A frequent criticism from the statistics community to modern machine learning is the lack of rigorous uncertainty quantification. Instead, the machine learning community would argue that conventional uncertainty quantification based on idealized distributional assumptions may be too restrictive for real data. Nevertheless, without a doubt, uncertainty quantification for predictive modeling is essential to statistics, learning theory, and econometrics. This paper will resolve the above inference dilemma by introducing a new method with provable uncertainty quantification via semi-definite programming. The proposed method learns a dataadaptive, heteroskedastic prediction band that is: (a) universally applicable without strong distributional assumptions, (b) with desirable theoretical coverage with or without any user-specified predictive model, and (c) easy to implement via standard convex programs (when used in conjunction with a wide range of positive-definite kernels). Let (x, y) X R be the covariates and response data pair drawn from an unknown distribution P.

We create a framework to analyse the timing and frequency of instantaneous interactions between pairs of entities. This type of interaction data is especially common nowadays, and easily available. Examples of instantaneous interactions include email networks, phone call networks and some common types of technological and transportation networks. Our framework relies on a novel extension of the latent position network model: we assume that the entities are embedded in a latent Euclidean space, and that they move along individual trajectories which are continuous over time. These trajectories are used to characterize the timing and frequency of the pairwise interactions. We discuss an inferential framework where we estimate the individual trajectories from the observed interaction data, and propose applications on artificial and real data.

Epidemiology models play a key role in understanding and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to build those models, scientists need to understand contributing factors and their relative importance. A large strand of literature has identified the importance of airflow to mitigate droplets and far-field aerosol transmission risks. However, the specific factors contributing to higher or lower contamination in various settings have not been clearly defined and quantified. As part of the MOAI project (https://moaiapp.com), we are developing a privacy-preserving test and trace app to enable infection cluster investigators to get in touch with patients without having to know their identity. This approach allows involving users in the fight against the pandemic by contributing additional information in the form of anonymous research questionnaires. We first describe how the questionnaire was designed, and the synthetic data was generated based on a review we carried out on the latest available literature. We then present a model to evaluate the risk exposition of a user for a given setting. We finally propose a temporal addition to the model to evaluate the risk exposure over time for a given user.

Artificial Intelligence is one of the fastest growing technologies of the 21st century and accompanies us in our daily lives when interacting with technical applications. However, reliance on such technical systems is crucial for their widespread applicability and acceptance. The societal tools to express reliance are usually formalized by lawful regulations, i.e., standards, norms, accreditations, and certificates. Therefore, the T\"UV AUSTRIA Group in cooperation with the Institute for Machine Learning at the Johannes Kepler University Linz, proposes a certification process and an audit catalog for Machine Learning applications. We are convinced that our approach can serve as the foundation for the certification of applications that use Machine Learning and Deep Learning, the techniques that drive the current revolution in Artificial Intelligence. While certain high-risk areas, such as fully autonomous robots in workspaces shared with humans, are still some time away from certification, we aim to cover low-risk applications with our certification procedure. Our holistic approach attempts to analyze Machine Learning applications from multiple perspectives to evaluate and verify the aspects of secure software development, functional requirements, data quality, data protection, and ethics. Inspired by existing work, we introduce four criticality levels to map the criticality of a Machine Learning application regarding the impact of its decisions on people, environment, and organizations. Currently, the audit catalog can be applied to low-risk applications within the scope of supervised learning as commonly encountered in industry. Guided by field experience, scientific developments, and market demands, the audit catalog will be extended and modified accordingly.

Recently many algorithms were devised for reinforcement learning (RL) with function approximation. While they have clear algorithmic distinctions, they also have many implementation differences that are algorithm-agnostic and sometimes subtle. Such mixing of algorithmic novelty and implementation craftsmanship makes rigorous analyses of the sources of performance improvements difficult. In this work, we focus on a series of inference-based actor-critic algorithms -- MPO, AWR, and SAC -- to decouple their algorithmic innovations and implementation decisions. We present unified derivations through a single control-as-inference objective, where we can categorize each algorithm as based on either Expectation-Maximization (EM) or direct Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence minimization and treat the rest of specifications as implementation details. We performed extensive ablation studies, and identified substantial performance drops whenever implementation details are mismatched for algorithmic choices. These results show which implementation details are co-adapted and co-evolved with algorithms, and which are transferable across algorithms: as examples, we identified that tanh policy and network sizes are highly adapted to algorithmic types, while layer normalization and ELU are critical for MPO's performances but also transfer to noticeable gains in SAC. We hope our work can inspire future work to further demystify sources of performance improvements across multiple algorithms and allow researchers to build on one another's both algorithmic and implementational innovations.

