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 Statistical Learning


A High Throughput Generative Vector Autoregression Model for Stochastic Synapses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent trends in computing hardware have placed increasing emphasis on neuromorphic architectures implementing machine learning (ML) algorithms directly in hardware. Such bio-inspired approaches, through in-memory computation and massive parallelism, excel in new classes of computational problems and offer promising advantages with respect to power consumption error resiliency. While CMOS-based neuromorphic computing (NC) implementations have made substantial progress recently, new materials and physical mechanisms may ultimately provide better opportunities for energy efficiency and scaling [1, 2, 3]. A specific functionality required in NC applications is the ability to mimic synaptic connections and plasticity by allowing the storage of large numbers of interconnected and continuously adaptable resistance values. Several candidate memory technologies such as MRAM, ReRAM, PCM, CeRAM, are emerging to cover this behavior using different physical mechanisms [4, 5, 6, 7]. Among these, ReRAM is attractive for its simplicity of materials and device structure, providing the necessary CMOS compatibility and scalability [8]. ReRAM is essentially a two terminal nanoscale electrochemical cell, whose variable resistance state is based on manipulation of the point defect configuration in the oxide material (depicted in Figure 1).


Turtle Score -- Similarity Based Developer Analyzer

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In day-to-day life, a highly demanding task for IT companies is to find the right candidates who fit the companies' culture. This research aims to comprehend, analyze and automatically produce convincing outcomes to find a candidate who perfectly fits right in the company. Data is examined and collected for each employee who works in the IT domain focusing on their performance measure. This is done based on various different categories which bring versatility and a wide view of focus. To this data, learner analysis is done using machine learning algorithms to obtain learner similarity and developer similarity in order to recruit people with identical working patterns. It's been proven that the efficiency and capability of a particular worker go higher when working with a person of a similar personality. Therefore this will serve as a useful tool for recruiters who aim to recruit people with high productivity. This is to say that the model designed will render the best outcome possible with high accuracy and an immaculate recommendation score.


A Ubiquitous Unifying Degeneracy in Two-Body Microlensing Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While gravitational microlensing by planetary systems provides unique vistas on the properties of exoplanets, observations of a given 2-body microlensing event can often be interpreted with multiple distinct physical configurations. Such ambiguities are typically attributed to the close-wide and inner-outer types of degeneracies that arise from transformation invariances and symmetries of microlensing caustics. However, there remain unexplained inconsistencies between aforementioned theories and observations. Here, leveraging a fast machine learning inference framework, we present the discovery of the offset degeneracy, which concerns a magnification-matching behaviour on the lens-axis and is formulated independent of caustics. This offset degeneracy unifies the close-wide and inner-outer degeneracies, generalises to resonant topologies, and upon reanalysis, not only appears ubiquitous in previously published planetary events with 2-fold degenerate solutions, but also resolves prior inconsistencies. Our analysis demonstrates that degenerate caustics do not strictly result in degenerate magnifications and that the commonly invoked close-wide degeneracy essentially never arises in actual events. Moreover, it is shown that parameters in offset degenerate configurations are related by a simple expression. This suggests the existence of a deeper symmetry in the equations governing 2-body lenses than previously recognised.


A Machine Learning Analysis of COVID-19 Mental Health Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In late December 2019, the novel coronavirus (Sars-Cov-2) and the resulting disease COVID-19 were first identified in Wuhan China. The disease slipped through containment measures, with the first known case in the United States being identified on January 20th, 2020. In this paper, we utilize survey data from the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research and apply several statistical and machine learning models and techniques such as Decision Trees, Multinomial Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, k-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks, Random Forests, Gradient Tree Boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, Synthetic Minority Oversampling, and Chi-Squared Test to analyze the impacts the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the mental health of frontline workers in the United States. Through the interpretation of the many models applied to the mental health survey data, we have concluded that the most important factor in predicting the mental health decline of a frontline worker is the healthcare role the individual is in (Nurse, Emergency Room Staff, Surgeon, etc.), followed by the amount of sleep the individual has had in the last week, the amount of COVID-19 related news an individual has consumed on average in a day, the age of the worker, and the usage of alcohol and cannabis.



Assumptions of Linear Regression -- What Fellow Data Scientists Should Know

#artificialintelligence

Linear Regression is a linear approach to modeling the relationship between a target variable and one or more independent variables. This modeled relationship is then used for predictive analytics. Working on the linear regression algorithm is just half the work done. For linear regression to work on the given data, it is assumed that Errors (residuals) follow a normal distribution. Although this is not necessarily required when the sample size is very large.


