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 Statistical Learning


Quantized Adaptive Subgradient Algorithms and Their Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data explosion and an increase in model size drive the remarkable advances in large-scale machine learning, but also make model training time-consuming and model storage difficult. To address the above issues in the distributed model training setting which has high computation efficiency and less device limitation, there are still two main difficulties. On one hand, the communication costs for exchanging information, e.g., stochastic gradients among different workers, is a key bottleneck for distributed training efficiency. On the other hand, less parameter model is easy for storage and communication, but the risk of damaging the model performance. To balance the communication costs, model capacity and model performance simultaneously, we propose quantized composite mirror descent adaptive subgradient (QCMD adagrad) and quantized regularized dual average adaptive subgradient (QRDA adagrad) for distributed training. To be specific, we explore the combination of gradient quantization and sparse model to reduce the communication cost per iteration in distributed training. A quantized gradient-based adaptive learning rate matrix is constructed to achieve a balance between communication costs, accuracy, and model sparsity. Moreover, we theoretically find that a large quantization error brings in extra noise, which influences the convergence and sparsity of the model. Therefore, a threshold quantization strategy with a relatively small error is adopted in QCMD adagrad and QRDA adagrad to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and preserve the sparsity of the model. Both theoretical analyses and empirical results demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed algorithms.


Comparison of Forecasting Methods of House Electricity Consumption for Honda Smart Home

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The electricity consumption of buildings composes a major part of the city's energy consumption. Electricity consumption forecasting enables the development of home energy management systems resulting in the future design of more sustainable houses and a decrease in total energy consumption. Energy performance in buildings is influenced by many factors like ambient temperature, humidity, and a variety of electrical devices. Therefore, multivariate prediction methods are preferred rather than univariate. The Honda Smart Home US data set was selected to compare three methods for minimizing forecasting errors, MAE and RMSE: Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems for Regression by constructing many models for each method on a multivariate data set in different time terms. The comparison shows that SVR is a superior method over the alternatives.


Predicting Tornadoes days ahead with Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Developing methods to predict disastrous natural phenomena is more important than ever, and tornadoes are among the most dangerous ones in nature. Due to the unpredictability of the weather, counteracting them is not an easy task and today it is mainly carried out by expert meteorologists, who interpret meteorological models. In this paper we propose a system for the early detection of a tornado, validating its effectiveness in a real-world context and exploiting meteorological data collection systems that are already widespread throughout the world. Our system was able to predict tornadoes with a maximum probability of 84% up to five days before the event on a novel dataset of more than 5000 tornadic and non-tornadic events. The dataset and the code to reproduce our results are available at: https://tinyurl.com/3brsfwpk


Cine-AI: Generating Video Game Cutscenes in the Style of Human Directors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cutscenes form an integral part of many video games, but their creation is costly, time-consuming, and requires skills that many game developers lack. While AI has been leveraged to semi-automate cutscene production, the results typically lack the internal consistency and uniformity in style that is characteristic of professional human directors. We overcome this shortcoming with Cine-AI, an open-source procedural cinematography toolset capable of generating in-game cutscenes in the style of eminent human directors. Implemented in the popular game engine Unity, Cine-AI features a novel timeline and storyboard interface for design-time manipulation, combined with runtime cinematography automation. Via two user studies, each employing quantitative and qualitative measures, we demonstrate that Cine-AI generates cutscenes that people correctly associate with a target director, while providing above-average usability. Our director imitation dataset is publicly available, and can be extended by users and film enthusiasts.


A Visual Analytics System for Improving Attention-based Traffic Forecasting Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With deep learning (DL) outperforming conventional methods for different tasks, much effort has been devoted to utilizing DL in various domains. Researchers and developers in the traffic domain have also designed and improved DL models for forecasting tasks such as estimation of traffic speed and time of arrival. However, there exist many challenges in analyzing DL models due to the black-box property of DL models and complexity of traffic data (i.e., spatio-temporal dependencies). Collaborating with domain experts, we design a visual analytics system, AttnAnalyzer, that enables users to explore how DL models make predictions by allowing effective spatio-temporal dependency analysis. The system incorporates dynamic time warping (DTW) and Granger causality tests for computational spatio-temporal dependency analysis while providing map, table, line chart, and pixel views to assist user to perform dependency and model behavior analysis. For the evaluation, we present three case studies showing how AttnAnalyzer can effectively explore model behaviors and improve model performance in two different road networks. We also provide domain expert feedback.


