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 Statistical Learning


Formulating Robustness Against Unforeseen Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing defenses against adversarial examples such as adversarial training typically assume that the adversary will conform to a specific or known threat model, such as $\ell_p$ perturbations within a fixed budget. In this paper, we focus on the scenario where there is a mismatch in the threat model assumed by the defense during training, and the actual capabilities of the adversary at test time. We ask the question: if the learner trains against a specific "source" threat model, when can we expect robustness to generalize to a stronger unknown "target" threat model during test-time? Our key contribution is to formally define the problem of learning and generalization with an unforeseen adversary, which helps us reason about the increase in adversarial risk from the conventional perspective of a known adversary. Applying our framework, we derive a generalization bound which relates the generalization gap between source and target threat models to variation of the feature extractor, which measures the expected maximum difference between extracted features across a given threat model. Based on our generalization bound, we propose variation regularization (VR) which reduces variation of the feature extractor across the source threat model during training. We empirically demonstrate that using VR can lead to improved generalization to unforeseen attacks during test-time, and combining VR with perceptual adversarial training (Laidlaw et al., 2021) achieves state-of-the-art robustness on unforeseen attacks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/inspire-group/variation-regularization.


A New Index for Clustering Evaluation Based on Density Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A new index for internal evaluation of clustering is introduced. The index is defined as a mixture of two sub-indices. The first sub-index $ I_a $ is called the Ambiguous Index; the second sub-index $ I_s $ is called the Similarity Index. Calculation of the two sub-indices is based on density estimation to each cluster of a partition of the data. An experiment is conducted to test the performance of the new index, and compared with six other internal clustering evaluation indices -- Calinski-Harabasz index, Silhouette coefficient, Davies-Bouldin index, CDbw, DBCV, and VIASCKDE, on a set of 145 datasets. The result shows the new index significantly improves other internal clustering evaluation indices.


Top 20 Machine Learning Algorithms, Explained in Less Than 10 Seconds Each

#artificialintelligence

Machine learning is a method of data analysis that automates processes for model development. It is a branch of artificial intelligence based on the idea that systems can learn from data, identify patterns, and make decisions with minimal user intervention [2]. Machine learning algorithms are used in a wide variety of applications, including email filtering, detecting fraudulent credit card transactions, stock trading, computer vision, speech recognition, and more. There are three main types of machine learning: supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. Supervised learning is where the data is labeled and the algorithms learn to predict the labels. For example, in a dataset of images of cats and dogs, the labels would be "cat" and "dog."


Guide to Gradient Descent in Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Gradient Descent is an iterative optimization algorithm in machine learning that aims to minimize the cost function by finding the global minimum. In this way, it helps machine learning models make more accurate predictions. It keeps updating the model parameters until the cost function is close to, or equal to, zero, in order to achieve the least possible error. The cost function is used to measure the difference between the actual value and the predicted value (also known as the loss). It represents the error and tells us how far the predicted value is from the actual value.


A hybrid inference system for improved curvature estimation in the level-set method using machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel hybrid strategy based on machine learning to improve curvature estimation in the level-set method. The proposed inference system couples enhanced neural networks with standard numerical schemes to compute curvature more accurately. The core of our hybrid framework is a switching mechanism that relies on well established numerical techniques to gauge curvature. If the curvature magnitude is larger than a resolution-dependent threshold, it uses a neural network to yield a better approximation. Our networks are multilayer perceptrons fitted to synthetic data sets composed of sinusoidal- and circular-interface samples at various configurations. To reduce data set size and training complexity, we leverage the problem's characteristic symmetry and build our models on just half of the curvature spectrum. These savings lead to a powerful inference system able to outperform any of its numerical or neural component alone. Experiments with stationary, smooth interfaces show that our hybrid solver is notably superior to conventional numerical methods in coarse grids and along steep interface regions. Compared to prior research, we have observed outstanding gains in precision after training the regression model with data pairs from more than a single interface type and transforming data with specialized input preprocessing. In particular, our findings confirm that machine learning is a promising venue for reducing or removing mass loss in the level-set method.


Error-correcting neural networks for semi-Lagrangian advection in the level-set method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a machine learning framework that blends image super-resolution technologies with passive, scalar transport in the level-set method. Here, we investigate whether we can compute on-the-fly, data-driven corrections to minimize numerical viscosity in the coarse-mesh evolution of an interface. The proposed system's starting point is the semi-Lagrangian formulation. And, to reduce numerical dissipation, we introduce an error-quantifying multilayer perceptron. The role of this neural network is to improve the numerically estimated surface trajectory. To do so, it processes localized level-set, velocity, and positional data in a single time frame for select vertices near the moving front. Our main contribution is thus a novel machine-learning-augmented transport algorithm that operates alongside selective redistancing and alternates with conventional advection to keep the adjusted interface trajectory smooth. Consequently, our procedure is more efficient than full-scan convolutional-based applications because it concentrates computational effort only around the free boundary. Also, we show through various tests that our strategy is effective at counteracting both numerical diffusion and mass loss. In simple advection problems, for example, our method can achieve the same precision as the baseline scheme at twice the resolution but at a fraction of the cost. Similarly, our hybrid technique can produce feasible solidification fronts for crystallization processes. On the other hand, tangential shear flows and highly deforming simulations can precipitate bias artifacts and inference deterioration. Likewise, stringent design velocity constraints can limit our solver's application to problems involving rapid interface changes. In the latter cases, we have identified several opportunities to enhance robustness without forgoing our approach's basic concept.


Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Future Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we introduce Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Forecasting (MMMF), a novel and general self-supervised learning framework for time series forecasting with known future information. In many real-world forecasting scenarios, some future information is known, e.g., the weather information when making a short-to-mid-term electricity demand forecast, or the oil price forecasts when making an airplane departure forecast. Existing machine learning forecasting frameworks can be categorized into (1) sample-based approaches where each forecast is made independently, and (2) time series regression approaches where the future information is not fully incorporated. To overcome the limitations of existing approaches, we propose MMMF, a framework to train any neural network model capable of generating a sequence of outputs, that combines both the temporal information from the past and the known information about the future to make better predictions. Experiments are performed on two real-world datasets for (1) mid-term electricity demand forecasting, and (2) two-month ahead flight departures forecasting. They show that the proposed MMMF framework outperforms not only sample-based methods but also existing time series forecasting models with the exact same base models. Furthermore, once a neural network model is trained with MMMF, its inference speed is similar to that of the same model trained with traditional regression formulations, thus making MMMF a better alternative to existing regression-trained time series forecasting models if there is some available future information.


CEFER: A Four Facets Framework based on Context and Emotion embedded features for Implicit and Explicit Emotion Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

People's conduct and reactions are driven by their emotions. Online social media is becoming a great instrument for expressing emotions in written form. Paying attention to the context and the entire sentence help us to detect emotion from texts. However, this perspective inhibits us from noticing some emotional words or phrases in the text, particularly when the words express an emotion implicitly rather than explicitly. On the other hand, focusing only on the words and ignoring the context results in a distorted understanding of the sentence meaning and feeling. In this paper, we propose a framework that analyses text at both the sentence and word levels. We name it CEFER (Context and Emotion embedded Framework for Emotion Recognition). Our four approach facets are to extracting data by considering the entire sentence and each individual word simultaneously, as well as implicit and explicit emotions. The knowledge gained from these data not only mitigates the impact of flaws in the preceding approaches but also it strengthens the feature vector. We evaluate several feature spaces using BERT family and design the CEFER based on them. CEFER combines the emotional vector of each word, including explicit and implicit emotions, with the feature vector of each word based on context. CEFER performs better than the BERT family. The experimental results demonstrate that identifying implicit emotions are more challenging than detecting explicit emotions. CEFER, improves the accuracy of implicit emotion recognition. According to the results, CEFER perform 5% better than the BERT family in recognizing explicit emotions and 3% in implicit.


An Interpretable and Efficient Infinite-Order Vector Autoregressive Model for High-Dimensional Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long been hindered by its non-identifiability, computational intractability, and relative difficulty of interpretation. This paper introduces a novel infinite-order VAR model which, with only a little sacrifice of generality, inherits the essential temporal patterns of the VARMA model but avoids all of the above drawbacks. As another attractive feature, the temporal and cross-sectional dependence structures of this model can be interpreted separately, since they are characterized by different sets of parameters. For high-dimensional time series, this separation motivates us to impose sparsity on the parameters determining the cross-sectional dependence. As a result, greater statistical efficiency and interpretability can be achieved, while no loss of temporal information is incurred by the imposed sparsity. We introduce an $\ell_1$-regularized estimator for the proposed model and derive the corresponding nonasymptotic error bounds. An efficient block coordinate descent algorithm and a consistent model order selection method are developed. The merit of the proposed approach is supported by simulation studies and a real-world macroeconomic data analysis.


ArNLI: Arabic Natural Language Inference for Entailment and Contradiction Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural Language Inference (NLI) is a hot topic research in natural language processing, contradiction detection between sentences is a special case of NLI. This is considered a difficult NLP task which has a big influence when added as a component in many NLP applications, such as Question Answering Systems, text Summarization. Arabic Language is one of the most challenging low-resources languages in detecting contradictions due to its rich lexical, semantics ambiguity. We have created a data set of more than 12k sentences and named ArNLI, that will be publicly available. Moreover, we have applied a new model inspired by Stanford contradiction detection proposed solutions on English language. We proposed an approach to detect contradictions between pairs of sentences in Arabic language using contradiction vector combined with language model vector as an input to machine learning model. We analyzed results of different traditional machine learning classifiers and compared their results on our created data set (ArNLI) and on an automatic translation of both PHEME, SICK English data sets. Best results achieved using Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99%, 60%, 75% on PHEME, SICK and ArNLI respectively.