Meta-Learning promises to enable more data-efficient inference by harnessing previous experience from related learning tasks. While existing meta-learning methods help us to improve the accuracy of our predictions in face of data scarcity, they fail to supply reliable uncertainty estimates, often being grossly overconfident in their predictions. Addressing these shortcomings, we introduce a novel meta-learning framework, called F-PACOH, that treats meta-learned priors as stochastic processes and performs meta-level regularization directly in the function space. This allows us to directly steer the probabilistic predictions of the meta-learner towards high epistemic uncertainty in regions of insufficient meta-training data and, thus, obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Finally, we showcase how our approach can be integrated with sequential decision making, where reliable uncertainty quantification is imperative. In our benchmark study on meta-learning for Bayesian Optimization (BO), F-PACOH significantly outperforms all other meta-learners and standard baselines. Even in a challenging lifelong BO setting, where optimization tasks arrive one at a time and the meta-learner needs to build up informative prior knowledge incrementally, our proposed method demonstrates strong positive transfer.

We develop a new method of online inference for a vector of parameters estimated by the Polyak-Ruppert averaging procedure of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We leverage insights from time series regression in econometrics and construct asymptotically pivotal statistics via random scaling. Our approach is fully operational with online data and is rigorously underpinned by a functional central limit theorem. Our proposed inference method has a couple of key advantages over the existing methods. First, the test statistic is computed in an online fashion with only SGD iterates and the critical values can be obtained without any resampling methods, thereby allowing for efficient implementation suitable for massive online data. Second, there is no need to estimate the asymptotic variance and our inference method is shown to be robust to changes in the tuning parameters for SGD algorithms in simulation experiments with synthetic data.

Sparse linear regression is the well-studied inference problem where one is given a design matrix $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{M\times N}$ and a response vector $\mathbf{b} \in \mathbb{R}^M$, and the goal is to find a solution $\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^{N}$ which is $k$-sparse (that is, it has at most $k$ non-zero coordinates) and minimizes the prediction error $||\mathbf{A} \mathbf{x} - \mathbf{b}||_2$. On the one hand, the problem is known to be $\mathcal{NP}$-hard which tells us that no polynomial-time algorithm exists unless $\mathcal{P} = \mathcal{NP}$. On the other hand, the best known algorithms for the problem do a brute-force search among $N^k$ possibilities. In this work, we show that there are no better-than-brute-force algorithms, assuming any one of a variety of popular conjectures including the weighted $k$-clique conjecture from the area of fine-grained complexity, or the hardness of the closest vector problem from the geometry of numbers. We also show the impossibility of better-than-brute-force algorithms when the prediction error is measured in other $\ell_p$ norms, assuming the strong exponential-time hypothesis.

In this article, we'll talk about Microsoft AI, the pathway to learn for beginners who are curious to explore the Microsoft AI Platforms, various functionalities and features supported by Machine Learning Studio in Azure, and the processes to train and better the Machine Learning Models with Azure. We also learn about different algorithms and thus gain the overall knowledge to get started and work with Microsoft Azure AI. Check out the official website of the summit to register as an attendee or to be a speaker and share your knowledge with the community. Microsoft AI is a powerful framework that enables organizations, researchers, and non-profits to use AI technologies with its powerful framework which offers services and features across domains of Machine Learning, Robotics, Data Science, IoT, and many more. One of the advantages of Azure can be realized with this example of how Machine Learning becomes more scalable in the Cloud even while working on Notebooks.

In this chapter, we investigate whether unique, optimal decision boundaries can be found. In order to do so, we first have to revisit several fundamental mathematical principles. Regularization is a mathematical tool, which allows us to find unique solutions even for highly ill-posed problems. In order to use this trick, we review norms and how they can be used to steer regression problems. Rosenblatt's Perceptron and Multi-Layer Perceptrons which are also called Artificial Neural Networks inherently suffer from this ill-posedness.

Well known to the machine learning community, the random feature model is a parametric approximation to kernel interpolation or regression methods. It is typically used to approximate functions mapping a finite-dimensional input space to the real line. In this paper, we instead propose a methodology for use of the random feature model as a data-driven surrogate for operators that map an input Banach space to an output Banach space. Although the methodology is quite general, we consider operators defined by partial differential equations (PDEs); here, the inputs and outputs are themselves functions, with the input parameters being functions required to specify the problem, such as initial data or coefficients, and the outputs being solutions of the problem. Upon discretization, the model inherits several desirable attributes from this infinite-dimensional viewpoint, including mesh-invariant approximation error with respect to the true PDE solution map and the capability to be trained at one mesh resolution and then deployed at different mesh resolutions. We view the random feature model as a non-intrusive data-driven emulator, provide a mathematical framework for its interpretation, and demonstrate its ability to efficiently and accurately approximate the nonlinear parameter-to-solution maps of two prototypical PDEs arising in physical science and engineering applications: viscous Burgers' equation and a variable coefficient elliptic equation.

