The tritium breeding ratio (TBR) is an essential quantity for the design of modern and next-generation D-T fueled nuclear fusion reactors. Representing the ratio between tritium fuel generated in breeding blankets and fuel consumed during reactor runtime, the TBR depends on reactor geometry and material properties in a complex manner. In this work, we explored the training of surrogate models to produce a cheap but high-quality approximation for a Monte Carlo TBR model in use at the UK Atomic Energy Authority. We investigated possibilities for dimensional reduction of its feature space, reviewed 9 families of surrogate models for potential applicability, and performed hyperparameter optimisation. Here we present the performance and scaling properties of these models, the fastest of which, an artificial neural network, demonstrated $R^2=0.985$ and a mean prediction time of $0.898\ \mu\mathrm{s}$, representing a relative speedup of $8\cdot 10^6$ with respect to the expensive MC model. We further present a novel adaptive sampling algorithm, Quality-Adaptive Surrogate Sampling, capable of interfacing with any of the individually studied surrogates. Our preliminary testing on a toy TBR theory has demonstrated the efficacy of this algorithm for accelerating the surrogate modelling process.

In this paper, we propose to solve a regularized distributionally robust learning problem in the decentralized setting, taking into account the data distribution shift. By adding a Kullback-Liebler regularization function to the robust min-max optimization problem, the learning problem can be reduced to a modified robust minimization problem and solved efficiently. Leveraging the newly formulated optimization problem, we propose a robust version of Decentralized Stochastic Gradient Descent (DSGD), coined Distributionally Robust Decentralized Stochastic Gradient Descent (DR-DSGD). Under some mild assumptions and provided that the regularization parameter is larger than one, we theoretically prove that DR-DSGD achieves a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}\left(1/\sqrt{KT} + K/T\right)$, where $K$ is the number of devices and $T$ is the number of iterations. Simulation results show that our proposed algorithm can improve the worst distribution test accuracy by up to $10\%$. Moreover, DR-DSGD is more communication-efficient than DSGD since it requires fewer communication rounds (up to $20$ times less) to achieve the same worst distribution test accuracy target. Furthermore, the conducted experiments reveal that DR-DSGD results in a fairer performance across devices in terms of test accuracy.

Data stream classification is an important problem in the field of machine learning. Due to the non-stationary nature of the data where the underlying distribution changes over time (concept drift), the model needs to continuously adapt to new data statistics. Stream-based Active Learning (AL) approaches address this problem by interactively querying a human expert to provide new data labels for the most recent samples, within a limited budget. Existing AL strategies assume that labels are immediately available, while in a real-world scenario the expert requires time to provide a queried label (verification latency), and by the time the requested labels arrive they may not be relevant anymore. In this article, we investigate the influence of finite, time-variable, and unknown verification delay, in the presence of concept drift on AL approaches. We propose PRopagate (PR), a latency independent utility estimator which also predicts the requested, but not yet known, labels. Furthermore, we propose a drift-dependent dynamic budget strategy, which uses a variable distribution of the labelling budget over time, after a detected drift. Thorough experimental evaluation, with both synthetic and real-world non-stationary datasets, and different settings of verification latency and budget are conducted and analyzed. We empirically show that the proposed method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art. Additionally, we demonstrate that with variable budget allocation in time, it is possible to boost the performance of AL strategies, without increasing the overall labeling budget.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) has been widely studied under the setting of starting from a small number of classes (base classes). Instead, we explore an understudied real-world setting of CIL that starts with a strong model pre-trained on a large number of base classes. We hypothesize that a strong base model can provide a good representation for novel classes and incremental learning can be done with small adaptations. We propose a 2-stage training scheme, i) feature augmentation -- cloning part of the backbone and fine-tuning it on the novel data, and ii) fusion -- combining the base and novel classifiers into a unified classifier. Experiments show that the proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art CIL methods on the large-scale ImageNet dataset (e.g. +10% overall accuracy than the best). We also propose and analyze understudied practical CIL scenarios, such as base-novel overlap with distribution shift. Our proposed method is robust and generalizes to all analyzed CIL settings. Code is available at https://github.com/amazon-research/sp-cil.

The problem of establishing out-of-sample bounds for the values of an unkonwn ground-truth function is considered. Kernels and their associated Hilbert spaces are the main formalism employed herein along with an observational model where outputs are corrupted by bounded measurement noise. The noise can originate from any compactly supported distribution and no independence assumptions are made on the available data. In this setting, we show how computing tight, finite-sample uncertainty bounds amounts to solving parametric quadratically constrained linear programs. Next, properties of our approach are established and its relationship with another methods is studied. Numerical experiments are presented to exemplify how the theory can be applied in a number of scenarios, and to contrast it with other closed-form alternatives.

