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Optimal Ensemble Construction for Multi-Study Prediction with Applications to COVID-19 Excess Mortality Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

It is increasingly common to encounter prediction tasks in the biomedical sciences for which multiple datasets are available for model training. Common approaches such as pooling datasets and applying standard statistical learning methods can result in poor out-of-study prediction performance when datasets are heterogeneous. Theoretical and applied work has shown $\textit{multi-study ensembling}$ to be a viable alternative that leverages the variability across datasets in a manner that promotes model generalizability. Multi-study ensembling uses a two-stage $\textit{stacking}$ strategy which fits study-specific models and estimates ensemble weights separately. This approach ignores, however, the ensemble properties at the model-fitting stage, potentially resulting in a loss of efficiency. We therefore propose $\textit{optimal ensemble construction}$, an $\textit{all-in-one}$ approach to multi-study stacking whereby we jointly estimate ensemble weights as well as parameters associated with each study-specific model. We prove that limiting cases of our approach yield existing methods such as multi-study stacking and pooling datasets before model fitting. We propose an efficient block coordinate descent algorithm to optimize the proposed loss function. We compare our approach to standard methods by applying it to a multi-country COVID-19 dataset for baseline mortality prediction. We show that when little data is available for a country before the onset of the pandemic, leveraging data from other countries can substantially improve prediction accuracy. Importantly, our approach outperforms multi-study stacking and other standard methods in this application. We further characterize the method's performance in data-driven and other simulations. Our method remains competitive with or outperforms multi-study stacking and other earlier methods across a range of between-study heterogeneity levels.


Exploring Clustering Algorithms: Explanation and Use Cases - neptune.ai

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Clustering (cluster analysis) is grouping objects based on similarities. Clustering can be used in many areas, including machine learning, computer graphics, pattern recognition, image analysis, information retrieval, bioinformatics, and data compression. Clusters are a tricky concept, which is why there are so many different clustering algorithms. Different cluster models are employed, and for each of these cluster models, different algorithms can be given. Clusters found by one clustering algorithm will definitely be different from clusters found by a different algorithm. Grouping an unlabelled example is called clustering. As the samples are unlabelled, clustering relies on unsupervised machine learning. If the examples are labeled, then it becomes classification. Knowledge of cluster models is fundamental if you want to understand the differences between various cluster algorithms, and in this article, we're going to explore this topic in depth.


Crack the Amazon Data Scientist Interviews

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Do you aspire to become a Data Scientist, ML Engineer, Applied Scientist or Research Scientist at Amazon? This guide will provide you comprehensive details about the interview process and preparation tips to help you ace the data interviews at Amazon. I created dataInterview.com to help a candidate such as yourself ace data science interviews and land your dream role at a top company. Make sure to check it out! Before we start, please note that that the exact interview experience at Amazon can vary given the role, team, and interviewer's preference. In general, the details and tips provided should be helpful with your interview prep. As you might already know, Amazon is a conglomerate of multiple businesses from e-commerce (Amazon.com),


Softmax function and Misconception

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Softmax is a mathematical function used to normalize the values between 0 and 1. In Deep Learning, Softmax is used as the activation function to normalize the output and scale each value in vector between 0 and 1. Softmax is used for classification tasks. At the last layer of the Network, an N-dimensional vector gets generated, one for each class in the Classification task. Softmax is used to normalize those weighted sum values between 0 and 1, and sum of them is equals to 1, that's why most people consider these values as Probabilities of classes but it is a Misconception we will discuss it in this article. Using this mathematical expression, we calculate normalized values for each class of data.


Free 10-Hour Machine Learning Course

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Every day more and more use cases are found for machine learning. It is a great field to get into. We just released a 10-hour machine learning course for beginners on the freeCodeCamp.org Ayush Singh developed this course. He is a young data scientist and machine learning engineer.


A Practical Guide to Linear Regression

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I use Kaggle public dataset "Insurance Premium Prediction" in this exercise. The data includes independent variables: age, sex, bmi, children, smoker, region, and target variable -- expenses. Firstly, let's load the data and have a preliminary examination of the data using df.info() EDA is essential to both investigate the data quality and reveal hidden correlations among variables. In this exercise, I cover three techniques relevant to linear regression.


Mathematics Hidden Behind Linear Regression

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This is about the mathematics that is used in the linear regression (with gradient descent) algorithm. This was a part of my IB HL Mathematics Exploration. Linear Regression is a statistical tool that produces a line of best fit for a given dataset analytically. To produce the regression line manually, one needs to perform operations such as mean-squared error and optimizing the cost function; both are explained in detail later in the document. The main problem arises when the size of the dataset is so large that it becomes computationally inefficient to be done by hand. Therefore, when a dataset size becomes large the computer can perform the task much quicker just with a few simple lines of code in any language. Linear regression algorithm uses a dataset (pairs of input and output values) to generate a line of best fit for that dataset. To start, the algorithm generates a hypothesis in the form??


A Gentle Introduction To Sigmoid Function

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A tutorial on the sigmoid function, its properties, and its use as an activation function in neural networks to learn non-linear decision boundaries.


Do You Know? What is MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION?

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Multivariate Regression is a more powerful version of linear regression, that employs multiple features or variables. Example: In linear regression,we only take into account the size of the house, to determine the price of the house. The total number of features are four in number, thus n 4. In this case, X(3) is a 4-dimensional vector for the four input features of the third house. This means, X(3) [1534, 3, 2, 30, 315]. Here, 3 is the index of the training example, which is used as a notation for the third row. What should be the form of our hypothesis function?


Linear regression in Machine learning

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Let's understand this concept with a simple example. You want to apply for US University to pursue Master's degree. Then the factors on which whether you will get an admit letter from a particular University depends on the following factors i.e. GRE Score, TOEFL Score, Number of research papers published, SOP and Letter of recommendation so, basically speaking in data science terms these are your independent variables and the chances of you being admitted into an university is your dependent variable which you predict based on your independent variables. In simple terms the thing which you need to predict falls under dependent variable and the factors on which your prediction is based on are your independent variables.