Attributed network embedding (ANE) is to learn low-dimensional vectors so that not only the network structure but also node attributes can be preserved in the embedding space. Existing ANE models do not consider the specific combination between graph structure and attributes. While each node has its structural characteristics, such as highly-interconnected neighbors along with their certain patterns of attribute distribution, each node's neighborhood should be not only depicted by multi-hop nodes, but consider certain clusters or social circles. To model such information, in this paper, we propose a novel ANE model, Context Co-occurrence-aware Attributed Network Embedding (CoANE). The basic idea of CoANE is to model the context attributes that each node's involved diverse patterns, and apply the convolutional mechanism to encode positional information by treating each attribute as a channel. The learning of context co-occurrence can capture the latent social circles of each node. To better encode structural and semantic knowledge of nodes, we devise a three-way objective function, consisting of positive graph likelihood, contextual negative sampling, and attribute reconstruction. We conduct experiments on five real datasets in the tasks of link prediction, node label classification, and node clustering. The results exhibit that CoANE can significantly outperform state-of-the-art ANE models.

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its importance for severe weather warnings. Here, we provide a comprehensive review and systematic comparison of eight statistical and machine learning methods for probabilistic wind gust forecasting via ensemble postprocessing, that can be divided in three groups: State of the art postprocessing techniques from statistics (ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), member-by-member postprocessing, isotonic distributional regression), established machine learning methods (gradient-boosting extended EMOS, quantile regression forests) and neural network-based approaches (distributional regression network, Bernstein quantile network, histogram estimation network). The methods are systematically compared using six years of data from a high-resolution, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system that was run operationally at the German weather service, and hourly observations at 175 surface weather stations in Germany. While all postprocessing methods yield calibrated forecasts and are able to correct the systematic errors of the raw ensemble predictions, incorporating information from additional meteorological predictor variables beyond wind gusts leads to significant improvements in forecast skill. In particular, we propose a flexible framework of locally adaptive neural networks with different probabilistic forecast types as output, which not only significantly outperform all benchmark postprocessing methods but also learn physically consistent relations associated with the diurnal cycle, especially the evening transition of the planetary boundary layer.

To understand the behavior of large dynamical systems like transportation networks, one must often rely on measurements transmitted by a set of sensors, for instance individual vehicles. Such measurements are likely to be incomplete and imprecise, which makes it hard to recover the underlying signal of interest.Hoping to quantify this phenomenon, we study the properties of a partially-observed state-space model. In our setting, the latent state $X$ follows a high-dimensional Vector AutoRegressive process $X_t = \theta X_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t$. Meanwhile, the observations $Y$ are given by a noise-corrupted random sample from the state $Y_t = \Pi_t X_t + \eta_t$. Several random sampling mechanisms are studied, allowing us to investigate the effect of spatial and temporal correlations in the distribution of the sampling matrices $\Pi_t$.We first prove a lower bound on the minimax estimation error for the transition matrix $\theta$. We then describe a sparse estimator based on the Dantzig selector and upper bound its non-asymptotic error, showing that it achieves the optimal convergence rate for most of our sampling mechanisms. Numerical experiments on simulated time series validate our theoretical findings, while an application to open railway data highlights the relevance of this model for public transport traffic analysis.

We consider interpolation learning in high-dimensional linear regression with Gaussian data, and prove a generic uniform convergence guarantee on the generalization error of interpolators in an arbitrary hypothesis class in terms of the class's Gaussian width. Applying the generic bound to Euclidean norm balls recovers the consistency result of Bartlett et al. (2020) for minimum-norm interpolators, and confirms a prediction of Zhou et al. (2020) for near-minimal-norm interpolators in the special case of Gaussian data. We demonstrate the generality of the bound by applying it to the simplex, obtaining a novel consistency result for minimum l1-norm interpolators (basis pursuit). Our results show how norm-based generalization bounds can explain and be used to analyze benign overfitting, at least in some settings.

Modeling a system's temporal behaviour in reaction to external stimuli is a fundamental problem in many areas. Pure Machine Learning (ML) approaches often fail in the small sample regime and cannot provide actionable insights beyond predictions. A promising modification has been to incorporate expert domain knowledge into ML models. The application we consider is predicting the progression of disease under medications, where a plethora of domain knowledge is available from pharmacology. Pharmacological models describe the dynamics of carefully-chosen medically meaningful variables in terms of systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). However, these models only describe a limited collection of variables, and these variables are often not observable in clinical environments. To close this gap, we propose the latent hybridisation model (LHM) that integrates a system of expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs to fully describe the dynamics of the system and to link the expert and latent variables to observable quantities. We evaluated LHM on synthetic data as well as real-world intensive care data of COVID-19 patients. LHM consistently outperforms previous works, especially when few training samples are available such as at the beginning of the pandemic.

