Bitcoin has been subject to illicit activities more often than probably any other financial assets, due to the pseudo-anonymous nature of its transacting entities. An ideal detection model is expected to achieve all the three properties of (I) early detection, (II) good interpretability, and (III) versatility for various illicit activities. However, existing solutions cannot meet all these requirements, as most of them heavily rely on deep learning without satisfying interpretability and are only available for retrospective analysis of a specific illicit type. First, we present asset transfer paths, which aim to describe addresses' early characteristics. Next, with a decision tree based strategy for feature selection and segmentation, we split the entire observation period into different segments and encode each as a segment vector. After clustering all these segment vectors, we get the global status vectors, essentially the basic unit to describe the whole intention. Finally, a hierarchical self-attention predictor predicts the label for the given address in real time. A survival module tells the predictor when to stop and proposes the status sequence, namely intention. % With the type-dependent selection strategy and global status vectors, our model can be applied to detect various illicit activities with strong interpretability. The well-designed predictor and particular loss functions strengthen the model's prediction speed and interpretability one step further. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets show that our proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Besides, additional case studies justify our model can not only explain existing illicit patterns but can also find new suspicious characters.

Mercer kernels play an important role in machine learning and is a mathematical basis of such techniques as kernel density estimation and spline models [14], Support Vector Machines [11], kernel principal components analysis [10], regularization of neural networks [13] and many others. According to Aronszajn's theorem, any Mercer kernel induces a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and vice versa, any RKHS corresponds to a kernel. A relationship between the latter two notions is decribed in the classical Mercer's theorem. A goal of this note is torefine this theoremandgive some estimates onthe speedof uniformconvergencestated in it.

Since 2021, with the emergence of CLIP, contrastive pre-training has been extended to supervised learning with image-text pairs. The purpose of this extension is to improve the transferability of learned visual features by aligning them to the corresponding text features, as text features are proved to be highly transferrable in GPT-3. By this extension, visual models could be adapted to downstream tasks in a zero/few-shot learning manner with good performances and data-efficiency. The original CLIP pre-training is image-level, and the learned features are mainly used for image-level downstream tasks, e.g.

In the new era of digitalisation, there are emerging challenges relating to the new technology risks while fraud risk increases, adopting new and innovative methods in line with technological progress. In this environment, audit should develop data analytics skills that are beyond traditional risk monitoring and fraud detection tools to meet stakeholders' evolving expectations. Clustering is an unsupervised Machine Learning (ML) algorithm (i.e. an algorithm that learns and improves from experience, without input from users) that looks for patterns in data by dividing it into clusters. These clusters are created such that the points are homogenous within the cluster and heterogenous across clusters. Clustering is commonly used in market segmentation and several areas of marketing analytics as well as in fraud detection.

With the mass construction of Gen III nuclear reactors, it is a popular trend to use deep learning (DL) techniques for fast and effective diagnosis of possible accidents. To overcome the common problems of previous work in diagnosing reactor accidents using deep learning theory, this paper proposes a diagnostic process that ensures robustness to noisy and crippled data and is interpretable. First, a novel Denoising Padded Autoencoder (DPAE) is proposed for representation extraction of monitoring data, with representation extractor still effective on disturbed data with signal-to-noise ratios up to 25.0 and monitoring data missing up to 40.0%. Secondly, a diagnostic framework using DPAE encoder for extraction of representations followed by shallow statistical learning algorithms is proposed, and such stepwise diagnostic approach is tested on disturbed datasets with 41.8% and 80.8% higher classification and regression task evaluation metrics, in comparison with the end-to-end diagnostic approaches. Finally, a hierarchical interpretation algorithm using SHAP and feature ablation is presented to analyze the importance of the input monitoring parameters and validate the effectiveness of the high importance parameters. The outcomes of this study provide a referential method for building robust and interpretable intelligent reactor anomaly diagnosis systems in scenarios with high safety requirements.

