Statistical Learning
Explainable AI (XAI) for PHM of Industrial Asset: A State-of-The-Art, PRISMA-Compliant Systematic Review
NOR, Ahmad Kamal BIN MOHD, PEDAPATI, Srinivasa Rao, MUHAMMAD, Masdi
A state-of-the-art systematic review on XAI applied to Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) of industrial asset is presented. The work attempts to provide an overview of the general trend of XAI in PHM, answers the question of accuracy versus explainability, investigates the extent of human role, explainability evaluation and uncertainty management in PHM XAI. Research articles linked to PHM XAI, in English language, from 2015 to 2021 are selected from IEEE Xplore, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, ACM Digital Library and Scopus databases using PRISMA guidelines. Data was extracted from 35 selected articles and examined using MS. Excel. Several findings were synthesized. Firstly, while the discipline is still young, the analysis indicates the growing acceptance of XAI in PHM domain. Secondly, XAI functions as a double edge sword, where it is assimilated as a tool to execute PHM tasks as well as a mean of explanation, in particular in diagnostic and anomaly detection. There is thus a need for XAI in PHM. Thirdly, the review shows that PHM XAI papers produce either good or excellent results in general, suggesting that PHM performance is unaffected by XAI. Fourthly, human role, explainability metrics and uncertainty management are areas requiring further attention by the PHM community. Adequate explainability metrics to cater for PHM need are urgently needed. Finally, most case study featured on the accepted articles are based on real, indicating that available AI and XAI approaches are equipped to solve complex real-world challenges, increasing the confidence of AI model adoption in the industry. This work is funded by the Universiti Teknologi Petronas Foundation.
Bag of Tricks for Neural Architecture Search
Elsken, Thomas, Staffler, Benedikt, Zela, Arber, Metzen, Jan Hendrik, Hutter, Frank
This allows to search for architectures by using alternating stochastic gradient descent, which (in each batch) iterates While neural architecture search methods have been successful updates of the network parameters and the real-valued in previous years and led to new state-of-the-art performance weights parameterizing the architecture. However, directly on various problems, they have also been criticized using this alternating optimization has been reported to lead for being unstable, being highly sensitive with respect to premature convergence in the architectural space [26].
Statistical Modelling of Level Difficulty in Puzzle Games
Kristensen, Jeppe Theiss, Valdivia, Arturo, Burelli, Paolo
Successful and accurate modelling of level difficulty is a fundamental component of the operationalisation of player experience as difficulty is one of the most important and commonly used signals for content design and adaptation. In games that feature intermediate milestones, such as completable areas or levels, difficulty is often defined by the probability of completion or completion rate; however, this operationalisation is limited in that it does not describe the behaviour of the player within the area. In this research work, we formalise a model of level difficulty for puzzle games that goes beyond the classical probability of success. We accomplish this by describing the distribution of actions performed within a game level using a parametric statistical model thus creating a richer descriptor of difficulty. The model is fitted and evaluated on a dataset collected from the game Lily's Garden by Tactile Games, and the results of the evaluation show that the it is able to describe and explain difficulty in a vast majority of the levels.
Total Nitrogen Estimation in Agricultural Soils via Aerial Multispectral Imaging and LIBS
Measuring soil health indicators is an important and challenging task that affects farmers' decisions on timing, placement, and quantity of fertilizers applied in the farms. Most existing methods to measure soil health indicators (SHIs) are in-lab wet chemistry or spectroscopy-based methods, which require significant human input and effort, time-consuming, costly, and are low-throughput in nature. To address this challenge, we develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven near real-time unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral sensing (UMS) solution to estimate total nitrogen (TN) of the soil, an important macro-nutrient or SHI that directly affects the crop health. Accurate prediction of soil TN can significantly increase crop yield through informed decision making on the timing of seed planting, and fertilizer quantity and timing. We train two machine learning models including multi-layer perceptron and support vector machine to predict the soil nitrogen using a suite of data classes including multispectral characteristics of the soil and crops in red, near-infrared, and green spectral bands, computed vegetation indices, and environmental variables including air temperature and relative humidity.
eQTL mapping using allele-specific gene expression
Using information from allele-specific gene expression (ASE) can sub-stantially improve the power to map gene expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). However, such practice has been limited, partly due to high computational cost and the requirement to access raw data that can take a large amount of storage space. To address these computational challenges, we have developed a computational framework that uses a statistical method named TReCASE as its computational engine, and it is computationally feasible for large scale analysis. We applied it to map eQTLs in 28 human tissues using the data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. Compared with a popular linear regression method that does not use ASE data, TReCASE can double the number of eGenes (i.e., genes with at least one significant eQTL) when sample size is relatively small, e.g., n 200.
