Statistical Learning
DogeCoin Prediction Using Time Series Analysis - Analytics Vidhya
This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. What is Time Series Analysis? Machine learning will automate jobs that most people thought could only be done by people." This must be one of the famous quotes you must have heard about machine learning. When diving deep into ML and its applications, everyone realizes this fact.
Market Segmentation in the Emoji Era
Ishaan and Elizabeth, both graduate students in business, are attending a marketing strategy lecture at a business school in the Northeast. While learning about the principles of market segmentation, Ishaan texts "outdated" followed by three thinking--face emojis to Elizabeth. He wonders how demographic-, geographic-, or psychographic-based segmentation--the topic of the lecture--can help his family's franchise restaurant deal with the hundreds of sometimes-not-so-positive online reviews and social media posts. Meanwhile, Elizabeth hopes that the fast-food restaurant where she ordered her lunch understands that she now belongs to the segment of'extremely displeased' customers. Earlier, she used the restaurant's new app to order a burrito without cheese and sour cream, only to discover that the meal included both offending ingredients. Her lunch went straight into the trash can and she angrily tweeted her disappointment to the restaurant. Elizabeth replies to Ishaan's text, "that is so passรฉ," followed by a face_with_ rolling_eyes. This simple vignette illustrates an important point. Organizations of every size are challenged with capitalizing on enormous amounts of unstructured organizational data--for instance, from social media posts--particularly for applications such as market segmentation. The purpose of this article is to give the reader an idea of the challenges and opportunities faced by businesses using market segmentation, including the impacts of big data.
Quantum-enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo
Layden, David, Mazzola, Guglielmo, Mishmash, Ryan V., Motta, Mario, Wocjan, Pawel, Kim, Jin-Sung, Sheldon, Sarah
Sampling from complicated probability distributions is a hard computational problem arising in many fields, including statistical physics, optimization, and machine learning. Quantum computers have recently been used to sample from complicated distributions that are hard to sample from classically, but which seldom arise in applications. Here we introduce a quantum algorithm to sample from distributions that pose a bottleneck in several applications, which we implement on a superconducting quantum processor. The algorithm performs Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), a popular iterative sampling technique, to sample from the Boltzmann distribution of classical Ising models. In each step, the quantum processor explores the model in superposition to propose a random move, which is then accepted or rejected by a classical computer and returned to the quantum processor, ensuring convergence to the desired Boltzmann distribution. We find that this quantum algorithm converges in fewer iterations than common classical MCMC alternatives on relevant problem instances, both in simulations and experiments. It therefore opens a new path for quantum computers to solve useful--not merely difficult--problems in the near term.
Verification of safety critical control policies using kernel methods
Vertovec, Nikolaus, Ober-Blรถbaum, Sina, Margellos, Kostas
Hamilton-Jacobi reachability methods for safety-critical control have been well studied, but the safety guarantees derived rely on the accuracy of the numerical computation. Thus, it is crucial to understand and account for any inaccuracies that occur due to uncertainty in the underlying dynamics and environment as well as the induced numerical errors. To this end, we propose a framework for modeling the error of the value function inherent in Hamilton-Jacobi reachability using a Gaussian process. The derived safety controller can be used in conjuncture with arbitrary controllers to provide a safe hybrid control law. The marginal likelihood of the Gaussian process then provides a confidence metric used to determine switches between a least restrictive controller and a safety controller. We test both the prediction as well as the correction capabilities of the presented method in a classical pursuit-evasion example.
Out-of-distribution Generalization with Causal Invariant Transformations
Wang, Ruoyu, Yi, Mingyang, Chen, Zhitang, Zhu, Shengyu
In real-world applications, it is important and desirable to learn a model that performs well on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently, causality has become a powerful tool to tackle the OOD generalization problem, with the idea resting on the causal mechanism that is invariant across domains of interest. To leverage the generally unknown causal mechanism, existing works assume a linear form of causal feature or require sufficiently many and diverse training domains, which are usually restrictive in practice. In this work, we obviate these assumptions and tackle the OOD problem without explicitly recovering the causal feature. Our approach is based on transformations that modify the non-causal feature but leave the causal part unchanged, which can be either obtained from prior knowledge or learned from the training data in the multi-domain scenario. Under the setting of invariant causal mechanism, we theoretically show that if all such transformations are available, then we can learn a minimax optimal model across the domains using only single domain data. Noticing that knowing a complete set of these causal invariant transformations may be impractical, we further show that it suffices to know only a subset of these transformations. Based on the theoretical findings, a regularized training procedure is proposed to improve the OOD generalization capability. Extensive experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, even with only a few causal invariant transformations.
