Automatic modulation classification enables intelligent communications and it is of crucial importance in today's and future wireless communication networks. Although many automatic modulation classification schemes have been proposed, they cannot tackle the intra-class diversity problem caused by the dynamic changes of the wireless communication environment. In order to overcome this problem, inspired by face recognition, a novel automatic modulation classification scheme is proposed by using the multi-scale network in this paper. Moreover, a novel loss function that combines the center loss and the cross entropy loss is exploited to learn both discriminative and separable features in order to further improve the classification performance. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that our proposed automatic modulation classification scheme can achieve better performance than the benchmark schemes in terms of the classification accuracy. The influence of the network parameters and the loss function with the two-stage training strategy on the classification accuracy of our proposed scheme are investigated. H. Zhang, F. Zhou, and Qihui Wu are with College of Electronic and Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106 China. They are also with Key Laboratory of Dynamic Cognitive System of Electromagnetic Spectrum Space (Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics), and with Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Nanjing, 211106, China (email: haozhangcn@nuaa.edu.cn, W. Wu is with the Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China, also with the Key Laboratory of Dynamic Cognitive System of Electromagnetic Spectrum Space, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China (e-mail: weiwu@njupt.edu.cn). R. Q. Hu is with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322 USA (e-mail: rosehu@ieee.org). ITH the commercial applications of the fifth generation (5G) wireless communication networks, the sixth generation (6G) wireless communication networks have received an increasing attention from both academia and industry [1] and [2]. Intelligent communication empowered by artificial intelligence is one of the most evident characteristics of 6G wireless communication systems. To realize this goal, it is of crucial importance to automatically recognize the modulation types [3].

Data scarcity is a tremendous challenge in causal effect estimation. In this paper, we propose to exploit additional data sources to facilitate estimating causal effects in the target population. Specifically, we leverage additional source datasets which share similar causal mechanisms with the target observations to help infer causal effects of the target population. We propose three levels of knowledge transfer, through modelling the outcomes, treatments, and confounders. To achieve consistent positive transfer, we introduce learnable parametric transfer factors to adaptively control the transfer strength, and thus achieving a fair and balanced knowledge transfer between the sources and the target. The proposed method can infer causal effects in the target population without prior knowledge of data discrepancy between the additional data sources and the target. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed method as compared with recent baselines.

In this paper, we propose an energy-efficient federated meta-learning framework. The objective is to enable learning a meta-model that can be fine-tuned to a new task with a few number of samples in a distributed setting and at low computation and communication energy consumption. We assume that each task is owned by a separate agent, so a limited number of tasks is used to train a meta-model. Assuming each task was trained offline on the agent's local data, we propose a lightweight algorithm that starts from the local models of all agents, and in a backward manner using projected stochastic gradient ascent (P-SGA) finds a meta-model. The proposed method avoids complex computations such as computing hessian, double looping, and matrix inversion, while achieving high performance at significantly less energy consumption compared to the state-of-the-art methods such as MAML and iMAML on conducted experiments for sinusoid regression and image classification tasks.

An automated system that could assist a judge in predicting the outcome of a case would help expedite the judicial process. For such a system to be practically useful, predictions by the system should be explainable. To promote research in developing such a system, we introduce ILDC (Indian Legal Documents Corpus). ILDC is a large corpus of 35k Indian Supreme Court cases annotated with original court decisions. A portion of the corpus (a separate test set) is annotated with gold standard explanations by legal experts. Based on ILDC, we propose the task of Court Judgment Prediction and Explanation (CJPE). The task requires an automated system to predict an explainable outcome of a case. We experiment with a battery of baseline models for case predictions and propose a hierarchical occlusion based model for explainability. Our best prediction model has an accuracy of 78% versus 94% for human legal experts, pointing towards the complexity of the prediction task. The analysis of explanations by the proposed algorithm reveals a significant difference in the point of view of the algorithm and legal experts for explaining the judgments, pointing towards scope for future research.

