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 Statistical Learning


Mathematics for Machine Learning

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This intermediate-level course introduces the mathematical foundations to derive Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a fundamental dimensionality reduction technique. We'll cover some basic statistics of data sets, such as mean values and variances, we'll compute distances and angles between vectors using inner products and derive orthogonal projections of data onto lower-dimensional subspaces. Using all these tools, we'll then derive PCA as a method that minimizes the average squared reconstruction error between data points and their reconstruction. At the end of this course, you'll be familiar with important mathematical concepts and you can implement PCA all by yourself. If you're struggling, you'll find a set of jupyter notebooks that will allow you to explore properties of the techniques and walk you through what you need to do to get on track.


Metrics of calibration for probabilistic predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predictions are often probabilities; e.g., a prediction could be for precipitation tomorrow, but with only a 30% chance. Given such probabilistic predictions together with the actual outcomes, "reliability diagrams" help detect and diagnose statistically significant discrepancies -- so-called "miscalibration" -- between the predictions and the outcomes. The canonical reliability diagrams histogram the observed and expected values of the predictions; replacing the hard histogram binning with soft kernel density estimation is another common practice. But, which widths of bins or kernels are best? Plots of the cumulative differences between the observed and expected values largely avoid this question, by displaying miscalibration directly as the slopes of secant lines for the graphs. Slope is easy to perceive with quantitative precision, even when the constant offsets of the secant lines are irrelevant; there is no need to bin or perform kernel density estimation. The existing standard metrics of miscalibration each summarize a reliability diagram as a single scalar statistic. The cumulative plots naturally lead to scalar metrics for the deviation of the graph of cumulative differences away from zero; good calibration corresponds to a horizontal, flat graph which deviates little from zero. The cumulative approach is currently unconventional, yet offers many favorable statistical properties, guaranteed via mathematical theory backed by rigorous proofs and illustrative numerical examples. In particular, metrics based on binning or kernel density estimation unavoidably must trade-off statistical confidence for the ability to resolve variations as a function of the predicted probability or vice versa. Widening the bins or kernels averages away random noise while giving up some resolving power. Narrowing the bins or kernels enhances resolving power while not averaging away as much noise.


Simple Kinesthetic Haptics for Object Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Object recognition is an essential capability when performing various tasks. Humans naturally use either or both visual and tactile perception to extract object class and properties. Typical approaches for robots, however, require complex visual systems or multiple high-density tactile sensors which can be highly expensive. In addition, they usually require actual collection of a large dataset from real objects through direct interaction. In this paper, we propose a kinesthetic-based object recognition method that can be performed with any multi-fingered robotic hand in which the kinematics is known. The method does not require tactile sensors and is based on observing grasps of the objects. We utilize a unique and frame invariant parameterization of grasps to learn instances of object shapes. To train a classifier, training data is generated rapidly and solely in a computational process without interaction with real objects. We then propose and compare between two iterative algorithms that can integrate any trained classifier. The classifiers and algorithms are independent of any particular robot hand and, therefore, can be exerted on various ones. We show in experiments, that with few grasps, the algorithms acquire accurate classification. Furthermore, we show that the object recognition approach is scalable to objects of various sizes. Similarly, a global classifier is trained to identify general geometries (e.g., an ellipsoid or a box) rather than particular ones and demonstrated on a large set of objects. Full scale experiments and analysis are provided to show the performance of the method.


Bayesian Statistics Guided Label Refurbishment Mechanism: Mitigating Label Noise in Medical Image Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Purpose: Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been widely applied in medical image classification, benefiting from its powerful mapping capability among medical images. However, these existing deep learning-based methods depend on an enormous amount of carefully labeled images. Meanwhile, noise is inevitably introduced in the labeling process, degrading the performance of models. Hence, it's significant to devise robust training strategies to mitigate label noise in the medical image classification tasks. Methods: In this work, we propose a novel Bayesian statistics guided label refurbishment mechanism (BLRM) for DNNs to prevent overfitting noisy images. BLRM utilizes maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) in the Bayesian statistics and the exponentially time-weighted technique to selectively correct the labels of noisy images. The training images are purified gradually with the training epochs when BLRM is activated, further improving classification performance. Results: Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic noisy images (public OCT & Messidor datasets) and real-world noisy images (ANIMAL-10N) demonstrate that BLRM refurbishes the noisy labels selectively, curbing the adverse effects of noisy data. Also, the anti-noise BLRM integrated with DNNs are effective at different noise ratio and are independent of backbone DNN architectures. In addition, BLRM is superior to state-of-the-art comparative methods of anti-noise. Conclusions: These investigations indicate that the proposed BLRM is well capable of mitigating label noise in medical image classification tasks.


