Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Statistical Learning


Hydroclimatic time series features at multiple time scales

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A comprehensive understanding of the behaviours of the various geophysical processes requires, among others, detailed investigations across temporal scales. In this work, we propose a new time series feature compilation for advancing and enriching such investigations in a hydroclimatic context. This specific compilation can facilitate largely interpretable feature investigations and comparisons in terms of temporal dependence, temporal variation, "forecastability", lumpiness, stability, nonlinearity (and linearity), trends, spikiness, curvature and seasonality. Detailed quantifications and multifaceted characterizations are herein obtained by computing the values of the proposed feature compilation across nine temporal resolutions (i.e., the 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 0.5-month, 1-month, 2-month, 3-month and 6-month ones) and three hydroclimatic time series types (i.e., temperature, precipitation and streamflow) for 34-year-long time series records originating from 511 geographical locations across the continental United States. Based on the acquired information and knowledge, similarities and differences between the examined time series types with respect to the evolution patterns characterizing their feature values with increasing (or decreasing) temporal resolution are identified. To our view, the similarities in these patterns are rather surprising. We also find that the spatial patterns emerging from feature-based time series clustering are largely analogous across temporal scales, and compare the features with respect to their usefulness in clustering the time series at the various temporal resolutions. For most of the features, this usefulness can vary to a notable degree across temporal resolutions and time series types, thereby pointing out the need for conducting multifaceted time series characterizations for the study of hydroclimatic similarity.


Label noise detection under the Noise at Random model with ensemble filters

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Label noise detection has been widely studied in Machine Learning because of its importance in improving training data quality. Satisfactory noise detection has been achieved by adopting ensembles of classifiers. In this approach, an instance is assigned as mislabeled if a high proportion of members in the pool misclassifies it. Previous authors have empirically evaluated this approach; nevertheless, they mostly assumed that label noise is generated completely at random in a dataset. This is a strong assumption since other types of label noise are feasible in practice and can influence noise detection results. This work investigates the performance of ensemble noise detection under two different noise models: the Noisy at Random (NAR), in which the probability of label noise depends on the instance class, in comparison to the Noisy Completely at Random model, in which the probability of label noise is entirely independent. In this setting, we investigate the effect of class distribution on noise detection performance since it changes the total noise level observed in a dataset under the NAR assumption. Further, an evaluation of the ensemble vote threshold is conducted to contrast with the most common approaches in the literature. In many performed experiments, choosing a noise generation model over another can lead to different results when considering aspects such as class imbalance and noise level ratio among different classes.


Improving the Reliability of Network Intrusion Detection Systems through Dataset Integration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work presents Reliable-NIDS (R-NIDS), a novel methodology for Machine Learning (ML) based Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) that allows ML models to work on integrated datasets, empowering the learning process with diverse information from different datasets. Therefore, R-NIDS targets the design of more robust models, that generalize better than traditional approaches. We also propose a new dataset, called UNK21. It is built from three of the most well-known network datasets (UGR'16, USNW-NB15 and NLS-KDD), each one gathered from its own network environment, with different features and classes, by using a data aggregation approach present in R-NIDS. Following R-NIDS, in this work we propose to build two well-known ML models (a linear and a non-linear one) based on the information of three of the most common datasets in the literature for NIDS evaluation, those integrated in UNK21. The results that the proposed methodology offers show how these two ML models trained as a NIDS solution could benefit from this approach, being able to generalize better when training on the newly proposed UNK21 dataset. Furthermore, these results are carefully analyzed with statistical tools that provide high confidence on our conclusions.


Learning Large-scale Network Embedding from Representative Subgraph

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of large-scale network embedding, which aims to learn low-dimensional latent representations for network mining applications. Recent research in the field of network embedding has led to significant progress such as DeepWalk, LINE, NetMF, NetSMF. However, the huge size of many real-world networks makes it computationally expensive to learn network embedding from the entire network. In this work, we present a novel network embedding method called "NES", which learns network embedding from a small representative subgraph. NES leverages theories from graph sampling to efficiently construct representative subgraph with smaller size which can be used to make inferences about the full network, enabling significantly improved efficiency in embedding learning. Then, NES computes the network embedding from this representative subgraph, efficiently. Compared with well-known methods, extensive experiments on networks of various scales and types demonstrate that NES achieves comparable performance and significant efficiency superiority.


On the Existence of the Adversarial Bayes Classifier (Extended Version)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adversarial robustness is a critical property in a variety of modern machine learning applications. While it has been the subject of several recent theoretical studies, many important questions related to adversarial robustness are still open. In this work, we study a fundamental question regarding Bayes optimality for adversarial robustness. We provide general sufficient conditions under which the existence of a Bayes optimal classifier can be guaranteed for adversarial robustness. Our results can provide a useful tool for a subsequent study of surrogate losses in adversarial robustness and their consistency properties. This manuscript is the extended version of the paper On the Existence of the Adversarial Bayes Classifier published in NeurIPS (Awasthi et al., 2021b). The results of the original paper did not apply to some non-strictly convex norms. Here we extend our results to all possible norms.


Dimension-Free Average Treatment Effect Inference with Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper investigates the estimation and inference of the average treatment effect (ATE) using deep neural networks (DNNs) in the potential outcomes framework. Under some regularity conditions, the observed response can be formulated as the response of a mean regression problem with both the confounding variables and the treatment indicator as the independent variables. Using such formulation, we investigate two methods for ATE estimation and inference based on the estimated mean regression function via DNN regression using a specific network architecture. We show that both DNN estimates of ATE are consistent with dimension-free consistency rates under some assumptions on the underlying true mean regression model. Our model assumptions accommodate the potentially complicated dependence structure of the observed response on the covariates, including latent factors and nonlinear interactions between the treatment indicator and confounding variables. We also establish the asymptotic normality of our estimators based on the idea of sample splitting, ensuring precise inference and uncertainty quantification. Simulation studies and real data application justify our theoretical findings and support our DNN estimation and inference methods.


