A gradient simply measures the change in all weights with regard to the change in error. You can also think of a gradient as the slope of a function. The higher the gradient, the steeper the slope, and the faster a model can learn. But if the slope is zero, the model stops learning. In mathematical terms, a gradient is a partial derivative with respect to its inputs.

In this article, we are looking into predictive maintenance for pump sensor data. Our approach is quite generic towards time-series analysis, even though each step might look slightly different in your own project. The idea is to give you an idea about the general thought process and how you would attack such a problem. For a complete overview of the steps, please see the figure at the end of the article (maybe open it in parallel while reading). It should help to organize all steps in a logical order. If you have a similar project and simply are searching for a walkthrough, you can just check out the code on Github and adapt it to your needs. To limit the article length, of course, a lot of points are just mentioned and not deep-dived. However, we point to relevant articles on the details.

This code pattern uses a German Credit data set to create a logistic regression model using Azure. The pattern uses Watson OpenScale to bind the machine learning model deployed in the Azure cloud, create a subscription, and perform payload and feedback logging. With Watson OpenScale, you can monitor model quality and log payloads, regardless of where the model is hosted. This code pattern uses an example of an Azure model, which demonstrates the independent and open nature of Watson OpenScale. IBM Watson OpenScale is an open environment that enables organizations to automate and operationalize their AI.

While building a machine learning model, data scaling in machine learning is the most significant element through data pre-processing. Scaling may recognize the difference between a model of poor machine learning and a stronger one. Machine learning algorithm only recognizes numerical if there is a significant difference in the dimension, say few varying in tens or hundreds or often in thousands, among these predominant numbers when the data is used before scaling, it attempts to play a more significant role while preparing the ML model. For machine learning algorithms, data scaling is important in calculating intervals between data and evaluating the variables with their meaning compared to an arbitrary lower-value variable. Another explanation why data scaling science is used is that few algorithms perform better with data scaling than without them, such as Neural network nonlinear regression.

I'm super excited to introduce the new panel data forecasting functionality in modeltime. Just say NO to for-loops for forecasting. Fitting many time series can be an expensive process. The most widely-accepted technique is to iteratively run an ARIMA model on each time series in a for-loop. Organizations now need 1000's of forecasts.

Gradient descent (GD) type optimization methods are the standard instrument to train artificial neural networks (ANNs) with rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation. Despite the great success of GD type optimization methods in numerical simulations for the training of ANNs with ReLU activation, it remains - even in the simplest situation of the plain vanilla GD optimization method with random initializations and ANNs with one hidden layer - an open problem to prove (or disprove) the conjecture that the risk of the GD optimization method converges in the training of such ANNs to zero as the width of the ANNs, the number of independent random initializations, and the number of GD steps increase to infinity. In this article we prove this conjecture in the situation where the probability distribution of the input data is equivalent to the continuous uniform distribution on a compact interval, where the probability distributions for the random initializations of the ANN parameters are standard normal distributions, and where the target function under consideration is continuous and piecewise affine linear. Roughly speaking, the key ingredients in our mathematical convergence analysis are (i) to prove that suitable sets of global minima of the risk functions are \emph{twice continuously differentiable submanifolds of the ANN parameter spaces}, (ii) to prove that the Hessians of the risk functions on these sets of global minima satisfy an appropriate \emph{maximal rank condition}, and, thereafter, (iii) to apply the machinery in [Fehrman, B., Gess, B., Jentzen, A., Convergence rates for the stochastic gradient descent method for non-convex objective functions. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 21(136): 1--48, 2020] to establish convergence of the GD optimization method with random initializations.

Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can lead to poor estimation and variable selection. The Bayesian framework makes it straightforward to simultaneously express sparsity, nonlinearity, and interactions in a hierarchical model. But, as for the few other methods that handle this trifecta, inference is computationally intractable - with runtime at least quadratic in the number of covariates, and often worse. In the present work, we solve this computational bottleneck. We first show that suitable Bayesian models can be represented as Gaussian processes (GPs). We then demonstrate how a kernel trick can reduce computation with these GPs to O(# covariates) time for both variable selection and estimation. Our resulting fit corresponds to a sparse orthogonal decomposition of the regression function in a Hilbert space (i.e., a functional ANOVA decomposition), where interaction effects represent all variation that cannot be explained by lower-order effects. On a variety of synthetic and real datasets, our approach outperforms existing methods used for large, high-dimensional datasets while remaining competitive (or being orders of magnitude faster) in runtime.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) exhibits strong algorithmic regularization effects in practice, which has been hypothesized to play an important role in the generalization of modern machine learning approaches. In this work, we seek to understand these issues in the simpler setting of linear regression (including both underparameterized and overparameterized regimes), where our goal is to make sharp instance-based comparisons of the implicit regularization afforded by (unregularized) average SGD with the explicit regularization of ridge regression. For a broad class of least squares problem instances (that are natural in high-dimensional settings), we show: (1) for every problem instance and for every ridge parameter, (unregularized) SGD, when provided with logarithmically more samples than that provided to the ridge algorithm, generalizes no worse than the ridge solution (provided SGD uses a tuned constant stepsize); (2) conversely, there exist instances (in this wide problem class) where optimally-tuned ridge regression requires quadratically more samples than SGD in order to have the same generalization performance. Taken together, our results show that, up to the logarithmic factors, the generalization performance of SGD is always no worse than that of ridge regression in a wide range of overparameterized problems, and, in fact, could be much better for some problem instances. More generally, our results show how algorithmic regularization has important consequences even in simpler (overparameterized) convex settings.

A new method for local and global explanation of the machine learning black-box model predictions by tabular data is proposed. It is implemented as a system called AFEX (Attention-like Feature EXplanation) and consisting of two main parts. The first part is a set of the one-feature neural subnetworks which aim to get a specific representation for every feature in the form of a basis of shape functions. The subnetworks use shortcut connections with trainable parameters to improve the network performance. The second part of AFEX produces shape functions of features as the weighted sum of the basis shape functions where weights are computed by using an attention-like mechanism. AFEX identifies pairwise interactions between features based on pairwise multiplications of shape functions corresponding to different features. A modification of AFEX with incorporating an additional surrogate model which approximates the black-box model is proposed. AFEX is trained end-to-end on a whole dataset only once such that it does not require to train neural networks again in the explanation stage. Numerical experiments with synthetic and real data illustrate AFEX.

Attempting to fully exploit the rich information of topological structure and node features for attributed graph, we introduce self-supervised learning mechanism to graph representation learning and propose a novel Self-supervised Consensus Representation Learning (SCRL) framework. In contrast to most existing works that only explore one graph, our proposed SCRL method treats graph from two perspectives: topology graph and feature graph. We argue that their embeddings should share some common information, which could serve as a supervisory signal. Specifically, we construct the feature graph of node features via k-nearest neighbor algorithm. Then graph convolutional network (GCN) encoders extract features from two graphs respectively. Self-supervised loss is designed to maximize the agreement of the embeddings of the same node in the topology graph and the feature graph. Extensive experiments on real citation networks and social networks demonstrate the superiority of our proposed SCRL over the state-of-the-art methods on semi-supervised node classification task. Meanwhile, compared with its main competitors, SCRL is rather efficient.