Statistical Learning
Introduction to Components with Knime Analytics - Analytics Vidhya
This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. In the last article A Friendly Introduction to KNIME Analytics Platform I provided a brief insight into the open-source software KNIME Analytics Platform and what it is capable of. With the help of a customer segmentation example, I showed the general functions of KNIME Analytics Platform. This article takes up a topic that was briefly mentioned at the end of the last article: Components. I'll provide an in-depth explanation of what components are, what functionalities they have, and why they are useful.
Chemoinformatics and Machine Learning Approaches for Identifying Antiviral Compounds
Current pandemics propelled research efforts in unprecedented fashion, primarily triggering computational efforts towards new vaccine and drug development as well as drug repurposing. There is an urgent need to design novel drugs with targeted biological activity and minimum adverse reactions that may be useful to manage viral outbreaks. Hence an attempt has been made to develop Machine Learning based predictive models that can be used to assess whether a compound has the potency to be antiviral or not. To this end, a set of 2358 antiviral compounds were compiled from the CAS COVID-19 antiviral SAR dataset whose activity was reported based on IC50 value. A total 1157 two-dimensional molecular descriptors were computed among which, the most highly correlated descriptors were selected using Tree-based, Correlation-based and Mutual information-based feature selection methods.
Time Series Forecasting Using Manifold Learning
Papaioannou, Panagiotis, Talmon, Ronen, Kevrekidis, Ioannis, Siettos, Constantinos
We address a three-tier numerical framework based on manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series. At the first step, we embed the time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using a nonlinear manifold learning algorithm such as Locally Linear Embedding and Diffusion Maps. At the second step, we construct reduced-order regression models on the manifold, in particular Multivariate Autoregressive (MVAR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models, to forecast the embedded dynamics. At the final step, we lift the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using Radial Basis Functions interpolation and Geometric Harmonics. For our illustrations, we test the forecasting performance of the proposed numerical scheme with four sets of time series: three synthetic stochastic ones resembling EEG signals produced from linear and nonlinear stochastic models with different model orders, and one real-world data set containing daily time series of 10 key foreign exchange rates (FOREX) spanning the time period 03/09/2001-29/10/2020. The forecasting performance of the proposed numerical scheme is assessed using the combinations of manifold learning, modelling and lifting approaches. We also provide a comparison with the Principal Component Analysis algorithm as well as with the naive random walk model and the MVAR and GPR models trained and implemented directly in the high-dimensional space.
Structural clustering of volatility regimes for dynamic trading strategies
Prakash, Arjun, James, Nick, Menzies, Max, Francis, Gilad
We develop a new method to find the number of volatility regimes in a nonstationary financial time series by applying unsupervised learning to its volatility structure. We use change point detection to partition a time series into locally stationary segments and then compute a distance matrix between segment distributions. The segments are clustered into a learned number of discrete volatility regimes via an optimization routine. Using this framework, we determine a volatility clustering structure for financial indices, large-cap equities, exchange-traded funds and currency pairs. Our method overcomes the rigid assumptions necessary to implement many parametric regime-switching models, while effectively distilling a time series into several characteristic behaviours. Our results provide significant simplification of these time series and a strong descriptive analysis of prior behaviours of volatility. Finally, we create and validate a dynamic trading strategy that learns the optimal match between the current distribution of a time series and its past regimes, thereby making online risk-avoidance decisions in the present.
Filter Methods for Feature Selection in Supervised Machine Learning Applications -- Review and Benchmark
Hopf, Konstantin, Reifenrath, Sascha
The amount of data for machine learning (ML) applications is constantly growing. Not only the number of observations, especially the number of measured variables (features) increases with ongoing digitization. Selecting the most appropriate features for predictive modeling is an important lever for the success of ML applications in business and research. Feature selection methods (FSM) that are independent of a certain ML algorithm - so-called filter methods - have been numerously suggested, but little guidance for researchers and quantitative modelers exists to choose appropriate approaches for typical ML problems. This review synthesizes the substantial literature on feature selection benchmarking and evaluates the performance of 58 methods in the widely used R environment. For concrete guidance, we consider four typical dataset scenarios that are challenging for ML models (noisy, redundant, imbalanced data and cases with more features than observations). Drawing on the experience of earlier benchmarks, which have considered much fewer FSMs, we compare the performance of the methods according to four criteria (predictive performance, number of relevant features selected, stability of the feature sets and runtime). We found methods relying on the random forest approach, the double input symmetrical relevance filter (DISR) and the joint impurity filter (JIM) were well-performing candidate methods for the given dataset scenarios.