Joint Characterization of the Cryospheric Spectral Feature Space

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hyperspectral feature spaces are useful for many remote sensing applications ranging from spectral mixture modeling to discrete thematic classification. In such cases, characterization of the feature space dimensionality, geometry and topology can provide guidance for effective model design. The objective of this study is to compare and contrast two approaches for identifying feature space basis vectors via dimensionality reduction. These approaches can be combined to render a joint characterization that reveals spectral properties not apparent using either approach alone. We use a diverse collection of AVIRIS-NG reflectance spectra of the snow-firn-ice continuum to illustrate the utility of joint characterization and identify physical properties inferred from the spectra. Spectral feature spaces combining principal components (PCs) and t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embeddings (t-SNEs) provide physically interpretable dimensions representing the global (PC) structure of cryospheric reflectance properties and local (t-SNE) manifold structures revealing clustering not resolved in the global continuum. Joint characterization reveals distinct continua for snow-firn gradients on different parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet and multiple clusters of ice reflectance properties common to both glacier and sea ice in different locations. Clustering revealed in t-SNE feature spaces, and extended to the joint characterization, distinguishes differences in spectral curvature specific to location within the snow accumulation zone, and BRDF effects related to view geometry. The ability of PC+t-SNE joint characterization to produce a physically interpretable spectral feature spaces revealing global topology while preserving local manifold structures suggests that this characterization might be extended to the much higher dimensional hyperspectral feature space of all terrestrial land cover.


Who will dropout from university? Academic risk prediction based on interpretable machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the institutional research mode, in order to explore which characteristics are the best indicators for predicting academic risk from the student behavior data sets that have high-dimensional, unbalanced classified small sample, it transforms the academic risk prediction of college students into a binary classification task. It predicts academic risk based on the LightGBM model and the interpretable machine learning method of Shapley value. The simulation results show that from the global perspective of the prediction model, characteristics such as the quality of academic partners, the seating position in classroom, the dormitory study atmosphere, the English scores of the college entrance examination, the quantity of academic partners, the addiction level of video games, the mobility of academic partners, and the degree of truancy are the best 8 predictors for academic risk. It is contrary to intuition that characteristics such as living in campus or not, work-study, lipstick addiction, student leader or not, lover amount, and smoking have little correlation with university academic risk in this experiment. From the local perspective of the sample, the factors affecting academic risk vary from person to person. It can perform personalized interpretable analysis through Shapley values, which cannot be done by traditional mathematical statistical prediction models. The academic contributions of this research are mainly in two aspects: First, the learning interaction networks is proposed for the first time, so that social behavior can be used to compensate for the one-sided individual behavior and improve the performance of academic risk prediction. Second, the introduction of Shapley value calculation makes machine learning that lacks a clear reasoning process visualized, and provides intuitive decision support for education managers.


Self-Training of Halfspaces with Generalization Guarantees under Massart Mislabeling Noise Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the generalization properties of a self-training algorithm with halfspaces. The approach learns a list of halfspaces iteratively from labeled and unlabeled training data, in which each iteration consists of two steps: exploration and pruning. In the exploration phase, the halfspace is found sequentially by maximizing the unsigned-margin among unlabeled examples and then assigning pseudo-labels to those that have a distance higher than the current threshold. The pseudo-labeled examples are then added to the training set, and a new classifier is learned. This process is repeated until no more unlabeled examples remain for pseudo-labeling. In the pruning phase, pseudo-labeled samples that have a distance to the last halfspace greater than the associated unsigned-margin are then discarded. We prove that the misclassification error of the resulting sequence of classifiers is bounded and show that the resulting semi-supervised approach never degrades performance compared to the classifier learned using only the initial labeled training set. Experiments carried out on a variety of benchmarks demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach compared to state-of-the-art methods.


Nested Hyperbolic Spaces for Dimensionality Reduction and Hyperbolic NN Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hyperbolic neural networks have been popular in the recent past due to their ability to represent hierarchical data sets effectively and efficiently. The challenge in developing these networks lies in the nonlinearity of the embedding space namely, the Hyperbolic space. Hyperbolic space is a homogeneous Riemannian manifold of the Lorentz group. Most existing methods (with some exceptions) use local linearization to define a variety of operations paralleling those used in traditional deep neural networks in Euclidean spaces. In this paper, we present a novel fully hyperbolic neural network which uses the concept of projections (embeddings) followed by an intrinsic aggregation and a nonlinearity all within the hyperbolic space. The novelty here lies in the projection which is designed to project data on to a lower-dimensional embedded hyperbolic space and hence leads to a nested hyperbolic space representation independently useful for dimensionality reduction. The main theoretical contribution is that the proposed embedding is proved to be isometric and equivariant under the Lorentz transformations. This projection is computationally efficient since it can be expressed by simple linear operations, and, due to the aforementioned equivariance property, it allows for weight sharing. The nested hyperbolic space representation is the core component of our network and therefore, we first compare this ensuing nested hyperbolic space representation with other dimensionality reduction methods such as tangent PCA, principal geodesic analysis (PGA) and HoroPCA. Based on this equivariant embedding, we develop a novel fully hyperbolic graph convolutional neural network architecture to learn the parameters of the projection. Finally, we present experiments demonstrating comparative performance of our network on several publicly available data sets.