Model Selection for Generic Contextual Bandits
Ghosh, Avishek, Sankararaman, Abishek, Ramchandran, Kannan
We consider the problem of model selection for the general stochastic contextual bandits under the realizability assumption. We propose a successive refinement based algorithm called Adaptive Contextual Bandit ({\ttfamily ACB}), that works in phases and successively eliminates model classes that are too simple to fit the given instance. We prove that this algorithm is adaptive, i.e., the regret rate order-wise matches that of {\ttfamily FALCON}, the state-of-art contextual bandit algorithm of Levi et. al '20, that needs knowledge of the true model class. The price of not knowing the correct model class is only an additive term contributing to the second order term in the regret bound. This cost possess the intuitive property that it becomes smaller as the model class becomes easier to identify, and vice-versa. We then show that a much simpler explore-then-commit (ETC) style algorithm also obtains a regret rate of matching that of {\ttfamily FALCON}, despite not knowing the true model class. However, the cost of model selection is higher in ETC as opposed to in {\ttfamily ACB}, as expected. Furthermore, {\ttfamily ACB} applied to the linear bandit setting with unknown sparsity, order-wise recovers the model selection guarantees previously established by algorithms tailored to the linear setting.
Humans as Path-Finders for Safe Navigation
Antonucci, Alessandro, Bevilacqua, Paolo, Leonardi, Stefano, Palopoli, Luigi, Fontanelli, Daniele
One of the most important barriers toward a widespread use of mobile robots in unstructured and human populated work environments is the ability to plan a safe path. In this paper, we propose to delegate this activity to a human operator that walks in front of the robot marking with her/his footsteps the path to be followed. The implementation of this approach requires a high degree of robustness in locating the specific person to be followed (the leader). We propose a three phase approach to fulfil this goal: 1. identification and tracking of the person in the image space, 2. sensor fusion between camera data and laser sensors, 3. point interpolation with continuous curvature curves. The approach is described in the paper and extensively validated with experimental results.
Combined Global and Local Search for Optimization with Gaussian Process Models
Meng, Qun, Wang, Songhao, Ng, Szu Hui
Gaussian process (GP) model based optimization is widely applied in simulation and machine learning. In general, it first estimates a GP model based on a few observations from the true response and then employs this model to guide the search, aiming to quickly locate the global optimum. Despite its successful applications, it has several limitations that may hinder its broader usage. First, building an accurate GP model can be difficult and computationally expensive, especially when the response function is multi-modal or varies significantly over the design space. Second, even with an appropriate model, the search process can be trapped in suboptimal regions before moving to the global optimum due to the excessive effort spent around the current best solution. In this work, we adopt the Additive Global and Local GP (AGLGP) model in the optimization framework. The model is rooted in the inducing-points-based GP sparse approximations and is combined with independent local models in different regions. With these properties, the AGLGP model is suitable for multi-modal responses with relatively large data sizes. Based on this AGLGP model, we propose a Combined Global and Local search for Optimization (CGLO) algorithm. It first divides the whole design space into disjoint local regions and identifies a promising region with the global model. Next, a local model in the selected region is fit to guide detailed search within this region. The algorithm then switches back to the global step when a good local solution is found. The global and local natures of CGLO enable it to enjoy the benefits of both global and local search to efficiently locate the global optimum.
MD-split+: Practical Local Conformal Inference in High Dimensions
Quantifying uncertainty in model predictions is a common goal for practitioners seeking more than just point predictions. One tool for uncertainty quantification that requires minimal assumptions is conformal inference, which can help create probabilistically valid prediction regions for black box models. Classical conformal prediction only provides marginal validity, whereas in many situations locally valid prediction regions are desirable. Deciding how best to partition the feature space X when applying localized conformal prediction is still an open question. We present MD-split+, a practical local conformal approach that creates X partitions based on localized model performance of conditional density estimation models. Our method handles complex real-world data settings where such models may be misspecified, and scales to high-dimensional inputs. We discuss how our local partitions philosophically align with expected behavior from an unattainable conditional conformal inference approach. We also empirically compare our method against other local conformal approaches.
A Simplified Framework for Air Route Clustering Based on ADS-B Data
Duong, Quan, Tran, Tan, Pham, Duc-Thinh, Mai, An
The volume of flight traffic gets increasing over the time, which makes the strategic traffic flow management become one of the challenging problems since it requires a lot of computational resources to model entire traffic data. On the other hand, Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) technology has been considered as a promising data technology to provide both flight crews and ground control staff the necessary information safely and efficiently about the position and velocity of the airplanes in a specific area. In the attempt to tackle this problem, we presented in this paper a simplified framework that can support to detect the typical air routes between airports based on ADS-B data. Specifically, the flight traffic will be classified into major groups based on similarity measures, which helps to reduce the number of flight paths between airports. As a matter of fact, our framework can be taken into account to reduce practically the computational cost for air flow optimization and evaluate the operational performance. Finally, in order to illustrate the potential applications of our proposed framework, an experiment was performed using ADS-B traffic flight data of three different pairs of airports. The detected typical routes between each couple of airports show promising results by virtue of combining two indices for measuring the clustering performance and incorporating human judgment into the visual inspection.