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 Statistical Learning


Joint Probability Estimation Using Tensor Decomposition and Dictionaries

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this work, we study non-parametric estimation of joint probabilities of a given set of discrete and continuous random variables from their (empirically estimated) 2D marginals, under the assumption that the joint probability could be decomposed and approximated by a mixture of product densities/mass functions. The problem of estimating the joint probability density function (PDF) using semi-parametric techniques such as Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) is widely studied. However such techniques yield poor results when the underlying densities are mixtures of various other families of distributions such as Laplacian or generalized Gaussian, uniform, Cauchy, etc. Further, GMMs are not the best choice to estimate joint distributions which are hybrid in nature, i.e., some random variables are discrete while others are continuous. We present a novel approach for estimating the PDF using ideas from dictionary representations in signal processing coupled with low rank tensor decompositions. To the best our knowledge, this is the first work on estimating joint PDFs employing dictionaries alongside tensor decompositions. We create a dictionary of various families of distributions by inspecting the data, and use it to approximate each decomposed factor of the product in the mixture. Our approach can naturally handle hybrid $N$-dimensional distributions. We test our approach on a variety of synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate its effectiveness in terms of better classification rates and lower error rates, when compared to state of the art estimators.


Accelerated SGD for Non-Strongly-Convex Least Squares

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider stochastic approximation for the least squares regression problem in the non-strongly convex setting. We present the first practical algorithm that achieves the optimal prediction error rates in terms of dependence on the noise of the problem, as $O(d/t)$ while accelerating the forgetting of the initial conditions to $O(d/t^2)$. Our new algorithm is based on a simple modification of the accelerated gradient descent. We provide convergence results for both the averaged and the last iterate of the algorithm. In order to describe the tightness of these new bounds, we present a matching lower bound in the noiseless setting and thus show the optimality of our algorithm.


Why adversarial training can hurt robust accuracy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning classifiers with high test accuracy often perform poorly under adversarial attacks. It is commonly believed that adversarial training alleviates this issue. In this paper, we demonstrate that, surprisingly, the opposite may be true -- Even though adversarial training helps when enough data is available, it may hurt robust generalization in the small sample size regime. We first prove this phenomenon for a high-dimensional linear classification setting with noiseless observations. Our proof provides explanatory insights that may also transfer to feature learning models. Further, we observe in experiments on standard image datasets that the same behavior occurs for perceptible attacks that effectively reduce class information such as mask attacks and object corruptions.


On Practical Reinforcement Learning: Provable Robustness, Scalability, and Statistical Efficiency

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This thesis rigorously studies fundamental reinforcement learning (RL) methods in modern practical considerations, including robust RL, distributional RL, and offline RL with neural function approximation. The thesis first prepares the readers with an overall overview of RL and key technical background in statistics and optimization. In each of the settings, the thesis motivates the problems to be studied, reviews the current literature, provides computationally efficient algorithms with provable efficiency guarantees, and concludes with future research directions. The thesis makes fundamental contributions to the three settings above, both algorithmically, theoretically, and empirically, while staying relevant to practical considerations.


Early Time-Series Classification Algorithms: An Empirical Comparison

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Early Time-Series Classification (ETSC) is the task of predicting the class of incoming time-series by observing as few measurements as possible. Such methods can be employed to obtain classification forecasts in many time-critical applications. However, available techniques are not equally suitable for every problem, since differentiations in the data characteristics can impact algorithm performance in terms of earliness, accuracy, F1-score, and training time. We evaluate six existing ETSC algorithms on publicly available data, as well as on two newly introduced datasets originating from the life sciences and maritime domains. Our goal is to provide a framework for the evaluation and comparison of ETSC algorithms and to obtain intuition on how such approaches perform on real-life applications. The presented framework may also serve as a benchmark for new related techniques.