Understanding Linear Regression

#artificialintelligence

Linear regression is a regression model which outputs a numeric value. It is used to predict an outcome based on a linear set of input. As you can guess this function represents a linear line in the coordinate system. The hypothesis function (h0) approximates the output given input. A linear regression model can either represent a univariate or a multivariate problem.


Machine Learning: Classification

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In our case study on analyzing sentiment, you will create models that predict a class (positive/negative sentiment) from input features (text of the reviews, user profile information,...). In our second case study for this course, loan default prediction, you will tackle financial data, and predict when a loan is likely to be risky or safe for the bank. These tasks are an examples of classification, one of the most widely used areas of machine learning, with a broad array of applications, including ad targeting, spam detection, medical diagnosis and image classification. In this course, you will create classifiers that provide state-of-the-art performance on a variety of tasks. You will become familiar with the most successful techniques, which are most widely used in practice, including logistic regression, decision trees and boosting.


Crust Macrofracturing as the Evidence of the Last Deglaciation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning methods were applied to reconsider the results of several passive seismic experiments in Finland. We created datasets from different stages of the receiver function technique and processed them with one of basic machine learning algorithms. All the results were obtained uniformly with the $k$-nearest neighbors algorithm. The first result is the Moho depth map of the region. Another result is the delineation of the near-surface low $S$-wave velocity layer. There are three such areas in the Northern, Southern, and central parts of the region. The low $S$-wave velocity in the Northern and Southern areas can be linked to the geological structure. However, we attribute the central low $S$-wave velocity area to a large number of water-saturated cracks in the upper 1-5 km. Analysis of the structure of this area leads us to the conclusion that macrofracturing was caused by the last deglaciation.


On the safe use of prior densities for Bayesian model selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal likelihoods depends on the prior choice. For model selection, even diffuse priors can be actually very informative, unlike for the parameter estimation problem. Furthermore, when the prior is improper, the marginal likelihood of the corresponding model is undetermined. In this work, we discuss the issue of prior sensitivity of the marginal likelihood and its role in model selection. We also comment on the use of uninformative priors, which are very common choices in practice. Several practical suggestions are discussed and many possible solutions, proposed in the literature, to design objective priors for model selection are described. Some of them also allow the use of improper priors. The connection between the marginal likelihood approach and the well-known information criteria is also presented. We describe the main issues and possible solutions by illustrative numerical examples, providing also some related code. One of them involving a real-world application on exoplanet detection.


Graph Representation Learning in Biomedicine

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Networks (or graphs) are pervasive in biology and medicine, from molecular interaction maps to populationscale social and health interactions. With the multitude of bioentities and associations that can be described by networks, they are prevailing representations of biological organization and biomedical knowledge. For instance, edges in a regulatory network can indicate causal activating and inhibitory relationships between genes [149]; edges between genes and diseases can indicate genes that are'upregulated by', 'downregulated by', or'associated with' a disease [141]; and edges in a knowledge network built from electronic health records (EHR) can indicate co-occurrences of medical codes across patients [81, 156, 161]. The ability to model all biomedical discoveries to date--even overlay patient-specific information--in a unified data representation has driven the development of artificial intelligence, specifically deep learning, for networks. In fact, the diversity and multimodality in networks not only boost performance of predictive models, but importantly enable broad generalization to settings not seen during training [74] and improve model interpretability [31, 140]. Nevertheless, interactions in networks give rise to a bewildering degree of complexity that can likely only be fully understood through a holistic and integrated view [14, 22, 137]. As a result, systems biology and medicine-- upon which deep learning on graphs is founded--have identified over the last two decades organizing principles that govern networks [13, 66, 85, 227]. 1


A Free Lunch with Influence Functions? Improving Neural Network Estimates with Concepts from Semiparametric Statistics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Parameter estimation in empirical fields is usually undertaken using parametric models, and such models readily facilitate statistical inference. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to be sufficiently flexible to be able to adequately model real-world phenomena, and may yield biased estimates. Conversely, non-parametric approaches are flexible but do not readily facilitate statistical inference and may still exhibit residual bias. We explore the potential for Influence Functions (IFs) to (a) improve initial estimators without needing more data (b) increase model robustness and (c) facilitate statistical inference. We begin with a broad introduction to IFs, and propose a neural network method 'MultiNet', which seeks the diversity of an ensemble using a single architecture. We also introduce variants on the IF update step which we call 'MultiStep', and provide a comprehensive evaluation of different approaches. The improvements are found to be dataset dependent, indicating an interaction between the methods used and nature of the data generating process. Our experiments highlight the need for practitioners to check the consistency of their findings, potentially by undertaking multiple analyses with different combinations of estimators. We also show that it is possible to improve existing neural networks for `free', without needing more data, and without needing to retrain them.