiveness through various computational and human subject experiments. In particular, we assess the SIDU algorithm using three different types of evaluations (Application, Human and Functionally-Grounded) to demonstrate its superior performance. The robustness of SIDU is further studied in presence of adversarial attack on black box models to better understand its performance.

Many important challenges in science and technology can be cast as optimization problems. When viewed in a statistical physics framework, these can be tackled by simulated annealing, where a gradual cooling procedure helps search for groundstate solutions of a target Hamiltonian. While powerful, simulated annealing is known to have prohibitively slow sampling dynamics when the optimization landscape is rough or glassy. Here we show that by generalizing the target distribution with a parameterized model, an analogous annealing framework based on the variational principle can be used to search for groundstate solutions. Modern autoregressive models such as recurrent neural networks provide ideal parameterizations since they can be exactly sampled without slow dynamics even when the model encodes a rough landscape. We implement this procedure in the classical and quantum settings on several prototypical spin glass Hamiltonians, and find that it significantly outperforms traditional simulated annealing in the asymptotic limit, illustrating the potential power of this yet unexplored route to optimization.

The directional mean shift (DMS) algorithm is a nonparametric method for pursuing local modes of densities defined by kernel density estimators on the unit hypersphere. In this paper, we show that any DMS iteration can be viewed as a generalized Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm; in particular, when the von Mises kernel is applied, it becomes an exact EM algorithm. Under the (generalized) EM framework, we provide a new proof for the ascending property of density estimates and demonstrate the global convergence of directional mean shift sequences. Finally, we give a new insight into the linear convergence of the DMS algorithm.

In many domains data is currently represented as graphs and therefore, the graph representation of this data becomes increasingly important in machine learning. Network data is, implicitly or explicitly, always represented using a graph shift operator (GSO) with the most common choices being the adjacency, Laplacian matrices and their normalisations. In this paper, a novel parametrised GSO (PGSO) is proposed, where specific parameter values result in the most commonly used GSOs and message-passing operators in graph neural network (GNN) frameworks. The PGSO is suggested as a replacement of the standard GSOs that are used in state-of-the-art GNN architectures and the optimisation of the PGSO parameters is seamlessly included in the model training. It is proved that the PGSO has real eigenvalues and a set of real eigenvectors independent of the parameter values and spectral bounds on the PGSO are derived. PGSO parameters are shown to adapt to the sparsity of the graph structure in a study on stochastic blockmodel networks, where they are found to automatically replicate the GSO regularisation found in the literature. On several real-world datasets the accuracy of state-of-theart GNN architectures is improved by the inclusion of the PGSO in both nodeand graph-classification tasks. Graph representation learning has attracted a significant research interest over the last years, mainly due to the structural complexity of real-world data and applications (Hamilton et al., 2017b; Wu et al., 2020). The topology of the observations plays a central role when performing machine learning tasks on graph structured data.

Forecasting of time series in continuous systems becomes an increasingly relevant task due to recent developments in IoT and 5G. The popular forecasting model ARIMA is applied to a large variety of applications for decades. An online variant of ARIMA applies the Online Newton Step in order to learn the underlying process of the time series. This optimization method has pitfalls concerning the computational complexity and convergence. Thus, this work focuses on the computational less expensive Online Gradient Descent optimization method, which became popular for learning of neural networks in recent years. For the iterative training of such models, we propose a new approach combining different Online Gradient Descent learners (such as Adam, AMSGrad, Adagrad, Nesterov) to achieve fast convergence. The evaluation on synthetic data and experimental datasets show that the proposed approach outperforms the existing methods resulting in an overall lower prediction error.

The increasing cost, energy demand, and environmental issues has led many researchers to find approaches for energy monitoring, and hence energy conservation. The emerging technologies of Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine Learning (ML) deliver techniques that have the potential to efficiently conserve energy and improve the utilization of energy consumption. Smart Home Energy Management Systems (SHEMSs) have the potential to contribute in energy conservation through the application of Demand Response (DR) in the residential sector. In this paper, we propose appliances Operation Modes Identification using Cycles Clustering (OMICC) which is SHEMS fundamental approach that utilizes the sensed residential disaggregated power consumption in supporting DR by providing consumers the opportunity to select lighter appliance operation modes. The cycles of the Single Usage Profile (SUP) of an appliance are extracted and reformed into features in terms of clusters of cycles. These features are then used to identify the operation mode used in every occurrence using K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). Operation modes identification is considered a basis for many potential smart DR applications within SHEMS towards the consumers or the suppliers

Expressive text encoders such as RNNs and Transformer Networks have been at the center of NLP models in recent work. Most of the effort has focused on sentence-level tasks, capturing the dependencies between words in a single sentence, or pairs of sentences. However, certain tasks, such as argumentation mining, require accounting for longer texts and complicated structural dependencies between them. Deep structured prediction is a general framework to combine the complementary strengths of expressive neural encoders and structured inference for highly structured domains. Nevertheless, when the need arises to go beyond sentences, most work relies on combining the output scores of independently trained classifiers. One of the main reasons for this is that constrained inference comes at a high computational cost. In this paper, we explore the use of randomized inference to alleviate this concern and show that we can efficiently leverage deep structured prediction and expressive neural encoders for a set of tasks involving complicated argumentative structures.

Many online applications running on live traffic are powered by machine learning models, for which training, validation, and hyper-parameter tuning are conducted on historical data. However, it is common for models demonstrating strong performance in offline analysis to yield poorer performance when deployed online. This problem is a consequence of the difficulty of training on historical data in non-stationary environments. Moreover, the machine learning metrics used for model selection may not sufficiently correlate with real-world business metrics used to determine the success of the applications being tested. These problems are particularly prominent in the Real-Time Bidding (RTB) domain, in which ML models power bidding strategies, and a change in models will likely affect performance of the advertising campaigns. In this work, we present Automatic Model Selector (AMS), a system for scalable online selection of RTB bidding strategies based on real-world performance metrics. AMS employs Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) to near-simultaneously run and evaluate multiple models against live traffic, allocating the most traffic to the best-performing models while decreasing traffic to those with poorer online performance, thereby minimizing the impact of inferior models on overall campaign performance. The reliance on offline data is avoided, instead making model selections on a case-by-case basis according to actionable business goals. AMS allows new models to be safely introduced into live campaigns as soon as they are developed, minimizing the risk to overall performance. In live-traffic tests on multiple ad campaigns, the AMS system proved highly effective at improving ad campaign performance.

Adversarial learning can learn fairer and less biased models of language than standard methods. However, current adversarial techniques only partially mitigate model bias, added to which their training procedures are often unstable. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to adversarial learning based on the use of multiple diverse discriminators, whereby discriminators are encouraged to learn orthogonal hidden representations from one another. Experimental results show that our method substantially improves over standard adversarial removal methods, in terms of reducing bias and the stability of training.