When I started reading articles on neural networks, I faced a lot of struggles to understand the basics behind neural networks and how they work. Start reading more and more articles on the internet, grab those key points, and put them together into private notes for me. And, I thought to publish them for better understandings to others. It would be fun to know the basics of any domain. The perceptron is one of the simplest ANN Architectures, invented in 1957 by Frank Rosenblatt.

Machine learning and statistics have many applications in business and the social sciences. However, the theory is often intimidating and not easily understood. In this series of articles, I aim to demystify the concepts behind the common tools used in data science and machine learning, starting with linear regression. Linear regression is a statistical method that allows us to describe relationships between variables (distinct things that can be measured or recorded, such as height, weight, and hair colour). It is an extension of the General Linear Model, a framework to describe how a variable of interest can be modelled using other predictor variables. In simple linear regression (SLR), we focus on the relationship between two continuous variables, x and y (hence, simple).

Abstract--Large-scale distributed deep learning training has enabled developments of more complex deep neural network models to learn from larger datasets for sophisticated tasks. In particular, distributed stochastic gradient descent intensively invokes all-reduce operations for gradient update, which dominates communication time during iterative training epochs. In this work, we identify the inefficiency in widely used allreduce algorithms, and the opportunity of algorithm-architecture co-design. We propose MULTITREE all-reduce algorithm with topology and resource utilization awareness for efficient and scalable all-reduce operations, which is applicable to different interconnect topologies. Moreover, we co-design the network interface to schedule and coordinate the all-reduce messages for contention-free communications, working in synergy with the algorithm. The flow control is also simplified to exploit the bulk data transfer of big gradient exchange. We evaluate the co-design using different all-reduce data sizes for synthetic study, demonstrating its effectiveness on various interconnection network topologies, in addition to state-of-the-art deep neural networks for real workload experiments. The results show that MULTITREE achieves 2.3 and 1.56 communication speedup, as well as up to 81% and 30% training time reduction compared to ring all-reduce and state-of-the-art approaches, respectively.

Sparse linear regression is a fundamental problem in high-dimensional statistics, but strikingly little is known about how to efficiently solve it without restrictive conditions on the design matrix. We consider the (correlated) random design setting, where the covariates are independently drawn from a multivariate Gaussian $N(0,\Sigma)$ with $\Sigma : n \times n$, and seek estimators $\hat{w}$ minimizing $(\hat{w}-w^*)^T\Sigma(\hat{w}-w^*)$, where $w^*$ is the $k$-sparse ground truth. Information theoretically, one can achieve strong error bounds with $O(k \log n)$ samples for arbitrary $\Sigma$ and $w^*$; however, no efficient algorithms are known to match these guarantees even with $o(n)$ samples, without further assumptions on $\Sigma$ or $w^*$. As far as hardness, computational lower bounds are only known with worst-case design matrices. Random-design instances are known which are hard for the Lasso, but these instances can generally be solved by Lasso after a simple change-of-basis (i.e. preconditioning). In this work, we give upper and lower bounds clarifying the power of preconditioning in sparse linear regression. First, we show that the preconditioned Lasso can solve a large class of sparse linear regression problems nearly optimally: it succeeds whenever the dependency structure of the covariates, in the sense of the Markov property, has low treewidth -- even if $\Sigma$ is highly ill-conditioned. Second, we construct (for the first time) random-design instances which are provably hard for an optimally preconditioned Lasso. In fact, we complete our treewidth classification by proving that for any treewidth-$t$ graph, there exists a Gaussian Markov Random Field on this graph such that the preconditioned Lasso, with any choice of preconditioner, requires $\Omega(t^{1/20})$ samples to recover $O(\log n)$-sparse signals when covariates are drawn from this model.

Many experts argue that the future of artificial intelligence is limited by the field's ability to integrate symbolic logical reasoning into deep learning architectures. The recently proposed differentiable MAXSAT solver, SATNet, was a breakthrough in its capacity to integrate with a traditional neural network and solve visual reasoning problems. For instance, it can learn the rules of Sudoku purely from image examples. Despite its success, SATNet was shown to succumb to a key challenge in neurosymbolic systems known as the Symbol Grounding Problem: the inability to map visual inputs to symbolic variables without explicit supervision ("label leakage"). In this work, we present a self-supervised pre-training pipeline that enables SATNet to overcome this limitation, thus broadening the class of problems that SATNet architectures can solve to include datasets where no intermediary labels are available at all. We demonstrate that our method allows SATNet to attain full accuracy even with a harder problem setup that prevents any label leakage. We additionally introduce a proofreading method that further improves the performance of SATNet architectures, beating the state-of-the-art on Visual Sudoku.