Statistical Learning
Learning to Sell a Focal-ancillary Combination
Wang, Hanzhao, Li, Xiaocheng, Talluri, Kalyan
A number of products are sold in the following sequence: First a focal product is shown, and if the customer purchases, one or more ancillary products are displayed for purchase. A prominent example is the sale of an airline ticket, where first the flight is shown, and when chosen, a number of ancillaries such as cabin or hold bag options, seat selection, insurance etc. are presented. The firm has to decide on a sale format -- whether to sell them in sequence unbundled, or together as a bundle -- and how to price the focal and ancillary products, separately or as a bundle. Since the ancillary is considered by the customer only after the purchase of the focal product, the sale strategy chosen by the firm creates an information and learning dependency between the products: for instance, offering only a bundle would preclude learning customers' valuation for the focal and ancillary products individually. In this paper we study learning strategies for such focal and ancillary item combinations under the following scenarios: (a) pure unbundling to all customers, (b) personalized mechanism, where, depending on some observed features of the customers, the two products are presented and priced as a bundle or in sequence, (c) initially unbundling (for all customers), and switch to bundling (if more profitable) permanently once during the horizon. We design pricing and decisions algorithms for all three scenarios, with regret upper bounded by $O(d \sqrt{T} \log T)$, and an optimal switching time for the third scenario.
Interpretable Graph Neural Networks for Connectome-Based Brain Disorder Analysis
Cui, Hejie, Dai, Wei, Zhu, Yanqiao, Li, Xiaoxiao, He, Lifang, Yang, Carl
Human brains lie at the core of complex neurobiological systems, where the neurons, circuits, and subsystems interact in enigmatic ways. Understanding the structural and functional mechanisms of the brain has long been an intriguing pursuit for neuroscience research and clinical disorder therapy. Mapping the connections of the human brain as a network is one of the most pervasive paradigms in neuroscience. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently emerged as a potential method for modeling complex network data. Deep models, on the other hand, have low interpretability, which prevents their usage in decision-critical contexts like healthcare. To bridge this gap, we propose an interpretable framework to analyze disorder-specific Regions of Interest (ROIs) and prominent connections. The proposed framework consists of two modules: a brain-network-oriented backbone model for disease prediction and a globally shared explanation generator that highlights disorder-specific biomarkers including salient ROIs and important connections. We conduct experiments on three real-world datasets of brain disorders. The results verify that our framework can obtain outstanding performance and also identify meaningful biomarkers. All code for this work is available at https://github.com/HennyJie/IBGNN.git.
Testing the Robustness of Learned Index Structures
Bachfischer, Matthias, Borovica-Gajic, Renata, Rubinstein, Benjamin I. P.
While early empirical evidence has supported the case for learned index structures as having favourable average-case performance, little is known about their worst-case performance. By contrast, classical structures are known to achieve optimal worst-case behaviour. This work evaluates the robustness of learned index structures in the presence of adversarial workloads. To simulate adversarial workloads, we carry out a data poisoning attack on linear regression models that manipulates the cumulative distribution function (CDF) on which the learned index model is trained. The attack deteriorates the fit of the underlying ML model by injecting a set of poisoning keys into the training dataset, which leads to an increase in the prediction error of the model and thus deteriorates the overall performance of the learned index structure. We assess the performance of various regression methods and the learned index implementations ALEX and PGM-Index. We show that learned index structures can suffer from a significant performance deterioration of up to 20% when evaluated on poisoned vs. non-poisoned datasets.
Robust Onboard Localization in Changing Environments Exploiting Text Spotting
Zimmerman, Nicky, Wiesmann, Louis, Guadagnino, Tiziano, Läbe, Thomas, Behley, Jens, Stachniss, Cyrill
Robust localization in a given map is a crucial component of most autonomous robots. In this paper, we address the problem of localizing in an indoor environment that changes and where prominent structures have no correspondence in the map built at a different point in time. To overcome the discrepancy between the map and the observed environment caused by such changes, we exploit human-readable localization cues to assist localization. These cues are readily available in most facilities and can be detected using RGB camera images by utilizing text spotting. We integrate these cues into a Monte Carlo localization framework using a particle filter that operates on 2D LiDAR scans and camera data. By this, we provide a robust localization solution for environments with structural changes and dynamics by humans walking. We evaluate our localization framework on multiple challenging indoor scenarios in an office environment. The experiments suggest that our approach is robust to structural changes and can run on an onboard computer. We release an open source implementation of our approach (upon paper acceptance), which uses off-the-shelf text spotting, written in C++ with a ROS wrapper.
Personalized Promotion Decision Making Based on Direct and Enduring Effect Predictions
Yang, Jie, Li, Yilin, Jobson, Deddy
Promotions have been trending in the e-commerce marketplace to build up customer relationships and guide customers towards the desired actions. Since incentives are effective to engage customers and customers have different preferences for different types of incentives, the demand for personalized promotion decision making is increasing over time. However, research on promotion decision making has focused specifically on purchase conversion during the promotion period (the direct effect), while generally disregarding the enduring effect in the post promotion period. To achieve a better lift return on investment (lift ROI) on the enduring effect of the promotion and improve customer retention and loyalty, we propose a framework of multiple treatment promotion decision making by modeling each customer's direct and enduring response. First, we propose a customer direct and enduring effect (CDEE) model which predicts the customer direct and enduring response. With the help of the predictions of the CDEE, we personalize incentive allocation to optimize the enduring effect while keeping the cost under the budget. To estimate the effect of decision making, we apply an unbiased evaluation approach of business metrics with randomized control trial (RCT) data. We compare our method with benchmarks using two promotions in Mercari and achieve significantly better results.
