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 Statistical Learning


Boundary Estimation from Point Clouds: Algorithms, Guarantees and Applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate identifying the boundary of a domain from sample points in the domain. We introduce new estimators for the normal vector to the boundary, distance of a point to the boundary, and a test for whether a point lies within a boundary strip. The estimators can be efficiently computed and are more accurate than the ones present in the literature. We provide rigorous error estimates for the estimators. Furthermore we use the detected boundary points to solve boundary-value problems for PDE on point clouds. We prove error estimates for the Laplace and eikonal equations on point clouds. Finally we provide a range of numerical experiments illustrating the performance of our boundary estimators, applications to PDE on point clouds, and tests on image data sets.


Big-Step-Little-Step: Efficient Gradient Methods for Objectives with Multiple Scales

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We provide new gradient-based methods for efficiently solving a broad class of ill-conditioned optimization problems. We consider the problem of minimizing a function $f : \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ which is implicitly decomposable as the sum of $m$ unknown non-interacting smooth, strongly convex functions and provide a method which solves this problem with a number of gradient evaluations that scales (up to logarithmic factors) as the product of the square-root of the condition numbers of the components. This complexity bound (which we prove is nearly optimal) can improve almost exponentially on that of accelerated gradient methods, which grow as the square root of the condition number of $f$. Additionally, we provide efficient methods for solving stochastic, quadratic variants of this multiscale optimization problem. Rather than learn the decomposition of $f$ (which would be prohibitively expensive), our methods apply a clean recursive "Big-Step-Little-Step" interleaving of standard methods. The resulting algorithms use $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d m)$ space, are numerically stable, and open the door to a more fine-grained understanding of the complexity of convex optimization beyond condition number.


Consistent Estimation for PCA and Sparse Regression with Oblivious Outliers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop machinery to design efficiently computable and consistent estimators, achieving estimation error approaching zero as the number of observations grows, when facing an oblivious adversary that may corrupt responses in all but an $\alpha$ fraction of the samples. As concrete examples, we investigate two problems: sparse regression and principal component analysis (PCA). For sparse regression, we achieve consistency for optimal sample size $n\gtrsim (k\log d)/\alpha^2$ and optimal error rate $O(\sqrt{(k\log d)/(n\cdot \alpha^2)})$ where $n$ is the number of observations, $d$ is the number of dimensions and $k$ is the sparsity of the parameter vector, allowing the fraction of inliers to be inverse-polynomial in the number of samples. Prior to this work, no estimator was known to be consistent when the fraction of inliers $\alpha$ is $o(1/\log \log n)$, even for (non-spherical) Gaussian design matrices. Results holding under weak design assumptions and in the presence of such general noise have only been shown in dense setting (i.e., general linear regression) very recently by d'Orsi et al. [dNS21]. In the context of PCA, we attain optimal error guarantees under broad spikiness assumptions on the parameter matrix (usually used in matrix completion). Previous works could obtain non-trivial guarantees only under the assumptions that the measurement noise corresponding to the inliers is polynomially small in $n$ (e.g., Gaussian with variance $1/n^2$). To devise our estimators, we equip the Huber loss with non-smooth regularizers such as the $\ell_1$ norm or the nuclear norm, and extend d'Orsi et al.'s approach [dNS21] in a novel way to analyze the loss function. Our machinery appears to be easily applicable to a wide range of estimation problems.


Identifying nonlinear dynamical systems from multi-modal time series data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Empirically observed time series in physics, biology, or medicine, are commonly generated by some underlying dynamical system (DS) which is the target of scientific interest. There is an increasing interest to harvest machine learning methods to reconstruct this latent DS in a completely data-driven, unsupervised way. In many areas of science it is common to sample time series observations from many data modalities simultaneously, e.g. electrophysiological and behavioral time series in a typical neuroscience experiment. However, current machine learning tools for reconstructing DSs usually focus on just one data modality. Here we propose a general framework for multi-modal data integration for the purpose of nonlinear DS identification and cross-modal prediction. This framework is based on dynamically interpretable recurrent neural networks as general approximators of nonlinear DSs, coupled to sets of modality-specific decoder models from the class of generalized linear models. Both an expectation-maximization and a variational inference algorithm for model training are advanced and compared. We show on nonlinear DS benchmarks that our algorithms can efficiently compensate for too noisy or missing information in one data channel by exploiting other channels, and demonstrate on experimental neuroscience data how the algorithm learns to link different data domains to the underlying dynamics


A Riemannian Accelerated Proximal Extragradient Framework and its Implications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

W e contribute to advancing the understanding of Riemannian accelerated gradient methods. In particular, we revisit " Accelerated Hybrid Proximal Extragradient " (A-HPE), a powerful framework for obtaining Euclidean accelerated metho ds [ 29 ]. Building on A-HPE, we then propose and analyze Riemannian A-HPE. The core of our analysis consists of two key components: (i) a set of new insights into Euclidean A -HPE itself; and (ii) a careful control of metric distortion caused by Riemannian g eometry . W e illustrate our framework by obtaining a few existing and new Riemannian acc elerated gradient methods as special cases, while characterizing their accelerat ion as corollaries of our main results.