Cluster assignment of large and complex images is a crucial but challenging task in pattern recognition and computer vision. In this study, we explore the possibility of employing fuzzy clustering in a deep neural network framework. Thus, we present a novel evolutionary unsupervised learning representation model with iterative optimization. It implements the deep adaptive fuzzy clustering (DAFC) strategy that learns a convolutional neural network classifier from given only unlabeled data samples. DAFC consists of a deep feature quality-verifying model and a fuzzy clustering model, where deep feature representation learning loss function and embedded fuzzy clustering with the weighted adaptive entropy is implemented. We joint fuzzy clustering to the deep reconstruction model, in which fuzzy membership is utilized to represent a clear structure of deep cluster assignments and jointly optimize for the deep representation learning and clustering. Also, the joint model evaluates current clustering performance by inspecting whether the re-sampled data from estimated bottleneck space have consistent clustering properties to progressively improve the deep clustering model. Comprehensive experiments on a variety of datasets show that the proposed method obtains a substantially better performance for both reconstruction and clustering quality when compared to the other state-of-the-art deep clustering methods, as demonstrated with the in-depth analysis in the extensive experiments.

Training quantum neural networks (QNNs) using gradient-based or gradient-free classical optimisation approaches is severely impacted by the presence of barren plateaus in the cost landscapes. In this paper, we devise a framework for leveraging quantum optimisation algorithms to find optimal parameters of QNNs for certain tasks. To achieve this, we coherently encode the cost function of QNNs onto relative phases of a superposition state in the Hilbert space of the network parameters. The parameters are tuned with an iterative quantum optimisation structure using adaptively selected Hamiltonians. The quantum mechanism of this framework exploits hidden structure in the QNN optimisation problem and hence is expected to provide beyond-Grover speed up, mitigating the barren plateau issue.

Temporal grounding aims to localize temporal boundaries within untrimmed videos by language queries, but it faces the challenge of two types of inevitable human uncertainties: query uncertainty and label uncertainty. The two uncertainties stem from human subjectivity, leading to limited generalization ability of temporal grounding. In this work, we propose a novel DeNet (Decoupling and De-bias) to embrace human uncertainty: Decoupling - We explicitly disentangle each query into a relation feature and a modified feature. The relation feature, which is mainly based on skeleton-like words (including nouns and verbs), aims to extract basic and consistent information in the presence of query uncertainty. Meanwhile, modified feature assigned with style-like words (including adjectives, adverbs, etc) represents the subjective information, and thus brings personalized predictions; De-bias - We propose a de-bias mechanism to generate diverse predictions, aim to alleviate the bias caused by single-style annotations in the presence of label uncertainty. Moreover, we put forward new multi-label metrics to diversify the performance evaluation. Extensive experiments show that our approach is more effective and robust than state-of-the-arts on Charades-STA and ActivityNet Captions datasets.

Ever wonder how you can create non-parametric supervised learning models with unlimited expressive power? Look no further than Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), an algorithm that learns to make predictions almost entirely from the data itself (with a little help from hyperparameters). Combining this algorithm with recent advances in computing, such as automatic differentiation, allows for applying GPRs to solve a variety of supervised machine learning problems in near-real-time. In this article, we'll discuss: This is the second article in my GPR series. For a rigorous, Ab initio introduction to Gaussian Process Regression, please check out my previous article here. Before we dive into how we can implement and use GPR, let's quickly review the mechanics and theory behind this supervised machine learning algorithm.

Logistic regression is a predictive modelling algorithm that is used when the Y variable is binary categorical. That is, it can take only two values like 1 or 0. The goal is to determine a mathematical equation that can be used to predict the probability of event 1. Once the equation is established, it can be used to predict the Y when only the X--s are known. Earlier you saw what is linear regression and how to use it to predict continuous Y variables. In linear regression the Y variable is always a continuous variable.