Production forecast based on historical data provides essential value for developing hydrocarbon resources. Classic history matching workflow is often computationally intense and geometry-dependent. Analytical data-driven models like decline curve analysis (DCA) and capacitance resistance models (CRM) provide a grid-free solution with a relatively simple model capable of integrating some degree of physics constraints. However, the analytical solution may ignore subsurface geometries and is appropriate only for specific flow regimes and otherwise may violate physics conditions resulting in degraded model prediction accuracy. Machine learning-based predictive model for time series provides non-parametric, assumption-free solutions for production forecasting, but are prone to model overfit due to training data sparsity; therefore may be accurate over short prediction time intervals. We propose a grid-free, physics-informed graph neural network (PI-GNN) for production forecasting. A customized graph convolution layer aggregates neighborhood information from historical data and has the flexibility to integrate domain expertise into the data-driven model. The proposed method relaxes the dependence on close-form solutions like CRM and honors the given physics-based constraints. Our proposed method is robust, with improved performance and model interpretability relative to the conventional CRM and GNN baseline without physics constraints.

We introduce a simulation-based, amortised Bayesian inference scheme to infer the parameters of random walks. Our approach learns the posterior distribution of the walks' parameters with a likelihood-free method. In the first step a graph neural network is trained on simulated data to learn optimized low-dimensional summary statistics of the random walk. In the second step an invertible neural network generates the posterior distribution of the parameters from the learnt summary statistics using variational inference. We apply our method to infer the parameters of the fractional Brownian motion model from single trajectories. The computational complexity of the amortized inference procedure scales linearly with trajectory length, and its precision scales similarly to the Cram{\'e}r-Rao bound over a wide range of lengths. The approach is robust to positional noise, and generalizes well to trajectories longer than those seen during training. Finally, we adapt this scheme to show that a finite decorrelation time in the environment can furthermore be inferred from individual trajectories.

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series is now widely used to improve accuracy through the integration of information gleaned from different sources, thereby mitigating the risk of identifying a single "best" forecast. Combination schemes have evolved from simple combination methods without estimation, to sophisticated methods involving time-varying weights, nonlinear combinations, correlations among components, and cross-learning. They include combining point forecasts and combining probabilistic forecasts. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the extensive literature on forecast combinations, together with reference to available open-source software implementations. We discuss the potential and limitations of various methods and highlight how these ideas have developed over time. Some important issues concerning the utility of forecast combinations are also surveyed. Finally, we conclude with current research gaps and potential insights for future research.

What is the ideal regression (if any) for estimating average causal effects? We study this question in the setting of discrete covariates, deriving expressions for the finite-sample variance of various stratification estimators. This approach clarifies the fundamental statistical phenomena underlying many widely-cited results. Our exposition combines insights from three distinct methodological traditions for studying causal effect estimation: potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models with additive errors.

This paper introduces an algorithm for the detection of change-points and the identification of the corresponding subsequences in transient multivariate time-series data (MTSD). The analysis of such data has become more and more important due to the increase of availability in many industrial fields. Labeling, sorting or filtering highly transient measurement data for training condition based maintenance (CbM) models is cumbersome and error-prone. For some applications it can be sufficient to filter measurements by simple thresholds or finding change-points based on changes in mean value and variation. But a robust diagnosis of a component within a component group for example, which has a complex non-linear correlation between multiple sensor values, a simple approach would not be feasible. No meaningful and coherent measurement data which could be used for training a CbM model would emerge. Therefore, we introduce an algorithm which uses a recurrent neural network (RNN) based Autoencoder (AE) which is iteratively trained on incoming data. The scoring function uses the reconstruction error and latent space information. A model of the identified subsequence is saved and used for recognition of repeating subsequences as well as fast offline clustering. For evaluation, we propose a new similarity measure based on the curvature for a more intuitive time-series subsequence clustering metric. A comparison with seven other state-of-the-art algorithms and eight datasets shows the capability and the increased performance of our algorithm to cluster MTSD online and offline in conjunction with mechatronic systems.