Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.

We introduce a new scalable variational Gaussian process approximation which provides a high fidelity approximation while retaining general applicability. We propose the harmonic kernel decomposition (HKD), which uses Fourier series to decompose a kernel as a sum of orthogonal kernels. Our variational approximation exploits this orthogonality to enable a large number of inducing points at a low computational cost. We demonstrate that, on a range of regression and classification problems, our approach can exploit input space symmetries such as translations and reflections, and it significantly outperforms standard variational methods in scalability and accuracy. Notably, our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on CIFAR-10 among pure GP models.

Fair representation learning is an attractive approach that promises fairness of downstream predictors by encoding sensitive data. Unfortunately, recent work has shown that strong adversarial predictors can still exhibit unfairness by recovering sensitive attributes from these representations. In this work, we present Fair Normalizing Flows (FNF), a new approach offering more rigorous fairness guarantees for learned representations. Specifically, we consider a practical setting where we can estimate the probability density for sensitive groups. The key idea is to model the encoder as a normalizing flow trained to minimize the statistical distance between the latent representations of different groups. The main advantage of FNF is that its exact likelihood computation allows us to obtain guarantees on the maximum unfairness of any potentially adversarial downstream predictor. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of FNF in enforcing various group fairness notions, as well as other attractive properties such as interpretability and transfer learning, on a variety of challenging real-world datasets.

In this paper, we propose a realistic multiple dynamic pricing approach to demand response in the retail market. First, an adaptive clustering-based customer segmentation framework is proposed to categorize customers into different groups to enable the effective identification of usage patterns. Second, customized demand models with important market constraints which capture the price-demand relationship explicitly, are developed for each group of customers to improve the model accuracy and enable meaningful pricing. Third, the multiple pricing based demand response is formulated as a profit maximization problem subject to realistic market constraints. The overall aim of the proposed scalable and practical method aims to achieve 'right' prices for 'right' customers so as to benefit various stakeholders in the system such as grid operators, customers and retailers. The proposed multiple pricing framework is evaluated via simulations based on real-world datasets.

We study the widely used hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) algorithm on edge-weighted graphs. We define an algorithmic framework for hierarchical agglomerative graph clustering that provides the first efficient $\tilde{O}(m)$ time exact algorithms for classic linkage measures, such as complete- and WPGMA-linkage, as well as other measures. Furthermore, for average-linkage, arguably the most popular variant of HAC, we provide an algorithm that runs in $\tilde{O}(n\sqrt{m})$ time. For this variant, this is the first exact algorithm that runs in subquadratic time, as long as $m=n^{2-\epsilon}$ for some constant $\epsilon > 0$. We complement this result with a simple $\epsilon$-close approximation algorithm for average-linkage in our framework that runs in $\tilde{O}(m)$ time. As an application of our algorithms, we consider clustering points in a metric space by first using $k$-NN to generate a graph from the point set, and then running our algorithms on the resulting weighted graph. We validate the performance of our algorithms on publicly available datasets, and show that our approach can speed up clustering of point datasets by a factor of 20.7--76.5x.

We study fair classification in the presence of an omniscient adversary that, given an $\eta$, is allowed to choose an arbitrary $\eta$-fraction of the training samples and arbitrarily perturb their protected attributes. The motivation comes from settings in which protected attributes can be incorrect due to strategic misreporting, malicious actors, or errors in imputation; and prior approaches that make stochastic or independence assumptions on errors may not satisfy their guarantees in this adversarial setting. Our main contribution is an optimization framework to learn fair classifiers in this adversarial setting that comes with provable guarantees on accuracy and fairness. Our framework works with multiple and non-binary protected attributes, is designed for the large class of linear-fractional fairness metrics, and can also handle perturbations besides protected attributes. We prove near-tightness of our framework's guarantees for natural hypothesis classes: no algorithm can have significantly better accuracy and any algorithm with better fairness must have lower accuracy. Empirically, we evaluate the classifiers produced by our framework for statistical rate on real-world and synthetic datasets for a family of adversaries.

Recovery of support of a sparse vector from simple measurements is a widely studied problem, considered under the frameworks of compressed sensing, 1-bit compressed sensing, and more general single index models. We consider generalizations of this problem: mixtures of linear regressions, and mixtures of linear classifiers, where the goal is to recover supports of multiple sparse vectors using only a small number of possibly noisy linear, and 1-bit measurements respectively. The key challenge is that the measurements from different vectors are randomly mixed. Both of these problems were also extensively studied recently. In mixtures of linear classifiers, the observations correspond to the side of queried hyperplane a random unknown vector lies in, whereas in mixtures of linear regressions we observe the projection of a random unknown vector on the queried hyperplane. The primary step in recovering the unknown vectors from the mixture is to first identify the support of all the individual component vectors. In this work, we study the number of measurements sufficient for recovering the supports of all the component vectors in a mixture in both these models. We provide algorithms that use a number of measurements polynomial in $k, \log n$ and quasi-polynomial in $\ell$, to recover the support of all the $\ell$ unknown vectors in the mixture with high probability when each individual component is a $k$-sparse $n$-dimensional vector.

Variational Bayes (VB) is a critical method in machine learning and statistics, underpinning the recent success of Bayesian deep learning. The natural gradient is an essential component of efficient VB estimation, but it is prohibitively computationally expensive in high dimensions. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to improve the scaling properties of natural gradient computation and make VB a truly computationally efficient method for Bayesian inference in highdimensional settings. The algorithm leverages matrix inversion from the linear systems algorithm by Harrow, Hassidim, and Lloyd [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 15 (2009)] (HHL). We demonstrate that the matrix to be inverted is sparse and the classical-quantum-classical handoffs are sufficiently economical to preserve computational efficiency, making the problem of natural gradient for VB an ideal application of HHL. We prove that, under standard conditions, the VB algorithm with quantum natural gradient is guaranteed to converge.

We study the behavior of linear discriminant functions for binary classification in the infinite-imbalance limit, where the sample size of one class grows without bound while the sample size of the other remains fixed. The coefficients of the classifier minimize an expected loss specified through a weight function. We show that for a broad class of weight functions, the intercept diverges but the rest of the coefficient vector has a finite limit under infinite imbalance, extending prior work on logistic regression. The limit depends on the left tail of the weight function, for which we distinguish three cases: bounded, asymptotically polynomial, and asymptotically exponential. The limiting coefficient vectors reflect robustness or conservatism properties in the sense that they optimize against certain worst-case alternatives. In the bounded and polynomial cases, the limit is equivalent to an implicit choice of upsampling distribution for the minority class. We apply these ideas in a credit risk setting, with particular emphasis on performance in the high-sensitivity and high-specificity regions.

Survival analysis has gained significant attention in the medical domain and has many far-reaching applications. Although a variety of machine learning methods have been introduced for tackling time-to-event prediction in unstructured data with complex dependencies, clustering of survival data remains an under-explored problem. The latter is particularly helpful in discovering patient subpopulations whose survival is regulated by different generative mechanisms, a critical problem in precision medicine. To this end, we introduce a novel probabilistic approach to cluster survival data in a variational deep clustering setting. Our proposed method employs a deep generative model to uncover the underlying distribution of both the explanatory variables and the potentially censored survival times. We compare our model to the related work on survival clustering in comprehensive experiments on a range of synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets. Our proposed method performs better at identifying clusters and is competitive at predicting survival times in terms of the concordance index and relative absolute error. To further demonstrate the usefulness of our approach, we show that our method identifies meaningful clusters from an observational cohort of hemodialysis patients that are consistent with previous clinical findings.