Constrained Clustering and Multiple Kernel Learning without Pairwise Constraint Relaxation
Boecking, Benedikt, Jeanselme, Vincent, Dubrawski, Artur
Clustering under pairwise constraints is an important knowledge discovery tool that enables the learning of appropriate kernels or distance metrics to improve clustering performance. These pairwise constraints, which come in the form of must-link and cannot-link pairs, arise naturally in many applications and are intuitive for users to provide. However, the common practice of relaxing discrete constraints to a continuous domain to ease optimization when learning kernels or metrics can harm generalization, as information which only encodes linkage is transformed to informing distances. We introduce a new constrained clustering algorithm that jointly clusters data and learns a kernel in accordance with the available pairwise constraints. To generalize well, our method is designed to maximize constraint satisfaction without relaxing pairwise constraints to a continuous domain where they inform distances. We show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches on a large number of diverse publicly available datasets, and we discuss how our method can scale to handling large data.
Ensembles in Machine Learning
Ensemble methods are well established as an algorithmic cornerstone in machine learning (ML). Just as in real life, in ML a committee of experts will often perform better than an individual provided appropriate care is taken in constituting the committee. Since the earliest days of ML research, a variety of ensemble strategies have been developed with random forests and gradient boosting emerging as leading-edge methods in classification today. It has been recognised since the early days of ML research that ensembles of classifiers can be more accurate than individual models. In ML, ensembles are effectively committees that aggregate the predictions of individual classifiers. They are effective for very much the same reasons a committee of experts works in human decision making, they can bring different expertise to bear and the averaging effect can reduce errors. This article presents a tutorial on the main ensemble methods in use in ML with links to Python notebooks and datasets illustrating these methods in action. The objective is to help practitioners get started with ML ensembles and to provide an insight into when and why ensembles are effective. There have been a lot of developments since then and the ensemble idea is still to the forefront in ML applications. For example, random forests [2] and gradient boosting [7] would be considered among the most powerful methods available to ML practitioners today. The generic ensemble idea is presented in Figure 1. All ensembles are made up of a collection of base classifiers, also known as members or estimators.
Framework for Data Preparation Techniques in Machine Learning
There are a vast number of different types of data preparation techniques that could be used on a predictive modeling project. In some cases, the distribution of the data or the requirements of a machine learning model may suggest the data preparation needed, although this is rarely the case given the complexity and high-dimensionality of the data, the ever-increasing parade of new machine learning algorithms and limited, although human, limitations of the practitioner. Instead, data preparation can be treated as another hyperparameter to tune as part of the modeling pipeline. This raises the question of how to know what data preparation methods to consider in the search, which can feel overwhelming to experts and beginners alike. The solution is to think about the vast field of data preparation in a structured way and systematically evaluate data preparation techniques based on their effect on the raw data.
All About Logistic Regression
Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. Logistic Regression is a Supervised Machine Learning algorithm that is used in classification problems where we have to distinguish the dependent variable between two or more categories or classes by using the independent variables.
Machine learning will be one of the best ways to identify habitable exoplanets
The field of extrasolar planet studies is undergoing a seismic shift. To date, 4,940 exoplanets have been confirmed in 3,711 planetary systems, with another 8,709 candidates awaiting confirmation. With so many planets available for study and improvements in telescope sensitivity and data analysis, the focus is transitioning from discovery to characterization. Instead of simply looking for more planets, astrobiologists will examine "potentially-habitable" worlds for potential "biosignatures." This refers to the chemical signatures associated with life and biological processes, one of the most important of which is water.