We model the dynamics of privacy loss in Langevin diffusion and extend it to the noisy gradient descent algorithm: we compute a tight bound on R\'enyi differential privacy and the rate of its change throughout the learning process. We prove that the privacy loss converges exponentially fast. This significantly improves the prior privacy analysis of differentially private (stochastic) gradient descent algorithms, where (R\'enyi) privacy loss constantly increases over the training iterations. Unlike composition-based methods in differential privacy, our privacy analysis does not assume that the noisy gradients (or parameters) during the training could be revealed to the adversary. Our analysis tracks the dynamics of privacy loss through the algorithm's intermediate parameter distributions, thus allowing us to account for privacy amplification due to convergence. We prove that our privacy analysis is tight, and also provide a utility analysis for strongly convex, smooth and Lipshitz loss functions.

As machine learning models are deployed in critical applications, it becomes important to not just provide point estimators of the model parameters (or subsequent predictions), but also quantify the uncertainty associated with estimating the model parameters via confidence sets. In the last decade, estimating or training in several machine learning models has become synonymous with running stochastic gradient algorithms. However, computing the stochastic gradients in several settings is highly expensive or even impossible at times. An important question which has thus far not been addressed sufficiently in the statistical machine learning literature is that of equipping zeroth-order stochastic gradient algorithms with practical yet rigorous inferential capabilities. Towards this, in this work, we first establish a central limit theorem for Polyak-Ruppert averaged stochastic gradient algorithm in the zeroth-order setting. We then provide online estimators of the asymptotic covariance matrix appearing in the central limit theorem, thereby providing a practical procedure for constructing asymptotically valid confidence sets (or intervals) for parameter estimation (or prediction) in the zeroth-order setting.

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has become a major experimental technology to determine the structures of large protein complexes and molecular assemblies, as evidenced by the 2017 Nobel Prize. Although cryo-EM has been drastically improved to generate high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) maps that contain detailed structural information about macromolecules, the computational methods for using the data to automatically build structure models are lagging far behind. Traditional cryo-EM model building approach is template-based homology modeling. Manual de novo modeling is very time-consuming when no template model could be found in the database. In recent years, de novo cryo-EM modeling using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) has ranked among the top-performing methods in macromolecular structure modeling. Deep-learning-based de novo cryo-EM modeling is an important application of artificial intelligence, with impressive results and great potential for the next generation of molecular biomedicine. Accordingly, we systematically review the representative ML/DL-based de novo cryo-EM modeling methods. And their significances are discussed from both practical and methodological viewpoints. We also briefly describe the background of cryo-EM data processing workflow. Overall, this review provides an introductory guide to modern research on artificial intelligence (AI) for de novo molecular structure modeling and future directions in this emerging field.

This paper introduces a new metamodel-based knowledge representation that significantly improves autonomous learning and adaptation. While interest in hybrid machine learning / symbolic AI systems leveraging, for example, reasoning and knowledge graphs, is gaining popularity, we find there remains a need for both a clear definition of knowledge and a metamodel to guide the creation and manipulation of knowledge. Some of the benefits of the metamodel we introduce in this paper include a solution to the symbol grounding problem, cumulative learning, and federated learning. We have applied the metamodel to problems ranging from time series analysis, computer vision, and natural language understanding and have found that the metamodel enables a wide variety of learning mechanisms ranging from machine learning, to graph network analysis and learning by reasoning engines to interoperate in a highly synergistic way. Our metamodel-based projects have consistently exhibited unprecedented accuracy, performance, and ability to generalize. This paper is inspired by the state-of-the-art approaches to AGI, recent AGI-aspiring work, the granular computing community, as well as Alfred Korzybski's general semantics. One surprising consequence of the metamodel is that it not only enables a new level of autonomous learning and optimal functioning for machine intelligences, but may also shed light on a path to better understanding how to improve human cognition.

Data driven models of dynamical systems help planners and controllers to provide more precise and accurate motions. Most model learning algorithms will try to minimize a loss function between the observed data and the model's predictions. This can be improved using prior knowledge about the task at hand, which can be encoded in the form of constraints. This turns the unconstrained model learning problem into a constrained one. These constraints allow models with finite capacity to focus their expressive power on important aspects of the system. This can lead to models that are better suited for certain tasks. This paper introduces the constrained Sufficiently Accurate model learning approach, provides examples of such problems, and presents a theorem on how close some approximate solutions can be. The approximate solution quality will depend on the function parameterization, loss and constraint function smoothness, and the number of samples in model learning.

