Machine learning of patient characteristics to predict admission outcomes in the undiagnosed diseases network: Researchers developed a machine learning algorithm to determine whether to accept patients to the Undiagnosed Diseases Network for extensive genome-scale evaluation. They found that the admission process could be accelerated by up to 68 percent using the algorithm, which would allow for more applications processed in a given time frame. Use of machine learning models to predict death after acute myocardial infarction: The research team developed machine learning methods to improve the prediction of in-hospital death after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction. They found their models were not associated with significantly better prediction of risk of death after acute myocardial infarction, but they could improve the resolution of risk, which can better clarify individuals' risk for adverse outcomes. A survey of clinicians on the use of artificial intelligence in ophthalmology, dermatology, radiology and radiation oncology: A survey about personal use of clinical AI tools was conducted among fellows and trainees of three specialty colleges in Australia and New Zealand.

The past years have seen seen the development and deployment of machine-learning algorithms to estimate personalized treatment-assignment policies from randomized controlled trials. Yet such algorithms for the assignment of treatment typically optimize expected outcomes without taking into account that treatment assignments are frequently subject to hypothesis testing. In this article, we explicitly take significance testing of the effect of treatment-assignment policies into account, and consider assignments that optimize the probability of finding a subset of individuals with a statistically significant positive treatment effect. We provide an efficient implementation using decision trees, and demonstrate its gain over selecting subsets based on positive (estimated) treatment effects. Compared to standard tree-based regression and classification tools, this approach tends to yield substantially higher power in detecting subgroups with positive treatment effects. INTRODUCTION Recent years have seen the development of machine-learning algorithms that estimate heterogeneous causal effects from randomized controlled trials. While the estimation of average effects - for example, how effective a vaccine is overall, whether a conditional cash transfer reduces poverty, or which ad leads to more clicks - can inform the decision whether to deploy a treatment or not, heterogeneous treatment effect estimation allows us to decide who should get treated. These algorithms aim to maximize realized outcomes, and thus focus on assigning treatment to individuals with positive (estimated) treatment effects. Yet in practice, the deployment of assignment policies often only happens after passing a test that the assignment produces a positive net effect relative to some status quo. For example, a drug manufacturer may have to demonstrate that the drug is effective on the target population by submitting a hypothesis test to the FDA for approval.

We prove the support recovery for a general class of linear and nonlinear evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) identification from a single noisy trajectory using $\ell_1$ regularized Pseudo-Least Squares model~($\ell_1$-PsLS). In any associative $\mathbb{R}$-algebra generated by finitely many differentiation operators that contain the unknown PDE operator, applying $\ell_1$-PsLS to a given data set yields a family of candidate models with coefficients $\mathbf{c}(\lambda)$ parameterized by the regularization weight $\lambda\geq 0$. The trace of $\{\mathbf{c}(\lambda)\}_{\lambda\geq 0}$ suffers from high variance due to data noises and finite difference approximation errors. We provide a set of sufficient conditions which guarantee that, from a single trajectory data denoised by a Local-Polynomial filter, the support of $\mathbf{c}(\lambda)$ asymptotically converges to the true signed-support associated with the underlying PDE for sufficiently many data and a certain range of $\lambda$. We also show various numerical experiments to validate our theory.

We consider the multivariate max-linear regression problem where the model parameters $\boldsymbol{\beta}_{1},\dotsc,\boldsymbol{\beta}_{k}\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$ need to be estimated from $n$ independent samples of the (noisy) observations $y = \max_{1\leq j \leq k} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{j}^{\mathsf{T}} \boldsymbol{x} + \mathrm{noise}$. The max-linear model vastly generalizes the conventional linear model, and it can approximate any convex function to an arbitrary accuracy when the number of linear models $k$ is large enough. However, the inherent nonlinearity of the max-linear model renders the estimation of the regression parameters computationally challenging. Particularly, no estimator based on convex programming is known in the literature. We formulate and analyze a scalable convex program as the estimator for the max-linear regression problem. Under the standard Gaussian observation setting, we present a non-asymptotic performance guarantee showing that the convex program recovers the parameters with high probability. When the $k$ linear components are equally likely to achieve the maximum, our result shows that a sufficient number of observations scales as $k^{2}p$ up to a logarithmic factor. This significantly improves on the analogous prior result based on alternating minimization (Ghosh et al., 2019). Finally, through a set of Monte Carlo simulations, we illustrate that our theoretical result is consistent with empirical behavior, and the convex estimator for max-linear regression is as competitive as the alternating minimization algorithm in practice.

