In the mean field regime, neural networks are appropriately scaled so that as the width tends to infinity, the learning dynamics tends to a nonlinear and nontrivial dynamical limit, known as the mean field limit. This lends a way to study large-width neural networks via analyzing the mean field limit. Recent works have successfully applied such analysis to two-layer networks and provided global convergence guarantees. The extension to multilayer ones however has been a highly challenging puzzle, and little is known about the optimization efficiency in the mean field regime when there are more than two layers. In this work, we prove a global convergence result for unregularized feedforward three-layer networks in the mean field regime. We first develop a rigorous framework to establish the mean field limit of three-layer networks under stochastic gradient descent training. To that end, we propose the idea of a \textit{neuronal embedding}, which comprises of a fixed probability space that encapsulates neural networks of arbitrary sizes. The identified mean field limit is then used to prove a global convergence guarantee under suitable regularity and convergence mode assumptions, which -- unlike previous works on two-layer networks -- does not rely critically on convexity. Underlying the result is a universal approximation property, natural of neural networks, which importantly is shown to hold at \textit{any} finite training time (not necessarily at convergence) via an algebraic topology argument.

Uplift is a particular case of conditional treatment effect modeling. Such models deal with cause-and-effect inference for a specific factor, such as a marketing intervention or a medical treatment. In practice, these models are built on individual data from randomized clinical trials where the goal is to partition the participants into heterogeneous groups depending on the uplift. Most existing approaches are adaptations of random forests for the uplift case. Several split criteria have been proposed in the literature, all relying on maximizing heterogeneity. However, in practice, these approaches are prone to overfitting. In this work, we bring a new vision to uplift modeling. We propose a new loss function defined by leveraging a connection with the Bayesian interpretation of the relative risk. Our solution is developed for a specific twin neural network architecture allowing to jointly optimize the marginal probabilities of success for treated and control individuals. We show that this model is a generalization of the uplift logistic interaction model. We modify the stochastic gradient descent algorithm to allow for structured sparse solutions. This helps training our uplift models to a great extent. We show our proposed method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in simulation setting and on real data from large scale randomized experiments.

A common approach for feature selection is to examine the variable importance scores for a machine learning model, as a way to understand which features are the most relevant for making predictions. Given the significance of feature selection, it is crucial for the calculated importance scores to reflect reality. Falsely overestimating the importance of irrelevant features can lead to false discoveries, while underestimating importance of relevant features may lead us to discard important features, resulting in poor model performance. Additionally, black-box models like XGBoost provide state-of-the art predictive performance, but cannot be easily understood by humans, and thus we rely on variable importance scores or methods for explainability like SHAP to offer insight into their behavior. In this paper, we investigate the performance of variable importance as a feature selection method across various black-box and interpretable machine learning methods. We compare the ability of CART, Optimal Trees, XGBoost and SHAP to correctly identify the relevant subset of variables across a number of experiments. The results show that regardless of whether we use the native variable importance method or SHAP, XGBoost fails to clearly distinguish between relevant and irrelevant features. On the other hand, the interpretable methods are able to correctly and efficiently identify irrelevant features, and thus offer significantly better performance for feature selection.

Federated Learning (FL) is an emerging learning scheme that allows different distributed clients to train deep neural networks together without data sharing. Neural networks have become popular due to their unprecedented success. To the best of our knowledge, the theoretical guarantees of FL concerning neural networks with explicit forms and multi-step updates are unexplored. Nevertheless, training analysis of neural networks in FL is non-trivial for two reasons: first, the objective loss function we are optimizing is non-smooth and non-convex, and second, we are even not updating in the gradient direction. Existing convergence results for gradient descent-based methods heavily rely on the fact that the gradient direction is used for updating. This paper presents a new class of convergence analysis for FL, Federated Learning Neural Tangent Kernel (FL-NTK), which corresponds to overparamterized ReLU neural networks trained by gradient descent in FL and is inspired by the analysis in Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). Theoretically, FL-NTK converges to a global-optimal solution at a linear rate with properly tuned learning parameters. Furthermore, with proper distributional assumptions, FL-NTK can also achieve good generalization.