Sophisticated trajectory prediction models that effectively mimic team dynamics have many potential uses for sports coaches, broadcasters and spectators. However, through experiments on soccer data we found that it can be surprisingly challenging to train a deep learning model for player trajectory prediction which outperforms linear extrapolation on average distance between predicted and true future trajectories. We propose and test a novel method for improving training by predicting a sparse trajectory and interpolating using constant acceleration, which improves performance for several models. This interpolation can also be used on models that aren't trained with sparse outputs, and we find that this consistently improves performance for all tested models. Additionally, we find that the accuracy of predicted trajectories for a subset of players can be improved by conditioning on the full trajectories of the other players, and that this is further improved when combined with sparse predictions. We also propose a novel architecture using graph networks and multi-head attention (GraN-MA) which achieves better performance than other tested state-of-the-art models on our dataset and is trivially adapted for both sparse trajectories and full-trajectory conditioned trajectory prediction.

In machine learning we often encounter structured output prediction problems (SOPPs), i.e. problems where the output space admits a rich internal structure. Application domains where SOPPs naturally occur include natural language processing, speech recognition, and computer vision. Typical SOPPs have an extremely large label set, which grows exponentially as a function of the size of the output. Existing generalization analysis implies generalization bounds with at least a square-root dependency on the cardinality $d$ of the label set, which can be vacuous in practice. In this paper, we significantly improve the state of the art by developing novel high-probability bounds with a logarithmic dependency on $d$. Moreover, we leverage the lens of algorithmic stability to develop generalization bounds in expectation without any dependency on $d$. Our results therefore build a solid theoretical foundation for learning in large-scale SOPPs. Furthermore, we extend our results to learning with weakly dependent data.

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC). However, when MCMC is used for evolutionary parameter learning, convergence requires long runs with inefficient exploration of the state space. We introduce Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC), a powerful framework that establishes variational sequential search to learn distributions over intricate combinatorial structures. We then develop nested CSMC, an efficient proposal distribution for CSMC and prove that nested CSMC is an exact approximation to the (intractable) locally optimal proposal. We use nested CSMC to define a second objective, VNCSMC which yields tighter lower bounds than VCSMC. We show that VCSMC and VNCSMC are computationally efficient and explore higher probability spaces than existing methods on a range of tasks.

Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has worked with other federal agencies to identify counties with increasing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence (hotspots) and offers support to local health departments to limit the spread of the disease. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of hotspot events is of great importance to support policy decisions and prevent large-scale outbreaks. This paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian framework for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots (at the county level) in the United States. We assume both the observed number of cases and hotspots depend on a class of latent random variables, which encode the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. Such latent variables follow a zero-mean Gaussian process, whose covariance is specified by a non-stationary kernel function. The most salient feature of our kernel function is that deep neural networks are introduced to enhance the model's representative power while still enjoying the interpretability of the kernel. We derive a sparse model and fit the model using a variational learning strategy to circumvent the computational intractability for large data sets. Our model demonstrates better interpretability and superior hotspot-detection performance compared to other baseline methods.

Debiased machine learning is a meta algorithm based on bias correction and sample splitting to calculate confidence intervals for functionals (i.e. scalar summaries) of machine learning algorithms. For example, an analyst may desire the confidence interval for a treatment effect estimated with a neural network. We provide a nonasymptotic debiased machine learning theorem that encompasses any global or local functional of any machine learning algorithm that satisfies a few simple, interpretable conditions. Formally, we prove consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency by finite sample arguments. The rate of convergence is root-n for global functionals, and it degrades gracefully for local functionals. Our results culminate in a simple set of conditions that an analyst can use to translate modern learning theory rates into traditional statistical inference. The conditions reveal a new double robustness property for ill posed inverse problems.

The foundational concept of Max-Margin in machine learning is ill-posed for output spaces with more than two labels such as in structured prediction. In this paper, we show that the Max-Margin loss can only be consistent to the classification task under highly restrictive assumptions on the discrete loss measuring the error between outputs. These conditions are satisfied by distances defined in tree graphs, for which we prove consistency, thus being the first losses shown to be consistent for Max-Margin beyond the binary setting. We finally address these limitations by correcting the concept of Max-Margin and introducing the Restricted-Max-Margin, where the maximization of the loss-augmented scores is maintained, but performed over a subset of the original domain. The resulting loss is also a generalization of the binary support vector machine and it is consistent under milder conditions on the discrete loss.