Benchmarking Multimodal AutoML for Tabular Data with Text Fields

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the use of automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but one or more text fields as well. Here we assemble 18 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Our publicly-available benchmark enables researchers to comprehensively evaluate their own methods for supervised learning with numeric, categorical, and text features. To ensure that any single modeling strategy which performs well over all 18 datasets will serve as a practical foundation for multimodal text/tabular AutoML, the diverse datasets in our benchmark vary greatly in: sample size, problem types (a mix of classification and regression tasks), number of features (with the number of text columns ranging from 1 to 28 between datasets), as well as how the predictive signal is decomposed between text vs. numeric/categorical features (and predictive interactions thereof). Over this benchmark, we evaluate various straightforward pipelines to model such data, including standard two-stage approaches where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. Compared with human data science teams, the fully automated methodology that performed best on our benchmark (stack ensembling a multimodal Transformer with various tree models) also manages to rank 1st place when fit to the raw text/tabular data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle's Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.


Predictive Machine Learning of Objective Boundaries for Solving COPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solving Constraint Optimization Problems (COPs) can be dramatically simplified by boundary estimation, that is, providing tight boundaries of cost functions. By feeding a supervised Machine Learning (ML) model with data composed of known boundaries and extracted features of COPs, it is possible to train the model to estimate boundaries of a new COP instance. In this paper, we first give an overview of the existing body of knowledge on ML for Constraint Programming (CP) which learns from problem instances. Second, we introduce a boundary estimation framework that is applied as a tool to support a CP solver. Within this framework, different ML models are discussed and evaluated regarding their suitability for boundary estimation, and countermeasures to avoid unfeasible estimations that avoid the solver to find an optimal solution are shown. Third, we present an experimental study with distinct CP solvers on seven COPs. Our results show that near-optimal boundaries can be learned for these COPs with only little overhead. These estimated boundaries reduce the objective domain size by 60-88% and can help the solver to find near-optimal solutions early during search.


Adversarial Attacks on Knowledge Graph Embeddings via Instance Attribution Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the widespread use of Knowledge Graph Embeddings (KGE), little is known about the security vulnerabilities that might disrupt their intended behaviour. We study data poisoning attacks against KGE models for link prediction. These attacks craft adversarial additions or deletions at training time to cause model failure at test time. To select adversarial deletions, we propose to use the model-agnostic instance attribution methods from Interpretable Machine Learning, which identify the training instances that are most influential to a neural model's predictions on test instances. We use these influential triples as adversarial deletions. We further propose a heuristic method to replace one of the two entities in each influential triple to generate adversarial additions. Our experiments show that the proposed strategies outperform the state-of-art data poisoning attacks on KGE models and improve the MRR degradation due to the attacks by up to 62% over the baselines.


Successor Feature Neural Episodic Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A longstanding goal in reinforcement learning is to build intelligent agents that show fast learning and a flexible transfer of skills akin to humans and animals. This paper investigates the integration of two frameworks for tackling those goals: episodic control and successor features. Episodic control is a cognitively inspired approach relying on episodic memory, an instance-based memory model of an agent's experiences. Meanwhile, successor features and generalized policy improvement (SF&GPI) is a meta and transfer learning framework allowing to learn policies for tasks that can be efficiently reused for later tasks which have a different reward function. Individually, these two techniques have shown impressive results in vastly improving sample efficiency and the elegant reuse of previously learned policies. Thus, we outline a combination of both approaches in a single reinforcement learning framework and empirically illustrate its benefits.


Large Scale Diverse Combinatorial Optimization: ESPN Fantasy Football Player Trades

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Even skilled fantasy football managers can be disappointed by their mid-season rosters as some players inevitably fall short of draft day expectations. Team managers can quickly discover that their team has a low score ceiling even if they start their best active players. A novel and diverse combinatorial optimization system proposes high volume and unique player trades between complementary teams to balance trade fairness. Several algorithms create the valuation of each fantasy football player with an ensemble of computing models such as Quantum Support Vector Classifier with Permutation Importance (QSVC-PI), Quantum Support Vector Classifier with Accumulated Local Effects (QSVC-ALE), Variational Quantum Circuit with Permutation Importance (VQC-PI), Hybrid Quantum Neural Network with Permutation Importance (HQNN-PI), eXtreme Gradient Boosting Classifier (XGB), and Subject Matter Expert (SME) rules. The valuation of each player is personalized based on league rules, roster, and selections. Similarly, the cost of trading away a player is related to a team's roster, such as the depth at a position, slot count, position importance, etc. Teams are paired together for trading based on a cosine dissimilarity score so that teams can offset their respective strengths and weaknesses. A knapsack 0-1 algorithm computes outgoing players for each team. Postprocessors apply analytics and deep learning models to measure 6 different objective measures about each trade, such as parity, pain, and fairness. Over the 2020 and 2021 National Football League (NFL) seasons, a group of 24 experts from IBM and ESPN evaluated trade quality through 10 Football Error Analysis Tool (FEAT) sessions. Our system started with 76.9% of high-quality trades and was deployed for the 2021 season with 97.3% of high-quality trades. To increase trade quantity, our quantum, classical, and rules-based computing have 100% trade uniqueness. This paper will discuss our diverse computing paradigms that value players, cost determinations, personalization experience, knapsack 0-1 algorithm and our experimental results. Throughout the 2020 season, we served over 239 million trade proposals and insights with over 55 million user interactions. In 2021, we introduced trade personalization so that the trade proposals were created around user preferences.