Conditional selective inference (SI) has been studied intensively as a new statistical inference framework for data-driven hypotheses. The basic concept of conditional SI is to make the inference conditional on the selection event, which enables an exact and valid statistical inference to be conducted even when the hypothesis is selected based on the data. Conditional SI has mainly been studied in the context of model selection, such as vanilla lasso or generalized lasso. The main limitation of existing approaches is the low statistical power owing to over-conditioning, which is required for computational tractability. In this study, we propose a more powerful and general conditional SI method for a class of problems that can be converted into quadratic parametric programming, which includes generalized lasso. The key concept is to compute the continuum path of the optimal solution in the direction of the selected test statistic and to identify the subset of the data space that corresponds to the model selection event by following the solution path. The proposed parametric programming-based method not only avoids the aforementioned major drawback of over-conditioning, but also improves the performance and practicality of SI in various respects. We conducted several experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed method.

As machine learning (ML) models find wide-spread application, there is a growing demand for interpretability: access to tools that help people see why the model made its decision. There are still many obstacles towards achieving this goal though, particularly in the context of deep learning. These obstacles stem from the scale of modern deep networks, as well as the complexity of even defining and assessing the (often context-dependent) desiderata of interpretability. Existing work on deep network interpretability has largely approached this problem from two perspectives. The first one seeks to uncover the concepts associated with specific neurons in the network, for example through visualization [Yos 15] or semantic labeling [Bau 17].

In this work, we consider the setting of learning problems under a wide class of spectral risk (or "L-risk") functions, where a Lipschitz-continuous spectral density is used to flexibly assign weight to extreme loss values. We obtain excess risk guarantees for a derivative-free learning procedure under unbounded heavy-tailed loss distributions, and propose a computationally efficient implementation which empirically outperforms traditional risk minimizers in terms of balancing spectral risk and misclassification error.

Marginal-likelihood based model-selection, even though promising, is rarely used in deep learning due to estimation difficulties. Instead, most approaches rely on validation data, which may not be readily available. In this work, we present a scalable marginal-likelihood estimation method to select both the hyperparameters and network architecture based on the training data alone. Some hyperparameters can be estimated online during training, simplifying the procedure. Our marginal-likelihood estimate is based on Laplace's method and Gauss-Newton approximations to the Hessian, and it outperforms cross-validation and manual-tuning on standard regression and image classification datasets, especially in terms of calibration and out-of-distribution detection. Our work shows that marginal likelihoods can improve generalization and be useful when validation data is unavailable (e.g., in nonstationary settings).

Approval of credit card application is one of the censorious business decision the bankers are usually taking regularly. The growing number of new card applications and the enormous outstanding amount of credit card bills during the recent pandemic make this even more challenging nowadays. Some of the previous studies suggest the usage of machine intelligence for automating the approval process to mitigate this challenge. However, the effectiveness of such automation may depend on the richness of the training dataset and model efficiency. We have recently developed a novel classifier named random wheel which provides a more interpretable output. In this work, we have used an enhanced version of random wheel to facilitate a trustworthy recommendation for credit card approval process. It not only produces more accurate and precise recommendation but also provides an interpretable confidence measure. Besides, it explains the machine recommendation for each credit card application as well. The availability of recommendation confidence and explanation could bring more trust in the machine provided intelligence which in turn can enhance the efficiency of the credit card approval process.

Over the past decade, wind energy has gained more attention in the world. However, owing to its indirectness and volatility properties, wind power penetration has increased the difficulty and complexity in dispatching and planning of electric power systems. Therefore, it is needed to make the high-precision wind power prediction in order to balance the electrical power. For this purpose, in this study, the prediction performance of linear regression, k-nearest neighbor regression and decision tree regression algorithms is compared in detail. k-nearest neighbor regression algorithm provides lower coefficient of determination values, while decision tree regression algorithm produces lower mean absolute error values. In addition, the meteorological parameters of wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure and air temperature are evaluated in terms of their importance on the wind power parameter. The biggest importance factor is achieved by wind speed parameter. In consequence, many useful assessments are made for wind power predictions.