This problem statement is from the Kaggle recruitment challenge, by Allstate Insurance. Allstate is an insurance services company in the USA, which provides insurance to over 16 million households in the USA. The company wants to reduce the complexity of the insurance claiming process and make it a worry-free experience for the customers by automating the predictions of claims severity. The Allstate Insurance company wants to reduce the time taking process and make it easier for the people who need insurance cover to claim it much easier. So in order to reduce the complexity, It has given a dataset to use machine learning algorithms to predict the costs and hence the severity of the claims accurately.

It's never been easier for businesses of all sizes to harness the power of data, thanks to the development of free, open-source machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence tools like Google's TensorFlow and scikit-learn, as well as "ML-as-a-service" products like Google's cloud prediction API and Microsoft's Azure machine learning platform. On the other hand, machine learning is a significant and complicated field. Where do you begin to learn how to apply it to your company? Machine learning is a branch of study that trains machines to do cognitive tasks like humans do. While they have far fewer cognitive abilities than ordinary people, they can quickly process large amounts of data and extract significant commercial insights.

Being well versed in statistics is absolutely critical for data scientists, and this book is particularly helpful for that. It grants you a comprehensive explanation of the most vital concepts in statistical learning, without needing to be a mathematics expert to understand the concepts. It even goes through supervised and unsupervised learning, including SVMs, neural networks and decision trees, random forests, LASSO regression, etc.

Topological data analysis (TDA) provides a set of data analysis tools for extracting embedded topological structures from complex high-dimensional datasets. In recent years, TDA has been a rapidly growing field which has found success in a wide range of applications, including signal processing, neuroscience and network analysis. In these applications, the online detection of changes is of crucial importance, but this can be highly challenging since such changes often occur in a low-dimensional embedding within high-dimensional data streams. We thus propose a new method, called PERsistence diagram-based ChangE-PoinT detection (PERCEPT), which leverages the learned topological structure from TDA to sequentially detect changes. PERCEPT follows two key steps: it first learns the embedded topology as a point cloud via persistence diagrams, then applies a non-parametric monitoring approach for detecting changes in the resulting point cloud distributions. This yields a non-parametric, topology-aware framework which can efficiently detect online changes from high-dimensional data streams. We investigate the effectiveness of PERCEPT over existing methods in a suite of numerical experiments where the data streams have an embedded topological structure. We then demonstrate the usefulness of PERCEPT in two applications in solar flare monitoring and human gesture detection.

There has been a recent surge in learning generative models for graphs. While impressive progress has been made on static graphs, work on generative modeling of temporal graphs is at a nascent stage with significant scope for improvement. First, existing generative models do not scale with either the time horizon or the number of nodes. Second, existing techniques are transductive in nature and thus do not facilitate knowledge transfer. Finally, due to relying on one-to-one node mapping from source to the generated graph, existing models leak node identity information and do not allow up-scaling/down-scaling the source graph size. In this paper, we bridge these gaps with a novel generative model called TIGGER. TIGGER derives its power through a combination of temporal point processes with auto-regressive modeling enabling both transductive and inductive variants. Through extensive experiments on real datasets, we establish TIGGER generates graphs of superior fidelity, while also being up to 3 orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art.

Finding prototypes (e.g., mean and median) for a dataset is central to a number of common machine learning algorithms. Subspaces have been shown to provide useful, robust representations for datasets of images, videos and more. Since subspaces correspond to points on a Grassmann manifold, one is led to consider the idea of a subspace prototype for a Grassmann-valued dataset. While a number of different subspace prototypes have been described, the calculation of some of these prototypes has proven to be computationally expensive while other prototypes are affected by outliers and produce highly imperfect clustering on noisy data. This work proposes a new subspace prototype, the flag median, and introduces the FlagIRLS algorithm for its calculation. We provide evidence that the flag median is robust to outliers and can be used effectively in algorithms like Linde-Buzo-Grey (LBG) to produce improved clusterings on Grassmannians. Numerical experiments include a synthetic dataset, the MNIST handwritten digits dataset, the Mind's Eye video dataset and the UCF YouTube action dataset. The flag median is compared the other leading algorithms for computing prototypes on the Grassmannian, namely, the $\ell_2$-median and to the flag mean. We find that using FlagIRLS to compute the flag median converges in $4$ iterations on a synthetic dataset. We also see that Grassmannian LBG with a codebook size of $20$ and using the flag median produces at least a $10\%$ improvement in cluster purity over Grassmannian LBG using the flag mean or $\ell_2$-median on the Mind's Eye dataset.