Abstract--Real-world applications have been dealing with large amounts of data that arrive over time and generally present changes in their underlying joint probability distribution, i.e., concept drift. Concept drift can be subdivided into two types: virtual drift, which affects the unconditional probability distribution p(x), and real drift, which affects the conditional probability distribution p(y x) . Existing works focuses on real drift. However, strategies to cope with real drift may not be the best suited for dealing with virtual drift, since the real class boundaries remain unchanged. We provide the first in depth analysis of the differences between the impact of virtual and real drifts on classifiers' suitability. We propose an approach to handle both drifts called On-line Gaussian Mixture Model With Noise Filter For Handling Virtual and Real Concept Drifts (OGMMF-VRD). Experiments with 7 synthetic and 3 real-world datasets show that OGMMF-VRD obtained the best results in terms of average accuracy, G-mean and runtime compared to existing approaches. Moreover, its accuracy over time suffered less performance degradation in the presence of drifts. In recent years, real-world applications like credit card learned decision boundaries, which need to be adjusted for fraud detection, flight delay and weather forecasting have the classifier to remain suitable. Such sequences of data are known as data stream learning approaches treat virtual drifts using data streams [2, 3]. They are challenging for data modeling the same strategies as for real drifts [6].

To enable an ethical and legal use of machine learning algorithms, they must both be fair and protect the privacy of those whose data are being used. However, implementing privacy and fairness constraints might come at the cost of utility (Jayaraman & Evans, 2019; Gong et al., 2020). This paper investigates the privacy-utility-fairness trade-off in neural networks by comparing a Simple (S-NN), a Fair (F-NN), a Differentially Private (DP-NN), and a Differentially Private and Fair Neural Network (DPF-NN) to evaluate differences in performance on metrics for privacy (epsilon, delta), fairness (risk difference), and utility (accuracy). In the scenario with the highest considered privacy guarantees (epsilon = 0.1, delta = 0.00001), the DPF-NN was found to achieve better risk difference than all the other neural networks with only a marginally lower accuracy than the S-NN and DP-NN. This model is considered fair as it achieved a risk difference below the strict (0.05) and lenient (0.1) thresholds. However, while the accuracy of the proposed model improved on previous work from Xu, Yuan and Wu (2019), the risk difference was found to be worse.

Background. Forecasting the time of forthcoming pandemic reduces the impact of diseases by taking precautionary steps such as public health messaging and raising the consciousness of doctors. With the continuous and rapid increase in the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, statistical and outbreak prediction models including various machine learning (ML) models are being used by the research community to track and predict the trend of the epidemic, and also in developing appropriate strategies to combat and manage its spread. Methods. In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of various ML approaches including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor and Artificial Neural Network in predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in the epidemiological domain. We first apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to identify and model the short and long-run relationships of the time-series COVID-19 datasets. That is, we determine the lags between a response variable and its respective explanatory time series variables as independent variables. Then, the resulting significant variables concerning their lags are used in the regression model selected by the ARDL for predicting and forecasting the trend of the epidemic. Results. Statistical measures i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used for model accuracy. The values of MAPE for the best selected models for confirmed, recovered and deaths cases are 0.407, 0.094 and 0.124 respectively, which falls under the category of highly accurate forecasts. In addition, we computed fifteen days ahead forecast for the daily deaths, recover, and confirm patients and the cases fluctuated across time in all aspects. Besides, the results reveal the advantages of ML algorithms for supporting decision making of evolving short term policies.

Modern Code Review (MCR) is the process of reviewing new code changes that need to be merged with an existing codebase. As a developer, one may receive many code review requests every day, i.e., the review requests need to be prioritised. Manually prioritising review requests is a challenging and time-consuming process. To address the above problem, we conducted an industrial case study at Ericsson aiming at developing a tool called Pineapple, which uses a Bayesian Network to prioritise code review requests. To validate our approach/tool, we deployed it in a live software development project at Ericsson, wherein more than 150 developers develop a telecommunication product. We focused on evaluating the predictive performance, feasibility, and usefulness of our approach. The results indicate that Pineapple has competent predictive performance (RMSE = 0.21 and MAE = 0.15). Furthermore, around 82.6% of Pineapple's users believe the tool can support code review request prioritisation by providing reliable results, and around 56.5% of the users believe it helps reducing code review lead time. As future work, we plan to evaluate Pineapple's predictive performance, usefulness, and feasibility through a longitudinal investigation.

This work aims at intensifying text-independent speaker identification performance in real application situations such as noisy and emotional talking conditions. This is achieved by incorporating two different modules: a Computational Auditory Scene Analysis CASA based pre-processing module for noise reduction and cascaded Gaussian Mixture Model Convolutional Neural Network GMM-CNN classifier for speaker identification followed by emotion recognition. This research proposes and evaluates a novel algorithm to improve the accuracy of speaker identification in emotional and highly-noise susceptible conditions. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed model yields promising results in comparison with other classifiers when Speech Under Simulated and Actual Stress SUSAS database, Emirati Speech Database ESD, the Ryerson Audio-Visual Database of Emotional Speech and Song RAVDESS database and the Fluent Speech Commands database are used in a noisy environment.