In recent years, causal modelling has been used widely to improve generalization and to provide interpretability in machine learning models. To determine cause-effect relationships in the absence of a randomized trial, we can model causal systems with counterfactuals and interventions given enough domain knowledge. However, there are several cases where domain knowledge is almost absent and the only recourse is using a statistical method to estimate causal relationships. While there have been several works done in estimating causal relationships in unstructured data, we are yet to find a well-defined framework for estimating causal relationships in Knowledge Graphs (KG). It is commonly used to provide a semantic framework for data with complex inter-domain relationships. In this work, we define a hybrid approach that allows us to discover cause-effect relationships in KG. The proposed approach is based around the finding of the instantaneous causal structure of a non-experimental matrix using a non-Gaussian model, i.e; finding the causal ordering of the variables in a non-Gaussian setting. The non-experimental matrix is a low-dimensional tensor projection obtained by decomposing the adjacency tensor of a KG. We use two different pre-existing algorithms, one for the causal discovery and the other for decomposing the KG and combining them to get the causal structure in a KG.

Inferring social relations from dialogues is vital for building emotionally intelligent robots to interpret human language better and act accordingly. We model the social network as an And-or Graph, named SocAoG, for the consistency of relations among a group and leveraging attributes as inference cues. Moreover, we formulate a sequential structure prediction task, and propose an $\alpha$-$\beta$-$\gamma$ strategy to incrementally parse SocAoG for the dynamic inference upon any incoming utterance: (i) an $\alpha$ process predicting attributes and relations conditioned on the semantics of dialogues, (ii) a $\beta$ process updating the social relations based on related attributes, and (iii) a $\gamma$ process updating individual's attributes based on interpersonal social relations. Empirical results on DialogRE and MovieGraph show that our model infers social relations more accurately than the state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the ablation study shows the three processes complement each other, and the case study demonstrates the dynamic relational inference.

The goal of Multi-task Bayesian Optimization (MBO) is to minimize the number of queries required to accurately optimize a target black-box function, given access to offline evaluations of other auxiliary functions. When offline datasets are large, the scalability of prior approaches comes at the expense of expressivity and inference quality. We propose JUMBO, an MBO algorithm that sidesteps these limitations by querying additional data based on a combination of acquisition signals derived from training two Gaussian Processes (GP): a cold-GP operating directly in the input domain and a warm-GP that operates in the feature space of a deep neural network pretrained using the offline data. Such a decomposition can dynamically control the reliability of information derived from the online and offline data and the use of pretrained neural networks permits scalability to large offline datasets. Theoretically, we derive regret bounds for JUMBO and show that it achieves no-regret under conditions analogous to GP-UCB (Srinivas et. al. 2010). Empirically, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing approaches on two real-world optimization problems: hyper-parameter optimization and automated circuit design.

In this paper we study the statistical properties of Laplacian smoothing, a graph-based approach to nonparametric regression. Under standard regularity conditions, we establish upper bounds on the error of the Laplacian smoothing estimator $\widehat{f}$, and a goodness-of-fit test also based on $\widehat{f}$. These upper bounds match the minimax optimal estimation and testing rates of convergence over the first-order Sobolev class $H^1(\mathcal{X})$, for $\mathcal{X}\subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$ and $1 \leq d < 4$; in the estimation problem, for $d = 4$, they are optimal modulo a $\log n$ factor. Additionally, we prove that Laplacian smoothing is manifold-adaptive: if $\mathcal{X} \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$ is an $m$-dimensional manifold with $m < d$, then the error rate of Laplacian smoothing (in either estimation or testing) depends only on $m$, in the same way it would if $\mathcal{X}$ were a full-dimensional set in $\mathbb{R}^d$.