We study stochastic gradient descent for solving conditional stochastic optimization problems, in which an objective to be minimized is given by a parametric nested expectation with an outer expectation taken with respect to one random variable and an inner conditional expectation with respect to the other random variable. The gradient of such a parametric nested expectation is again expressed as a nested expectation, which makes it hard for the standard nested Monte Carlo estimator to be unbiased. In this paper, we show under some conditions that a multilevel Monte Carlo gradient estimator is unbiased and has finite variance and finite expected computational cost, so that the standard theory from stochastic optimization for a parametric (non-nested) expectation directly applies. We also discuss a special case for which yet another unbiased gradient estimator with finite variance and cost can be constructed.

We all have experienced a time when we have to look up for a new house to buy. But then the journey begins with a lot of frauds, negotiating deals, researching the local areas and so on. So to deal with this kind of issues Today we will be preparing a MACHINE LEARNING Based model, trained on the House Price Prediction Dataset. As we have imported the data. So shape method will show us the dimension of the dataset.

Machine learning (ML) models, such as SVM, for tasks like classification and clustering of sequences, require a definition of distance/similarity between pairs of sequences. Several methods have been proposed to compute the similarity between sequences, such as the exact approach that counts the number of matches between $k$-mers (sub-sequences of length $k$) and an approximate approach that estimates pairwise similarity scores. Although exact methods yield better classification performance, they pose high computational costs, limiting their applicability to a small number of sequences. The approximate algorithms are proven to be more scalable and perform comparably to (sometimes better than) the exact methods -- they are designed in a "general" way to deal with different types of sequences (e.g., music, protein, etc.). Although general applicability is a desired property of an algorithm, it is not the case in all scenarios. For example, in the current COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, there is a need for an approach that can deal specifically with the coronavirus. To this end, we propose a series of ways to improve the performance of the approximate kernel (using minimizers and information gain) in order to enhance its predictive performance pm coronavirus sequences. More specifically, we improve the quality of the approximate kernel using domain knowledge (computed using information gain) and efficient preprocessing (using minimizers computation) to classify coronavirus spike protein sequences corresponding to different variants (e.g., Alpha, Beta, Gamma). We report results using different classification and clustering algorithms and evaluate their performance using multiple evaluation metrics. Using two datasets, we show that our proposed method helps improve the kernel's performance compared to the baseline and state-of-the-art approaches in the healthcare domain.

The multi-source electromechanical coupling makes the energy management of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) relatively nonlinear and complex especially in the types of 4-wheel-drive (4WD) FCEVs. Accurate state observing for complicated nonlinear system is the basis for fantastic energy managing in FCEVs. Aiming at releasing the energy-saving potential of FCEVs, a novel learning-based robust model predictive control (LRMPC) strategy is proposed for a 4WD FCEV, contributing to suitable power distribution among multiple energy sources. The well-designed strategy based on machine learning (ML) translates the knowledge of the nonlinear system to the explicit controlling scheme with superior robust performance. To start with, ML methods with high regression accuracy and superior generalization ability are trained offline to establish the precise state observer for SOC. Then, explicit data tables for SOC generated by state observer are used for grabbing accurate state changing, whose input features include the vehicle status and the states of vehicle components. To be specific, the vehicle velocity estimation for providing future speed reference is constructed by deep forest. Next, the components including explicit data tables and vehicle velocity estimation are combined with model predictive control (MPC) to release the state-of-the-art energy-saving ability for the multi-freedom system in FCEVs, whose name is LRMPC. At last, the detailed assessment is performed in simulation test to validate the advancing performance of LRMPC. The corresponding results highlight the optimal control effect in energy-saving potential and strong real-time application ability of LRMPC.

With the increased awareness of situations of mental crisis and their societal impact, online services providing emergency support are becoming commonplace in many countries. Computational models, trained on discussions between help-seekers and providers, can support suicide prevention by identifying at-risk individuals. However, the lack of domain-specific models, especially in low-resource languages, poses a significant challenge for the automatic detection of suicide risk. We propose a model that combines pre-trained language models (PLM) with a fixed set of manually crafted (and clinically approved) set of suicidal cues, followed by a two-stage fine-tuning process. Our model achieves 0.91 ROC-AUC and an F2-score of 0.55, significantly outperforming an array of strong baselines even early on in the conversation, which is critical for real-time detection in the field. Moreover, the model performs well across genders and age groups.