When Counting Meets HMER: Counting-Aware Network for Handwritten Mathematical Expression Recognition
Li, Bohan, Yuan, Ye, Liang, Dingkang, Liu, Xiao, Ji, Zhilong, Bai, Jinfeng, Liu, Wenyu, Bai, Xiang
Recently, most handwritten mathematical expression recognition (HMER) methods adopt the encoder-decoder networks, which directly predict the markup sequences from formula images with the attention mechanism. However, such methods may fail to accurately read formulas with complicated structure or generate long markup sequences, as the attention results are often inaccurate due to the large variance of writing styles or spatial layouts. To alleviate this problem, we propose an unconventional network for HMER named Counting-Aware Network (CAN), which jointly optimizes two tasks: HMER and symbol counting. Specifically, we design a weakly-supervised counting module that can predict the number of each symbol class without the symbol-level position annotations, and then plug it into a typical attention-based encoder-decoder model for HMER. Experiments on the benchmark datasets for HMER validate that both joint optimization and counting results are beneficial for correcting the prediction errors of encoder-decoder models, and CAN consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. In particular, compared with an encoder-decoder model for HMER, the extra time cost caused by the proposed counting module is marginal. The source code is available at https://github.com/LBH1024/CAN.
Vaccine Discourse on Twitter During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Lindelöf, Gabriel, Aledavood, Talayeh, Keller, Barbara
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines have been an important topic in public discourse. The discussions around vaccines are polarized as some see them as an important measure to end the pandemic, and others are hesitant or find them harmful. This study investigates posts related to COVID-19 vaccines on Twitter and focuses on those which have a negative stance toward vaccines. A dataset of 16,713,238 English tweets related to COVID-19 vaccines was collected covering the period from March 1, 2020, to July 31, 2021. We used the Scikit-learn Python library to apply a support vector machine (SVM) classifier to identify the tweets with a negative stance toward the COVID-19 vaccines. A total of 5,163 tweets were used to train the classifier, out of which a subset of 2,484 tweets were manually annotated by us and made publicly available. We used the BERTtopic model to extract and investigate the topics discussed within the negative tweets and how they changed over time. We show that the negativity with respect to COVID-19 vaccines has decreased over time along with the vaccine roll-outs. We identify 37 topics of discussion and present their respective importance over time. We show that popular topics consist of conspiratorial discussions such as 5G towers and microchips, but also contain legitimate concerns around vaccination safety and side effects as well as concerns about policies. Our study shows that even unpopular opinions or conspiracy theories can become widespread when paired with a widely popular discussion topic such as COVID-19 vaccines. Understanding the concerns and the discussed topics and how they change over time is essential for policymakers and public health authorities to provide better and in-time information and policies, to facilitate vaccination of the population in future similar crises.
Tensor-based Multi-view Spectral Clustering via Shared Latent Space
Tao, Qinghua, Tonin, Francesco, Patrinos, Panagiotis, Suykens, Johan A. K.
Multi-view Spectral Clustering (MvSC) attracts increasing attention due to diverse data sources. However, most existing works are prohibited in out-of-sample predictions and overlook model interpretability and exploration of clustering results. In this paper, a new method for MvSC is proposed via a shared latent space from the Restricted Kernel Machine framework. Through the lens of conjugate feature duality, we cast the weighted kernel principal component analysis problem for MvSC and develop a modified weighted conjugate feature duality to formulate dual variables. In our method, the dual variables, playing the role of hidden features, are shared by all views to construct a common latent space, coupling the views by learning projections from view-specific spaces. Such single latent space promotes well-separated clusters and provides straightforward data exploration, facilitating visualization and interpretation. Our method requires only a single eigendecomposition, whose dimension is independent of the number of views. To boost higher-order correlations, tensor-based modelling is introduced without increasing computational complexity. Our method can be flexibly applied with out-of-sample extensions, enabling greatly improved efficiency for large-scale data with fixed-size kernel schemes. Numerical experiments verify that our method is effective regarding accuracy, efficiency, and interpretability, showing a sharp eigenvalue decay and distinct latent variable distributions.
Multimodal Emotion Recognition with Modality-Pairwise Unsupervised Contrastive Loss
Franceschini, Riccardo, Fini, Enrico, Beyan, Cigdem, Conti, Alessandro, Arrigoni, Federica, Ricci, Elisa
Emotion recognition is involved in several real-world applications. With an increase in available modalities, automatic understanding of emotions is being performed more accurately. The success in Multimodal Emotion Recognition (MER), primarily relies on the supervised learning paradigm. However, data annotation is expensive, time-consuming, and as emotion expression and perception depends on several factors (e.g., age, gender, culture) obtaining labels with a high reliability is hard. Motivated by these, we focus on unsupervised feature learning for MER. We consider discrete emotions, and as modalities text, audio and vision are used. Our method, as being based on contrastive loss between pairwise modalities, is the first attempt in MER literature. Our end-to-end feature learning approach has several differences (and advantages) compared to existing MER methods: i) it is unsupervised, so the learning is lack of data labelling cost; ii) it does not require data spatial augmentation, modality alignment, large number of batch size or epochs; iii) it applies data fusion only at inference; and iv) it does not require backbones pre-trained on emotion recognition task. The experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms several baseline approaches and unsupervised learning methods applied in MER. Particularly, it even surpasses a few supervised MER state-of-the-art.
Multiscale Neural Operator: Learning Fast and Grid-independent PDE Solvers
Lütjens, Björn, Crawford, Catherine H., Watson, Campbell D, Hill, Christopher, Newman, Dava
Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our \textit{multiscale neural operator} is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.