Methods that address data shifts usually assume full access to multiple datasets. In the healthcare domain, however, privacy-preserving regulations as well as commercial interests limit data availability and, as a result, researchers can typically study only a small number of datasets. In contrast, limited statistical characteristics of specific patient samples are much easier to share and may be available from previously published literature or focused collaborative efforts. Here, we propose a method that estimates model performance in external samples from their limited statistical characteristics. We search for weights that induce internal statistics that are similar to the external ones; and that are closest to uniform. We then use model performance on the weighted internal sample as an estimation for the external counterpart. We evaluate the proposed algorithm on simulated data as well as electronic medical record data for two risk models, predicting complications in ulcerative colitis patients and stroke in women diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. In the vast majority of cases, the estimated external performance is much closer to the actual one than the internal performance. Our proposed method may be an important building block in training robust models and detecting potential model failures in external environments.

This study is a technical supplement to "AI gone astray: How subtle shifts in patient data send popular algorithms reeling, undermining patient safety." from STAT News, which investigates the effect of time drift on clinically deployed machine learning models. We use MIMIC-IV, a publicly available dataset, to train models that replicate commercial approaches by Dascena and Epic to predict the onset of sepsis, a deadly and yet treatable condition. We observe some of these models degrade overtime; most notably an RNN built on Epic features degrades from a 0.729 AUC to a 0.525 AUC over a decade, leading us to investigate technical and clinical drift as root causes of this performance drop.

We study the convergence of the actor-critic algorithm with nonlinear function approximation under a nonconvex-nonconcave primal-dual formulation. Stochastic gradient descent ascent is applied with an adaptive proximal term for robust learning rates. We show the first efficient convergence result with primal-dual actor-critic with a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}\left(\sqrt{\frac{\ln \left(N d G^2 \right)}{N}}\right)$ under Markovian sampling, where $G$ is the element-wise maximum of the gradient, $N$ is the number of iterations, and $d$ is the dimension of the gradient. Our result is presented with only the Polyak-\L{}ojasiewicz condition for the dual variables, which is easy to verify and applicable to a wide range of reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios. The algorithm and analysis are general enough to be applied to other RL settings, like multi-agent RL. Empirical results on OpenAI Gym continuous control tasks corroborate our theoretical findings.

Estimating the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between two distributions given samples from them is well-studied in machine learning and information theory. Motivated by considerations of multi-group fairness, we seek KL divergence estimates that accurately reflect the contributions of sub-populations to the overall divergence. We model the sub-populations coming from a rich (possibly infinite) family $\mathcal{C}$ of overlapping subsets of the domain. We propose the notion of multi-group attribution for $\mathcal{C}$, which requires that the estimated divergence conditioned on every sub-population in $\mathcal{C}$ satisfies some natural accuracy and fairness desiderata, such as ensuring that sub-populations where the model predicts significant divergence do diverge significantly in the two distributions. Our main technical contribution is to show that multi-group attribution can be derived from the recently introduced notion of multi-calibration for importance weights [HKRR18, GRSW21]. We provide experimental evidence to support our theoretical results, and show that multi-group attribution provides better KL divergence estimates when conditioned on sub-populations than other popular algorithms.

We develop a mixtures-of-experts (ME) approach to the multiclass classification where the predictors are univariate functions. It consists of a ME model in which both the gating network and the experts network are constructed upon multinomial logistic activation functions with functional inputs. We perform a regularized maximum likelihood estimation in which the coefficient functions enjoy interpretable sparsity constraints on targeted derivatives. We develop an EM-Lasso like algorithm to compute the regularized MLE and evaluate the proposed approach on simulated and real data.

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We introduce a class of clustering procedures which includes $k$-means and $k$-medians, as well as variants of these where the domain of the cluster centers can be chosen adaptively (for example, $k$-medoids) and where the number of cluster centers can be chosen adaptively (for example, according to the elbow method). In the non-parametric setting and assuming only the finiteness of certain moments, we show that all clustering procedures in this class are strongly consistent under IID samples. Our method of proof is to directly study the continuity of various deterministic maps associated with these clustering procedures, and to show that strong consistency simply descends from analogous strong consistency of the empirical measures. In the adaptive setting, our work provides a strong consistency result that is the first of its kind. In the non-adaptive setting, our work strengthens Pollard's classical result by dispensing with various unnecessary technical hypotheses, by upgrading the particular notion of strong consistency, and by using the same methods to prove further limit theorems.

Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive distributions with inputs sampled i.i.d. from the testing distribution. With low-dimensional inputs, these methods distinguish agents that effectively estimate uncertainty from those that do not. We establish that the predictive distribution order required for such differentiation increases greatly with input dimension, rendering these methods impractical. To accommodate high-dimensional inputs, we introduce \textit{dyadic sampling}, which focuses on predictive distributions associated with random \textit{pairs} of inputs. We demonstrate that this approach efficiently distinguishes agents in high-dimensional examples involving simple logistic regression as well as complex synthetic and empirical data.

Practical tools for clustering streaming data must be fast enough to handle the arrival rate of the observations. Typically, they also must adapt on the fly to possible lack of stationarity; i.e., the data statistics may be time-dependent due to various forms of drifts, changes in the number of clusters, etc. The Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM), whose Bayesian nonparametric nature allows it to adapt its complexity to the data, seems a natural choice for the streaming-data case. In its classical formulation, however, the DPMM cannot capture common types of drifts in the data statistics. Moreover, and regardless of that limitation, existing methods for online DPMM inference are too slow to handle rapid data streams. In this work we propose adapting both the DPMM and a known DPMM sampling-based non-streaming inference method for streaming-data clustering. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed method on several challenging settings, where it obtains state-of-the-art results while being on par with other methods in terms of speed.

This article was published as a part of the blog. In this article, we will be dealing with the Restaurant reviews dataset. In this dataset, there are reviews from the customers which are either positive or negative. And now we are going to build a machine learning model using both Support Vector Classifier(SVC) and Count Vectorizer methods. And finally, this model is going to predict whether the given review is either positive or negative.