Memory-Efficient Convex Optimization for Self-Dictionary Separable Nonnegative Matrix Factorization: A Frank-Wolfe Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) often relies on the separability condition for tractable algorithm design. Separability-based NMF is mainly handled by two types of approaches, namely, greedy pursuit and convex programming. A notable convex NMF formulation is the so-called self-dictionary multiple measurement vectors (SD-MMV), which can work without knowing the matrix rank a priori, and is arguably more resilient to error propagation relative to greedy pursuit. However, convex SD-MMV renders a large memory cost that scales quadratically with the problem size. This memory challenge has been around for a decade, and a major obstacle for applying convex SD-MMV to big data analytics. This work proposes a memory-efficient algorithm for convex SD-MMV. Our algorithm capitalizes on the special update rules of a classic algorithm from the 1950s, namely, the Frank-Wolfe (FW) algorithm. It is shown that, under reasonable conditions, the FW algorithm solves the noisy SD-MMV problem with a memory cost that grows linearly with the amount of data. To handle noisier scenarios, a smoothed group sparsity regularizer is proposed to improve robustness while maintaining the low memory footprint with guarantees. The proposed approach presents the first linear memory complexity algorithmic framework for convex SD-MMV based NMF. The method is tested over a couple of unsupervised learning tasks, i.e., text mining and community detection, to showcase its effectiveness and memory efficiency.


Residue-based Label Protection Mechanisms in Vertical Logistic Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) enables distributed participants to collaboratively learn a global model without revealing their private data to each other. Recently, vertical FL, where the participants hold the same set of samples but with different features, has received increased attention. This paper first presents one label inference attack method to investigate the potential privacy leakages of the vertical logistic regression model. Specifically, we discover that the attacker can utilize the residue variables, which are calculated by solving the system of linear equations constructed by local dataset and the received decrypted gradients, to infer the privately owned labels. To deal with this, we then propose three protection mechanisms, e.g., additive noise mechanism, multiplicative noise mechanism, and hybrid mechanism which leverages local differential privacy and homomorphic encryption techniques, to prevent the attack and improve the robustness of the vertical logistic regression. model. Experimental results show that both the additive noise mechanism and the multiplicative noise mechanism can achieve efficient label protection with only a slight drop in model testing accuracy, furthermore, the hybrid mechanism can achieve label protection without any testing accuracy degradation, which demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of our protection techniques


A Unified Bayesian Framework for Pricing Catastrophe Bond Derivatives

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Catastrophe (CAT) bond markets are incomplete and hence carry uncertainty in instrument pricing. As such various pricing approaches have been proposed, but none treat the uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in a sufficiently flexible and statistically reliable way within a unifying asset pricing framework. Consequently, little is known empirically about the expected risk-premia of CAT bonds. The primary contribution of this paper is to present a unified Bayesian CAT bond pricing framework based on uncertainty quantification of catastrophes and interest rates. Our framework allows for complex beliefs about catastrophe risks to capture the distinct and common patterns in catastrophe occurrences, and when combined with stochastic interest rates, yields a unified asset pricing approach with informative expected risk premia. Specifically, using a modified collective risk model -- Dirichlet Prior-Hierarchical Bayesian Collective Risk Model (DP-HBCRM) framework -- we model catastrophe risk via a model-based clustering approach. Interest rate risk is modeled as a CIR process under the Bayesian approach. As a consequence of casting CAT pricing models into our framework, we evaluate the price and expected risk premia of various CAT bond contracts corresponding to clustering of catastrophe risk profiles. Numerical experiments show how these clusters reveal how CAT bond prices and expected risk premia relate to claim frequency and loss severity.


Unsupervised Belief Representation Learning with Information-Theoretic Variational Graph Auto-Encoders

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper develops a novel unsupervised algorithm for belief representation learning in polarized networks that (i) uncovers the latent dimensions of the underlying belief space and (ii) jointly embeds users and content items (that they interact with) into that space in a manner that facilitates a number of downstream tasks, such as stance detection, stance prediction, and ideology mapping. Inspired by total correlation in information theory, we propose the Information-Theoretic Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (InfoVGAE) that learns to project both users and content items (e.g., posts that represent user views) into an appropriate disentangled latent space. To better disentangle latent variables in that space, we develop a total correlation regularization module, a Proportional-Integral (PI) control module, and adopt rectified Gaussian distribution to ensure the orthogonality. The latent representation of users and content can then be used to quantify their ideological leaning and detect/predict their stances on issues. We evaluate the performance of the proposed InfoVGAE on three real-world datasets, of which two are collected from Twitter and one from U.S. Congress voting records. The evaluation results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised models by reducing 10.5% user clustering errors and achieving 12.1% higher F1 scores for stance separation of content items. In addition, InfoVGAE produces a comparable result with supervised models. We also discuss its performance on stance prediction and user ranking within ideological groups.