While many areas of machine learning have benefited from the increasing availability of large and varied datasets, the benefit to causal inference has been limited given the strong assumptions needed to ensure identifiability of causal effects; these are often not satisfied in real-world datasets. For example, many large observational datasets (e.g., case-control studies in epidemiology, click-through data in recommender systems) suffer from selection bias on the outcome, which makes the average treatment effect (ATE) unidentifiable. We propose a general algorithm to estimate causal effects from \emph{multiple} data sources, where the ATE may be identifiable only in some datasets but not others. The key idea is to construct control variates using the datasets in which the ATE is not identifiable. We show theoretically that this reduces the variance of the ATE estimate. We apply this framework to inference from observational data under outcome selection bias, assuming access to an auxiliary small dataset from which we can obtain a consistent estimate of the ATE. We construct a control variate by taking the difference of the odds ratio estimates from the two datasets. Across simulations and two case studies with real data, we show that this control variate can significantly reduce the variance of the ATE estimate.

Multi-regional interaction among neuronal populations underlies the brain's processing of rich sensory information in our daily lives. Recent neuroscience and neuroimaging studies have increasingly used naturalistic stimuli and experimental design to identify such realistic sensory computation in the brain. However, existing methods for cross-areal interaction analysis with dimensionality reduction, such as reduced-rank regression and canonical correlation analysis, have limited applicability and interpretability in naturalistic settings because they usually do not appropriately 'demix' neural interactions into those associated with different types of task parameters or stimulus features (e.g., visual or audio). In this paper, we develop a new method for cross-areal interaction analysis that uses the rich task or stimulus parameters to reveal how and what types of information are shared by different neural populations. The proposed neural demixed shared component analysis combines existing dimensionality reduction methods with a practical neural network implementation of functional analysis of variance with latent variables, thereby efficiently demixing nonlinear effects of continuous and multimodal stimuli. We also propose a simplifying alternative under the assumptions of linear effects and unimodal stimuli. To demonstrate our methods, we analyzed two human neuroimaging datasets of participants watching naturalistic videos of movies and dance movements. The results demonstrate that our methods provide new insights into multi-regional interaction in the brain during naturalistic sensory inputs, which cannot be captured by conventional techniques.

In real-world applications of influence maximization (IM), the network structure is often unknown. In this case, we may identify the most influential seed nodes by exploring only a part of the underlying network given a small budget for node queries. Motivated by the fact that collecting node metadata is more cost-effective than investigating the relationship between nodes via queried nodes, we develop IM-META, an end-to-end solution to IM in networks with unknown topology by retrieving information from both queries and node metadata. However, using such metadata to aid the IM process is not without risk due to the noisy nature of metadata and uncertainties in connectivity inference. To tackle these challenges, we formulate an IM problem that aims to find two sets, i.e., seed nodes and queried nodes. We propose an effective method that iteratively performs three steps: 1) we learn the relationship between collected metadata and edges via a Siamese neural network model, 2) we select a number of inferred influential edges to construct a reinforced graph used for discovering an optimal seed set, and 3) we identify the next node to query by maximizing the inferred influence spread using a topology-aware ranking strategy. By querying only 5% of nodes, IM-META reaches 93% of the upper bound performance.

Imbalanced classification on graphs is ubiquitous yet challenging in many real-world applications, such as fraudulent node detection. Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown promising performance on many network analysis tasks. However, most existing GNNs have almost exclusively focused on the balanced networks, and would get unappealing performance on the imbalanced networks. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we present a generative adversarial graph network model, called ImGAGN to address the imbalanced classification problem on graphs. It introduces a novel generator for graph structure data, named GraphGenerator, which can simulate both the minority class nodes' attribute distribution and network topological structure distribution by generating a set of synthetic minority nodes such that the number of nodes in different classes can be balanced. Then a graph convolutional network (GCN) discriminator is trained to discriminate between real nodes and fake (i.e., generated) nodes, and also between minority nodes and majority nodes on the synthetic balanced network. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, extensive experiments are conducted on four real-world imbalanced network datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method ImGAGN outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for semi-supervised imbalanced node classification task.