On consistency of constrained spectral clustering under representation-aware stochastic block model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Spectral clustering is widely used in practice due to its flexibility, computational efficiency, and well-understood theoretical performance guarantees. Recently, spectral clustering has been studied to find balanced clusters under population-level constraints. These constraints are specified by additional information available in the form of auxiliary categorical node attributes. In this paper, we consider a scenario where these attributes may not be observable, but manifest as latent features of an auxiliary graph. Motivated by this, we study constrained spectral clustering with the aim of finding balanced clusters in a given \textit{similarity graph} $\mathcal{G}$, such that each individual is adequately represented with respect to an auxiliary graph $\mathcal{R}$ (we refer to this as representation graph). We propose an individual-level balancing constraint that formalizes this idea. Our work leads to an interesting stochastic block model that not only plants the given partitions in $\mathcal{G}$ but also plants the auxiliary information encoded in the representation graph $\mathcal{R}$. We develop unnormalized and normalized variants of spectral clustering in this setting. These algorithms use $\mathcal{R}$ to find clusters in $\mathcal{G}$ that approximately satisfy the proposed constraint. We also establish the first statistical consistency result for constrained spectral clustering under individual-level constraints for graphs sampled from the above-mentioned variant of the stochastic block model. Our experimental results corroborate our theoretical findings.


Uniform Approximations for Randomized Hadamard Transforms with Applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Randomized Hadamard Transforms (RHTs) have emerged as a computationally efficient alternative to the use of dense unstructured random matrices across a range of domains in computer science and machine learning. For several applications such as dimensionality reduction and compressed sensing, the theoretical guarantees for methods based on RHTs are comparable to approaches using dense random matrices with i.i.d.\ entries. However, several such applications are in the low-dimensional regime where the number of rows sampled from the matrix is rather small. Prior arguments are not applicable to the high-dimensional regime often found in machine learning applications like kernel approximation. Given an ensemble of RHTs with Gaussian diagonals, $\{M^i\}_{i = 1}^m$, and any $1$-Lipschitz function, $f: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$, we prove that the average of $f$ over the entries of $\{M^i v\}_{i = 1}^m$ converges to its expectation uniformly over $\| v \| \leq 1$ at a rate comparable to that obtained from using truly Gaussian matrices. We use our inequality to then derive improved guarantees for two applications in the high-dimensional regime: 1) kernel approximation and 2) distance estimation. For kernel approximation, we prove the first \emph{uniform} approximation guarantees for random features constructed through RHTs lending theoretical justification to their empirical success while for distance estimation, our convergence result implies data structures with improved runtime guarantees over previous work by the authors. We believe our general inequality is likely to find use in other applications.


3 Evaluation Metrics for Regression

#artificialintelligence

Regression-based machine learning models are used to predict the value of a continuous attribute. As with all supervised machine learning problems the model is trained using a set of features (X) to learn the mapping to a target variable (y). In the case of regression, the target is a continuous variable such as the price of a house. Probably the simplest regression algorithm is linear regression. Simple linear regression, where there is only one feature and one target, is represented by the equation shown below.


Adversarial Robustness of Neural-Statistical Features in Detection of Generative Transformers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The detection of computer-generated text is an area of rapidly increasing significance as nascent generative models allow for efficient creation of compelling human-like text, which may be abused for the purposes of spam, disinformation, phishing, or online influence campaigns. Past work has studied detection of current state-of-the-art models, but despite a developing threat landscape, there has been minimal analysis of the robustness of detection methods to adversarial attacks. To this end, we evaluate neural and non-neural approaches on their ability to detect computer-generated text, their robustness against text adversarial attacks, and the impact that successful adversarial attacks have on human judgement of text quality. We find that while statistical features underperform neural features, statistical features provide additional adversarial robustness that can be leveraged in ensemble detection models. In the process, we find that previously effective complex phrasal features for detection of computer-generated text hold little predictive power against contemporary generative models, and identify promising statistical features to use instead. Finally, we pioneer the usage of $\Delta$MAUVE as a proxy measure for human judgement of adversarial text quality.


The Concordance Index decomposition: a measure for a deeper understanding of survival prediction models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Concordance Index (C-index) is a commonly used metric in Survival Analysis to evaluate how good a prediction model is. This paper proposes a decomposition of the C-Index into a weighted harmonic mean of two quantities: one for ranking observed events versus other observed events, and the other for ranking observed events versus censored cases. This decomposition allows a more fine-grained analysis of the pros and cons of survival prediction methods. The utility of the decomposition is demonstrated using three benchmark survival analysis models (Cox Proportional Hazard, Random Survival Forest, and Deep Adversarial Time-to-Event Network) together with a new variational generative neural-network-based method (SurVED), which is also proposed in this paper. The demonstration is done on four publicly available datasets with varying censoring levels. The analysis with the C-index decomposition shows that all methods essentially perform equally well when the censoring level is high because of the dominance of the term measuring the ranking of events versus censored cases. In contrast, some methods deteriorate when the censoring level decreases because they do not rank the events versus other events well.