Iteratively reweighted least square (IRLS) is a popular approach to solve sparsity-enforcing regression problems in machine learning. State of the art approaches are more efficient but typically rely on specific coordinate pruning schemes. In this work, we show how a surprisingly simple reparametrization of IRLS, coupled with a bilevel resolution (instead of an alternating scheme) is able to achieve top performances on a wide range of sparsity (such as Lasso, group Lasso and trace norm regularizations), regularization strength (including hard constraints), and design matrices (ranging from correlated designs to differential operators). Similarly to IRLS, our method only involves linear systems resolutions, but in sharp contrast, corresponds to the minimization of a smooth function. Despite being non-convex, we show that there is no spurious minima and that saddle points are "ridable", so that there always exists a descent direction. We thus advocate for the use of a BFGS quasi-Newton solver, which makes our approach simple, robust and efficient. We perform a numerical benchmark of the convergence speed of our algorithm against state of the art solvers for Lasso, group Lasso, trace norm and linearly constrained problems. These results highlight the versatility of our approach, removing the need to use different solvers depending on the specificity of the ML problem under study.

We consider the problem of embedding a dynamic network, to obtain time-evolving vector representations of each node, which can then be used to describe the changes in behaviour of a single node, one or more communities, or the entire graph. Given this open-ended remit, we wish to guarantee stability in the spatio-temporal positioning of the nodes: assigning the same position, up to noise, to nodes behaving similarly at a given time (cross-sectional stability) and a constant position, up to noise, to a single node behaving similarly across different times (longitudinal stability). These properties are defined formally within a generic dynamic latent position model. By showing how this model can be recast as a multilayer random dot product graph, we demonstrate that unfolded adjacency spectral embedding satisfies both stability conditions, allowing, for example, spatio-temporal clustering under the dynamic stochastic block model. We also show how alternative methods, such as omnibus, independent or time-averaged spectral embedding, lack one or the other form of stability.

Recently, there have been several papers that discuss the extension of the Pinball loss Support Vector Machine (Pin-SVM) model, originally proposed by Huang et al.,[1][2]. Pin-SVM classifier deals with the pinball loss function, which has been defined in terms of the parameter $\tau$. The parameter $\tau$ can take values in $[ -1,1]$. The existing Pin-SVM model requires to solve the same optimization problem for all values of $\tau$ in $[ -1,1]$. In this paper, we improve the existing Pin-SVM model for the binary classification task. At first, we note that there is major difficulty in Pin-SVM model (Huang et al. [1]) for $ -1 \leq \tau < 0$. Specifically, we show that the Pin-SVM model requires the solution of different optimization problem for $ -1 \leq \tau < 0$. We further propose a unified model termed as Unified Pin-SVM which results in a QPP valid for all $-1\leq \tau \leq 1$ and hence more convenient to use. The proposed Unified Pin-SVM model can obtain a significant improvement in accuracy over the existing Pin-SVM model which has also been empirically justified by extensive numerical experiments with real-world datasets.

In this paper, we propose a novel sparse recovery method based on the generalized error function. The penalty function introduced involves both the shape and the scale parameters, making it very flexible. The theoretical analysis results in terms of the null space property, the spherical section property and the restricted invertibility factor are established for both constrained and unconstrained models. The practical algorithms via both the iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$ and the difference of convex functions algorithms are presented. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the improvement provided by the proposed approach in various scenarios. Its practical application in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reconstruction is studied as well.

We develop a distribution-free, unsupervised anomaly detection method called ECAD, which wraps around any regression algorithm and sequentially detects anomalies. Rooted in conformal prediction, ECAD does not require data exchangeability but approximately controls the Type-I error when data are normal. Computationally, it involves no data-splitting and efficiently trains ensemble predictors to increase statistical power. We demonstrate the superior performance of ECAD on detecting anomalous spatio-temporal traffic flow.

In this research a general theoretical framework for clustering is proposed over specific partial algebraic systems by the present author. Her theory helps in isolating minimal assumptions necessary for different concepts of clustering information in any form to be realized in a situation (and therefore in a semantics). It is well-known that of the limited number of proofs in the theory of hard and soft clustering that are known to exist, most involve statistical assumptions. Many methods seem to work because they seem to work in specific empirical practice. A new general rough method of analyzing clusterings is invented, and this opens the subject to clearer conceptions and contamination-free theoretical proofs. Numeric ideas of validation are also proposed to be replaced by those based on general rough approximation. The essential approach is explained in brief and supported by an example.