Sparse recovery is one of the most fundamental and well-studied inverse problems. Standard statistical formulations of the problem are provably solved by general convex programming techniques and more practical, fast (nearly-linear time) iterative methods. However, these latter "fast algorithms" have previously been observed to be brittle in various real-world settings. We investigate the brittleness of fast sparse recovery algorithms to generative model changes through the lens of studying their robustness to a "helpful" semi-random adversary, a framework which tests whether an algorithm overfits to input assumptions. We consider the following basic model: let $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$ be a measurement matrix which contains an unknown subset of rows $\mathbf{G} \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times d}$ which are bounded and satisfy the restricted isometry property (RIP), but is otherwise arbitrary. Letting $x^\star \in \mathbb{R}^d$ be $s$-sparse, and given either exact measurements $b = \mathbf{A} x^\star$ or noisy measurements $b = \mathbf{A} x^\star + \xi$, we design algorithms recovering $x^\star$ information-theoretically optimally in nearly-linear time. We extend our algorithm to hold for weaker generative models relaxing our planted RIP assumption to a natural weighted variant, and show that our method's guarantees naturally interpolate the quality of the measurement matrix to, in some parameter regimes, run in sublinear time. Our approach differs from prior fast iterative methods with provable guarantees under semi-random generative models: natural conditions on a submatrix which make sparse recovery tractable are NP-hard to verify. We design a new iterative method tailored to the geometry of sparse recovery which is provably robust to our semi-random model. We hope our approach opens the door to new robust, efficient algorithms for natural statistical inverse problems.

This paper aims to develop a global perspective of the complexity of the relationship between the standardised per-capita growth rate of Covid-19 cases, deaths, and the OxCGRT Covid-19 Stringency Index, a measure describing a country's stringency of lockdown policies. To achieve our goal, we use a heterogeneous intrinsic dimension estimator implemented as a Bayesian mixture model, called Hidalgo. We identify that the Covid-19 dataset may project onto two low-dimensional manifolds without significant information loss. The low dimensionality suggests strong dependency among the standardised growth rates of cases and deaths per capita and the OxCGRT Covid-19 Stringency Index for a country over 2020-2021. Given the low dimensional structure, it may be feasible to model observable Covid-19 dynamics with few parameters. Importantly, we identify spatial autocorrelation in the intrinsic dimension distribution worldwide. Moreover, we highlight that high-income countries are more likely to lie on low-dimensional manifolds, likely arising from aging populations, comorbidities, and increased per capita mortality burden from Covid-19. Finally, we temporally stratify the dataset to examine the intrinsic dimension at a more granular level throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.

This paper presents an online algorithm for identification of partial differential equations (PDEs) based on the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics algorithm (WSINDy). The algorithm is online in a sense that if performs the identification task by processing solution snapshots that arrive sequentially. The core of the method combines a weak-form discretization of candidate PDEs with an online proximal gradient descent approach to the sparse regression problem. In particular, we do not regularize the $\ell_0$-pseudo-norm, instead finding that directly applying its proximal operator (which corresponds to a hard thresholding) leads to efficient online system identification from noisy data. We demonstrate the success of the method on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, the nonlinear wave equation with time-varying wavespeed, and the linear wave equation, in one, two, and three spatial dimensions, respectively. In particular, our examples show that the method is capable of identifying and tracking systems with coefficients that vary abruptly in time, and offers a streaming alternative to problems in higher dimensions.

The objective of this article is to introduce a fairness interpretability framework for measuring and explaining the bias in classification and regression models at the level of a distribution. In our work, we measure the model bias across sub-population distributions in the model output using the Wasserstein metric. To properly quantify the contributions of predictors, we take into account the favorability of both the model and predictors with respect to the non-protected class. The quantification is accomplished by the use of transport theory, which gives rise to the decomposition of the model bias and bias explanations to positive and negative contributions. To gain more insight into the role of favorability and allow for additivity of bias explanations, we adapt techniques from cooperative game theory.