We present a novel task that measures how people generalize objects' causal powers based on observing a single (Experiment 1) or a few (Experiment 2) causal interactions between object pairs. We propose a computational modeling framework that can synthesize human-like generalization patterns in our task setting, and sheds light on how people may navigate the compositional space of possible causal functions and categories efficiently. Our modeling framework combines a causal function generator that makes use of agent and recipient objects' features and relations, and a Bayesian non-parametric inference process to govern the degree of similarity-based generalization. Our model has a natural "resource-rational" variant that outperforms a naive Bayesian account in describing participants, in particular reproducing a generalization-order effect and causal asymmetry observed in our behavioral experiments. We argue that this modeling framework provides a computationally plausible mechanism for real world causal generalization.

In this paper, we propose a deterministic variational inference approach and generate low-discrepancy points by minimizing the kernel discrepancy, also known as the Maximum Mean Discrepancy or MMD. Based on the general energetic variational inference framework by Wang et. al. (2021), minimizing the kernel discrepancy is transformed to solving a dynamic ODE system via the explicit Euler scheme. We name the resulting algorithm EVI-MMD and demonstrate it through examples in which the target distribution is fully specified, partially specified up to the normalizing constant, and empirically known in the form of training data. Its performances are satisfactory compared to alternative methods in the applications of distribution approximation, numerical integration, and generative learning. The EVI-MMD algorithm overcomes the bottleneck of the existing MMD-descent algorithms, which are mostly applicable to two-sample problems. Algorithms with more sophisticated structures and potential advantages can be developed under the EVI framework.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent uncertainty, such as weather forecasting, medical prognosis, or collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the important difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. The goal of this work is to investigate probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on classification problems where the probabilities are related to model uncertainty. In the case of problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. Finally, we also propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Relu Fully Connected Networks are ubiquitous but uninterpretable because they fit piecewise linear functions emerging from multi-layered structures and complex interactions of model weights. This paper takes a novel approach to piecewise fits by using set operations on individual "pieces"(parts). This is done by approximating canonical normal forms and using the resultant as a model. This gives special advantages like (a)strong correspondence of parameters to pieces of the fit function(High Interpretability); (b)ability to fit any combination of continuous functions as pieces of the piecewise function(Ease of Design); (c)ability to add new non-linearities in a targeted region of the domain(Targeted Learning); (d)simplicity of an equation which avoids layering. It can also be expressed in the general max-min representation of piecewise linear functions which gives theoretical ease and credibility. This architecture is tested on simulated regression and classification tasks and benchmark datasets including UCI datasets, MNIST, FMNIST and CIFAR 10. This performance is on par with fully connected architectures. It can find a variety of applications where fully connected layers must be replaced by interpretable layers.

The field of meta-learning has seen a dramatic rise in interest in recent years. In existing meta-learning approaches, learning tasks for training meta-models are usually collected from public datasets, which brings the difficulty of obtaining a sufficient number of meta-learning tasks with a large amount of training data. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning approach based on randomly generated meta-learning tasks to obtain a parametric loss for classification learning based on big data. The loss is represented by a deep neural network, called meta-loss network (MLN). To train the MLN, we construct a large number of classification learning tasks through randomly generating training data, validation data, and corresponding ground-truth linear classifier. Our approach has two advantages. First, sufficient meta-learning tasks with large number of training data can be obtained easily. Second, the ground-truth classifier is given, so that the difference between the learned classifier and the ground-truth model can be measured to reflect the performance of MLN more precisely than validation accuracy. Based on this difference, we apply the evolutionary strategy algorithm to find out the optimal MLN. The resultant MLN not only leads to satisfactory learning effects on generated linear classifier learning tasks for testing, but also behaves very well on generated nonlinear classifier learning tasks and various public classification tasks. Our MLN stably surpass cross-entropy (CE) and mean square error (MSE) in testing accuracy and generalization ability. These results illustrate the possibility of achieving satisfactory meta-learning effects using generated learning tasks.

Clustering is a big part of unsupervised learning and it consists in assigning labels to examples by leveraging an unlabeled dataset. But since there is no output predefined, how can one define what is a good cluster and what isn't? In this project, a UK-based online retail store has captured the sales data for different products for the period of one year (Nov 2016 to Dec 2017). The organization sells gifts primarily on the online platform and it needs to find the customers who make high purchases of their favorite products. So the company wants to roll out a loyalty program to the high-value customers after the identification of segments.

The recent abundance of data on electricity consumption at different scales opens new challenges and highlights the need for new techniques to leverage information present at finer scales in order to improve forecasts at wider scales. In this work, we take advantage of the similarity between this hierarchical prediction problem and multi-scale transfer learning. We develop two methods for hierarchical transfer learning, based respectively on the stacking of generalized additive models and random forests, and on the use of aggregation of experts. We apply these methods to two problems of electricity load forecasting at national scale, using smart meter data in the first case, and regional data in the second case. For these two usecases, we compare the performances of our methods to that of benchmark algorithms, and we investigate their behaviour using variable importance analysis. Our results demonstrate the interest of both methods, which lead to a significant improvement of the predictions.

Dataless text classification, i.e., a new paradigm of weakly supervised learning, refers to the task of learning with unlabeled documents and a few predefined representative words of categories, known as seed words. The recent generative dataless methods construct document-specific category priors by using seed word occurrences only, however, such category priors often contain very limited and even noisy supervised signals. To remedy this problem, in this paper we propose a novel formulation of category prior. First, for each document, we consider its label membership degree by not only counting seed word occurrences, but also using a novel prototype scheme, which captures pseudo-nearest neighboring categories. Second, for each label, we consider its frequency prior knowledge of the corpus, which is also a discriminative knowledge for classification. By incorporating the proposed category prior into the previous generative dataless method, we suggest a novel generative dataless method, namely Weakly Supervised Prototype Topic Model (WSPTM). The experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that WSPTM outperforms the existing baseline methods.

Crowdsourcing system has emerged as an effective platform to label data with relatively low cost by using non-expert workers. However, inferring correct labels from multiple noisy answers on data has been a challenging problem, since the quality of answers varies widely across tasks and workers. Many previous works have assumed a simple model where the order of workers in terms of their reliabilities is fixed across tasks, and focused on estimating the worker reliabilities to aggregate answers with different weights. We propose a highly general $d$-type worker-task specialization model in which the reliability of each worker can change depending on the type of a given task, where the number $d$ of types can scale in the number of tasks. In this model, we characterize the optimal sample complexity to correctly infer labels with any given recovery accuracy, and propose an inference algorithm achieving the order-wise optimal bound. We conduct experiments both on synthetic and real-world datasets, and show that our algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms developed based on strict model assumptions.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants have established themselves as the go-to algorithms for large-scale machine learning problems with independent samples due to their generalization performance and intrinsic computational advantage. However, the fact that the stochastic gradient is a biased estimator of the full gradient with correlated samples has led to the lack of theoretical understanding of how SGD behaves under correlated settings and hindered its use in such cases. In this paper, we focus on hyperparameter estimation for the Gaussian process (GP) and take a step forward towards breaking the barrier by proving minibatch SGD converges to a critical point of the full log-likelihood loss function, and recovers model hyperparameters with rate $O(\frac{1}{K})$ for $K$ iterations, up to a statistical error term depending on the minibatch size. Our theoretical guarantees hold provided that the kernel functions exhibit exponential or polynomial eigendecay which is satisfied by a wide range of kernels commonly used in GPs. Numerical studies on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate that minibatch SGD has better generalization over state-of-the-art GP methods while reducing the computational burden and opening a new, previously unexplored, data size regime for GPs.