Optimal Extragradient-Based Bilinearly-Coupled Saddle-Point Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the smooth convex-concave bilinearly-coupled saddle-point problem, $\min_{\mathbf{x}}\max_{\mathbf{y}}~F(\mathbf{x}) + H(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y}) - G(\mathbf{y})$, where one has access to stochastic first-order oracles for $F$, $G$ as well as the bilinear coupling function $H$. Building upon standard stochastic extragradient analysis for variational inequalities, we present a stochastic \emph{accelerated gradient-extragradient (AG-EG)} descent-ascent algorithm that combines extragradient and Nesterov's acceleration in general stochastic settings. This algorithm leverages scheduled restarting to admit a fine-grained nonasymptotic convergence rate that matches known lower bounds by both \citet{ibrahim2020linear} and \citet{zhang2021lower} in their corresponding settings, plus an additional statistical error term for bounded stochastic noise that is optimal up to a constant prefactor. This is the first result that achieves such a relatively mature characterization of optimality in saddle-point optimization.


Scalable and Sparsity-Aware Privacy-Preserving K-means Clustering with Application to Fraud Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

K-means is one of the most widely used clustering models in practice. Due to the problem of data isolation and the requirement for high model performance, how to jointly build practical and secure K-means for multiple parties has become an important topic for many applications in the industry. Existing work on this is mainly of two types. The first type has efficiency advantages, but information leakage raises potential privacy risks. The second type is provable secure but is inefficient and even helpless for the large-scale data sparsity scenario. In this paper, we propose a new framework for efficient sparsity-aware K-means with three characteristics. First, our framework is divided into a data-independent offline phase and a much faster online phase, and the offline phase allows to pre-compute almost all cryptographic operations. Second, we take advantage of the vectorization techniques in both online and offline phases. Third, we adopt a sparse matrix multiplication for the data sparsity scenario to improve efficiency further. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three synthetic datasets and deploy our model in a real-world fraud detection task. Our experimental results show that, compared with the state-of-the-art solution, our model achieves competitive performance in terms of both running time and communication size, especially on sparse datasets.


A Discriminative Hierarchical PLDA-based Model for Spoken Language Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spoken language recognition (SLR) refers to the automatic process used to determine the language present in a speech sample. SLR is an important task in its own right, for example, as a tool to analyze or categorize large amounts of multi-lingual data. Further, it is also an essential tool for selecting downstream applications in a work flow, for example, to chose appropriate speech recognition or machine translation models. SLR systems are usually composed of two stages, one where an embedding representing the audio sample is extracted and a second one which computes the final scores for each language. In this work, we approach the SLR task as a detection problem and implement the second stage as a probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) model. We show that discriminative training of the PLDA parameters gives large gains with respect to the usual generative training. Further, we propose a novel hierarchical approach where two PLDA models are trained, one to generate scores for clusters of highly-related languages and a second one to generate scores conditional to each cluster. The final language detection scores are computed as a combination of these two sets of scores. The complete model is trained discriminatively to optimize a cross-entropy objective. We show that this hierarchical approach consistently outperforms the non-hierarchical one for detection of highly related languages, in many cases by large margins. We train our systems on a collection of datasets including over 100 languages, and test them both on matched and mismatched conditions, showing that the gains are robust to condition mismatch.


Machine Learning Checklist: Cost Function and Gradient Descent

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Linear Regression in Python

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This tutorial will focus on two main broad topics that are Simple Linear Regression and Multiple Linear regression. Throughout the tutorial, key points are illustrated with clear, step-by-step examples for better understanding. By the end of the tutorial, you will be able to compute all of the essential outputs for simple linear regression and multiple regression. Most important, you will be able to correctly interpret the outputs you produce. Linear regression is a common Statistical Data Analysis technique that is widely being used.