Historically, both economists and philosophers have been preoccupied with extracting an understanding of cause and effect from empirical evidence. David Hume, an economist and philosopher, is renowned for exploring causality, both as an epistemological puzzle and as a matter of practical concern in applied economics. In an article titled "Causality in Economics and Econometrics", economics professor Kevin D. Hoover states, "economists inherited from Hume the sense that practical economics was essentially a causal science." (Hoover, 2006). As a capital "E" Empiricist, Hume was a major influence on the development of causality in economics; his skepticism created a tension between the "epistemological status of causal relations and their role in practical policy." (Hoover, 2006). In 1739, when Hume famously defined causation in the "Treatise of Human Nature", I doubt he would have been able to foresee the radical change wrought by the exponential progress of technological evolution. Nor could he have imagined our present-day reality where deep learning is used to determine cause and effect. Today, "causal science" is being driven by machine learning, however, it is still a nascent area and development has focused primarily on theory.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Reducing cycle time is a recurrent concern in the field of business process management. Depending on the process, various interventions may be triggered to reduce the cycle time of a case, for example, using a faster shipping service in an order-to-delivery process or giving a phone call to a customer to obtain missing information rather than waiting passively. Each of these interventions comes with a cost. This paper tackles the problem of determining if and when to trigger a time-reducing intervention in a way that maximizes the total net gain. The paper proposes a prescriptive process monitoring method that uses orthogonal random forest models to estimate the causal effect of triggering a time-reducing intervention for each ongoing case of a process. Based on this causal effect estimate, the method triggers interventions according to a user-defined policy. The method is evaluated on two real-life logs.

AI and data driven solutions have been applied to different fields with outperforming and promising results. In this research work we apply k-Nearest Neighbours, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest classifiers to direction detection problem of three cryptocurrency markets. Our input data includes price data and technical indicators. We use these classifiers to design a strategy to trade in those markets. Our test results on unseen data shows a great potential for this approach in helping investors with an expert system to exploit the market and gain profit. Our highest gain for an unseen 66 day span is 860 dollars per 1800 dollars investment. We also discuss limitations of these approaches and their potential impact to Efficient Market Hypothesis.

As larger and more comprehensive datasets become standard in contemporary machine learning, it becomes increasingly more difficult to obtain reliable, trustworthy label information with which to train sophisticated models. To address this problem, crowdsourcing has emerged as a popular, inexpensive, and efficient data mining solution for performing distributed label collection. However, crowdsourced annotations are inherently untrustworthy, as the labels are provided by anonymous volunteers who may have varying, unreliable expertise. Worse yet, some participants on commonly used platforms such as Amazon Mechanical Turk may be adversarial, and provide intentionally incorrect label information without the end user's knowledge. We discuss three conventional models of the label generation process, describing their parameterizations and the model-based approaches used to solve them. We then propose OpinionRank, a model-free, interpretable, graph-based spectral algorithm for integrating crowdsourced annotations into reliable labels for performing supervised or semi-supervised learning. Our experiments show that OpinionRank performs favorably when compared against more highly parameterized algorithms. We also show that OpinionRank is scalable to very large datasets and numbers of label sources, and requires considerably fewer computational resources than previous approaches.

Recently, maximizing mutual information has emerged as a powerful method for unsupervised graph representation learning. The existing methods are typically effective to capture information from the topology view but ignore the feature view. To circumvent this issue, we propose a novel approach by exploiting mutual information maximization across feature and topology views. Specifically, we first utilize a multi-view representation learning module to better capture both local and global information content across feature and topology views on graphs. To model the information shared by the feature and topology spaces, we then develop a common representation learning module using mutual information maximization and reconstruction loss minimization. To explicitly encourage diversity between graph representations from the same view, we also introduce a disagreement regularization to enlarge the distance between representations from the same view. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating feature and topology views. In particular, compared with the previous supervised methods, our proposed method can achieve comparable or even better performance under the unsupervised representation and linear evaluation protocol.

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm that enables a large number of resource-limited nodes to collaboratively train a model without data sharing. The non-independent-and-identically-distributed (non-i.i.d.) data samples invoke discrepancy between global and local objectives, making the FL model slow to converge. In this paper, we proposed Optimal Aggregation algorithm for better aggregation, which finds out the optimal subset of local updates of participating nodes in each global round, by identifying and excluding the adverse local updates via checking the relationship between the local gradient and the global gradient. Then, we proposed a Probabilistic Node Selection framework (FedPNS) to dynamically change the probability for each node to be selected based on the output of Optimal Aggregation. FedPNS can preferentially select nodes that propel faster model convergence. The unbiasedness of the proposed FedPNS design is illustrated and the convergence rate improvement of FedPNS over the commonly adopted Federated Averaging (FedAvg) algorithm is analyzed theoretically. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of FedPNS in accelerating the FL convergence rate, as compared to FedAvg with random node selection.

Ensembles of machine learning models yield improved system performance as well as robust and interpretable uncertainty estimates; however, their inference costs may often be prohibitively high. Ensemble Distribution Distillation is an approach that allows a single model to efficiently capture both the predictive performance and uncertainty estimates of an ensemble. For classification, this is achieved by training a Dirichlet distribution over the ensemble members' output distributions via the maximum likelihood criterion. Although theoretically principled, this criterion exhibits poor convergence when applied to large-scale tasks where the number of classes is very high. In our work, we analyze this effect and show that for the Dirichlet log-likelihood criterion classes with low probability induce larger gradients than high-probability classes. This forces the model to focus on the distribution of the ensemble tail-class probabilities. We propose a new training objective which minimizes the reverse KL-divergence to a Proxy-Dirichlet target derived from the ensemble. This loss resolves the gradient issues of Ensemble Distribution Distillation, as we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically on the ImageNet and WMT17 En-De datasets containing 1000 and 40,000 classes, respectively.

One of the most striking features of human cognition is the capacity to plan. Two aspects of human planning stand out: its efficiency, even in complex environments, and its flexibility, even in changing environments. Efficiency is especially impressive because directly computing an optimal plan is intractable, even for modestly complex tasks, and yet people successfully solve myriad everyday problems despite limited cognitive resources. Standard accounts in psychology, economics, and artificial intelligence have suggested this is because people have a mental representation of a task and then use heuristics to plan in that representation. However, this approach generally assumes that mental representations are fixed. Here, we propose that mental representations can be controlled and that this provides opportunities to adaptively simplify problems so they can be more easily reasoned about -- a process we refer to as construal. We construct a formal model of this process and, in a series of large, pre-registered behavioral experiments, show both that construal is subject to online cognitive control and that people form value-guided construals that optimally balance the complexity of a representation and its utility for planning and acting. These results demonstrate how strategically perceiving and conceiving problems facilitates the effective use of limited cognitive resources.

Recent studies on neural networks with pre-trained weights (i.e., BERT) have mainly focused on a low-dimensional subspace, where the embedding vectors computed from input words (or their contexts) are located. In this work, we propose a new approach to finding and regularizing the remainder of the space, referred to as out-of-manifold, which cannot be accessed through the words. Specifically, we synthesize the out-of-manifold embeddings based on two embeddings obtained from actually-observed words, to utilize them for fine-tuning the network. A discriminator is trained to detect whether an input embedding is located inside the manifold or not, and simultaneously, a generator is optimized to produce new embeddings that can be easily identified as out-of-manifold by the discriminator. These two modules successfully collaborate in a unified and end-to-end manner for regularizing the out-of-manifold. Our extensive evaluation on various text classification benchmarks demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach, as well as its good compatibility with existing data augmentation techniques which aim to enhance the manifold.