Data are not only ubiquitous in society, but are increasingly complex both in size and dimensionality. Dimension reduction offers researchers and scholars the ability to make such complex, high dimensional data spaces simpler and more manageable. This Element offers readers a suite of modern unsupervised dimension reduction techniques along with hundreds of lines of R code, to efficiently represent the original high dimensional data space in a simplified, lower dimensional subspace. Launching from the earliest dimension reduction technique principal components analysis and using real social science data, I introduce and walk readers through application of the following techniques: locally linear embedding, t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), uniform manifold approximation and projection, self-organizing maps, and deep autoencoders. The result is a well-stocked toolbox of unsupervised algorithms for tackling the complexities of high dimensional data so common in modern society. All code is publicly accessible on Github.

We propose a distributionally robust support vector machine with a fairness constraint that encourages the classifier to be fair in view of the equality of opportunity criterion. We use a type-$\infty$ Wasserstein ambiguity set centered at the empirical distribution to model distributional uncertainty and derive an exact reformulation for worst-case unfairness measure. We establish that the model is equivalent to a mixed-binary optimization problem, which can be solved by standard off-the-shelf solvers. We further prove that the expectation of the hinge loss objective function constitutes an upper bound on the misclassification probability. Finally, we numerically demonstrate that our proposed approach improves fairness with negligible loss of predictive accuracy.

Training classifiers under fairness constraints such as group fairness, regularizes the disparities of predictions between the groups. Nevertheless, even though the constraints are satisfied during training, they might not generalize at evaluation time. To improve the generalizability of fair classifiers, we propose fair mixup, a new data augmentation strategy for imposing the fairness constraint. In particular, we show that fairness can be achieved by regularizing the models on paths of interpolated samples between the groups. We use mixup, a powerful data augmentation strategy to generate these interpolates. We analyze fair mixup and empirically show that it ensures a better generalization for both accuracy and fairness measurement in tabular, vision, and language benchmarks.

This paper derives time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for causal effects in experimental and observational settings. A confidence sequence for a target parameter $\psi$ is a sequence of confidence intervals $(C_t)_{t=1}^\infty$ such that every one of these intervals simultaneously captures $\psi$ with high probability. Such CSs provide valid statistical inference for $\psi$ at arbitrary stopping times, unlike classical fixed-time confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing methods for constructing CSs focus on the nonasymptotic regime where certain assumptions (such as known bounds on the random variables) are imposed, while doubly-robust estimators of causal effects rely on (asymptotic) semiparametric theory. We use sequential versions of central limit theorem arguments to construct large-sample CSs for causal estimands, with a particular focus on the average treatment effect (ATE) under nonparametric conditions. These CSs allow analysts to update statistical inferences about the ATE in lieu of new data, and experiments can be continuously monitored, stopped, or continued for any data-dependent reason, all while controlling the type-I error rate. Finally, we describe how these CSs readily extend to other causal estimands and estimators, providing a new framework for sequential causal inference in a wide array of problems.

Trustworthy deployment of ML models requires a proper measure of uncertainty, especially in safety-critical applications. We focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for classification problems via two avenues -- prediction sets using conformal prediction and calibration of probabilistic predictors by post-hoc binning -- since these possess distribution-free guarantees for i.i.d. data. Two common ways of generalizing beyond the i.i.d. setting include handling covariate and label shift. Within the context of distribution-free UQ, the former has already received attention, but not the latter. It is known that label shift hurts prediction, and we first argue that it also hurts UQ, by showing degradation in coverage and calibration. Piggybacking on recent progress in addressing label shift (for better prediction), we examine the right way to achieve UQ by reweighting the aforementioned conformal and calibration procedures whenever some unlabeled data from the target distribution is available. We examine these techniques theoretically in a distribution-free framework and demonstrate their excellent practical performance.

We study inference about the uniform distribution with the proposed binary expansion approximation of uniformity (BEAUTY) approach. Through an extension of the celebrated Euler's formula, we approximate the characteristic function of any copula distribution with a linear combination of means of binary interactions from marginal binary expansions. This novel characterization enables a unification of many important existing tests through an approximation from some quadratic form of symmetry statistics, where the deterministic weight matrix characterizes the power properties of each test. To achieve a uniformly high power, we study test statistics with data-adaptive weights through an oracle approach, referred to as the binary expansion adaptive symmetry test (BEAST). By utilizing the properties of the binary expansion filtration, we show that the Neyman-Pearson test of uniformity can be approximated by an oracle weighted sum of symmetry statistics. The BEAST with this oracle leads all existing tests we considered in empirical power against all complex forms of alternatives. This oracle therefore sheds light on the potential of substantial improvements in power and on the form of optimal weights under each alternative. By approximating this oracle with data-adaptive weights, we develop the BEAST that improves the empirical power of many existing tests against a wide spectrum of common alternatives while providing clear interpretation of the form of non-uniformity upon rejection. We illustrate the BEAST with a study of the relationship between the location and brightness of stars.