Graph Kernels: A Survey
Nikolentzos, Giannis | Siglidis, Giannis | Vazirgiannis, Michalis (Ecole Polytechnique)
Graph kernels have attracted a lot of attention during the last decade, and have evolved into a rapidly developing branch of learning on structured data. During the past 20 years, the considerable research activity that occurred in the field resulted in the development of dozens of graph kernels, each focusing on specific structural properties of graphs. Graph kernels have proven successful in a wide range of domains, ranging from social networks to bioinformatics. The goal of this survey is to provide a unifying view of the literature on graph kernels. In particular, we present a comprehensive overview of a wide range of graph kernels. Furthermore, we perform an experimental evaluation of several of those kernels on publicly available datasets, and provide a comparative study. Finally, we discuss key applications of graph kernels, and outline some challenges that remain to be addressed.
Exploration of Dark Chemical Genomics Space via Portal Learning: Applied to Targeting the Undruggable Genome and COVID-19 Anti-Infective Polypharmacology
Cai, Tian, Xie, Li, Chen, Muge, Liu, Yang, He, Di, Zhang, Shuo, Mura, Cameron, Bourne, Philip E., Xie, Lei
Advances in biomedicine are largely fueled by exploring uncharted territories of human biology. Machine learning can both enable and accelerate discovery, but faces a fundamental hurdle when applied to unseen data with distributions that differ from previously observed ones -- a common dilemma in scientific inquiry. We have developed a new deep learning framework, called {\textit{Portal Learning}}, to explore dark chemical and biological space. Three key, novel components of our approach include: (i) end-to-end, step-wise transfer learning, in recognition of biology's sequence-structure-function paradigm, (ii) out-of-cluster meta-learning, and (iii) stress model selection. Portal Learning provides a practical solution to the out-of-distribution (OOD) problem in statistical machine learning. Here, we have implemented Portal Learning to predict chemical-protein interactions on a genome-wide scale. Systematic studies demonstrate that Portal Learning can effectively assign ligands to unexplored gene families (unknown functions), versus existing state-of-the-art methods, thereby allowing us to target previously "undruggable" proteins and design novel polypharmacological agents for disrupting interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and human proteins. Portal Learning is general-purpose and can be further applied to other areas of scientific inquiry.
Interpreting Machine Learning Models for Room Temperature Prediction in Non-domestic Buildings
Mao, Jianqiao, Ryan, Grammenos
An ensuing challenge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the perceived difficulty in interpreting sophisticated machine learning models, whose ever-increasing complexity makes it hard for such models to be understood, trusted and thus accepted by human beings. The lack, if not complete absence, of interpretability for these so-called black-box models can lead to serious economic and ethical consequences, thereby hindering the development and deployment of AI in wider fields, particularly in those involving critical and regulatory applications. Yet, the building services industry is a highly-regulated domain requiring transparency and decision-making processes that can be understood and trusted by humans. To this end, the design and implementation of autonomous Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning systems for the automatic but concurrently interpretable optimisation of energy efficiency and room thermal comfort is of topical interest. This work therefore presents an interpretable machine learning model aimed at predicting room temperature in non-domestic buildings, for the purpose of optimising the use of the installed HVAC system. We demonstrate experimentally that the proposed model can accurately forecast room temperatures eight hours ahead in real-time by taking into account historical RT information, as well as additional environmental and time-series features. In this paper, an enhanced feature engineering process is conducted based on the Exploratory Data Analysis results. Furthermore, beyond the commonly used Interpretable Machine Learning techniques, we propose a Permutation Feature-based Frequency Response Analysis (PF-FRA) method for quantifying the contributions of the different predictors in the frequency domain. Based on the generated reason codes, we find that the historical RT feature is the dominant factor that has most impact on the model prediction.
Evaluating importance of nodes in complex networks with local volume information dimension
Li, Hanwen, Shang, Qiuyan, Zhan, Tianxiang, Deng, Yong
How to evaluate the importance of nodes is essential in research of complex network. There are many methods proposed for solving this problem, but they still have room to be improved. In this paper, a new approach called local volume information dimension is proposed. In this method, the sum of degree of nodes within different distances of central node is calculated. The information within the certain distance is described by the information entropy. Compared to other methods, the proposed method considers the information of the nodes from different distances more comprehensively. For the purpose of showing the effectiveness of the proposed method, experiments on real-world networks are implemented. Promising results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Towards Empirical Sandwich Bounds on the Rate-Distortion Function
Rate-distortion (R-D) function, a key quantity in information theory, characterizes the fundamental limit of how much a data source can be compressed subject to a fidelity criterion, by any compression algorithm. As researchers push for ever-improving compression performance, establishing the R-D function of a given data source is not only of scientific interest, but also sheds light on the possible room for improving compression algorithms. Previous work on this problem relied on distributional assumptions on the data source (Gibson, 2017) or only applied to discrete data. By contrast, this paper makes the first attempt at an algorithm for sandwiching the R-D function of a general (not necessarily discrete) source requiring only i.i.d. data samples. We estimate R-D sandwich bounds on Gaussian and high-dimension banana-shaped sources, as well as GAN-generated images. Our R-D upper bound on natural images indicates room for improving the performance of state-of-the-art image compression methods by 1 dB in PSNR at various bitrates.