Statistical Learning
Optimizing Data Collection for Machine Learning
Mahmood, Rafid, Lucas, James, Alvarez, Jose M., Fidler, Sanja, Law, Marc T.
Modern deep learning systems require huge data sets to achieve impressive performance, but there is little guidance on how much or what kind of data to collect. Over-collecting data incurs unnecessary present costs, while under-collecting may incur future costs and delay workflows. We propose a new paradigm for modeling the data collection workflow as a formal optimal data collection problem that allows designers to specify performance targets, collection costs, a time horizon, and penalties for failing to meet the targets. Additionally, this formulation generalizes to tasks requiring multiple data sources, such as labeled and unlabeled data used in semi-supervised learning. To solve our problem, we develop Learn-Optimize-Collect (LOC), which minimizes expected future collection costs. Finally, we numerically compare our framework to the conventional baseline of estimating data requirements by extrapolating from neural scaling laws. We significantly reduce the risks of failing to meet desired performance targets on several classification, segmentation, and detection tasks, while maintaining low total collection costs.
Active Learning for Regression with Aggregated Outputs
Due to the privacy protection or the difficulty of data collection, we cannot observe individual outputs for each instance, but we can observe aggregated outputs that are summed over multiple instances in a set in some real-world applications. To reduce the labeling cost for training regression models for such aggregated data, we propose an active learning method that sequentially selects sets to be labeled to improve the predictive performance with fewer labeled sets. For the selection measurement, the proposed method uses the mutual information, which quantifies the reduction of the uncertainty of the model parameters by observing the aggregated output. With Bayesian linear basis functions for modeling outputs given an input, which include approximated Gaussian processes and neural networks, we can efficiently calculate the mutual information in a closed form. With the experiments using various datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better predictive performance with fewer labeled sets than existing methods.
Beyond Transmitting Bits: Context, Semantics, and Task-Oriented Communications
Gunduz, Deniz, Qin, Zhijin, Aguerri, Inaki Estella, Dhillon, Harpreet S., Yang, Zhaohui, Yener, Aylin, Wong, Kai Kit, Chae, Chan-Byoung
Communication systems to date primarily aim at reliably communicating bit sequences. Such an approach provides efficient engineering designs that are agnostic to the meanings of the messages or to the goal that the message exchange aims to achieve. Next generation systems, however, can be potentially enriched by folding message semantics and goals of communication into their design. Further, these systems can be made cognizant of the context in which communication exchange takes place, providing avenues for novel design insights. This tutorial summarizes the efforts to date, starting from its early adaptations, semantic-aware and task-oriented communications, covering the foundations, algorithms and potential implementations. The focus is on approaches that utilize information theory to provide the foundations, as well as the significant role of learning in semantics and task-aware communications.
SMLSOM: The shrinking maximum likelihood self-organizing map
Determining the number of clusters in a dataset is a fundamental issue in data clustering. Many methods have been proposed to solve the problem of selecting the number of clusters, considering it to be a problem with regard to model selection. This paper proposes an efficient algorithm that automatically selects a suitable number of clusters based on a probability distribution model framework. The algorithm includes the following two components. First, a generalization of Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) is introduced. In Kohonen's SOM, clusters are modeled as mean vectors. In the generalized SOM, each cluster is modeled as a probabilistic distribution and constructed by samples classified based on the likelihood. Second, the dynamically updating method of the SOM structure is introduced. In Kohonen's SOM, each cluster is tied to a node of a fixed two-dimensional lattice space and learned using neighborhood relations between nodes based on Euclidean distance. The extended SOM defines a graph with clusters as vertices and neighborhood relations as links and updates the graph structure by cutting weakly-connection and unnecessary vertex deletions. The weakness of a link is measured using the Kullback--Leibler divergence, and the redundancy of a vertex is measured using the minimum description length. Those extensions make it efficient to determine the appropriate number of clusters. Compared with existing methods, the proposed method is computationally efficient and can accurately select the number of clusters.
The Long Tail of Context: Does it Exist and Matter?
Bauman, Konstantin, Vasilev, Alexey, Tuzhilin, Alexander
Context has been an important topic in recommender systems over the past two decades. A standard representational approach to context assumes that contextual variables and their structures are known in an application. Most of the prior CARS papers following representational approach manually selected and considered only a few crucial contextual variables in an application, such as time, location, and company of a person. This prior work demonstrated significant recommendation performance improvements when various CARS-based methods have been deployed in numerous applications. However, some recommender systems applications deal with a much bigger and broader types of contexts, and manually identifying and capturing a few contextual variables is not sufficient in such cases. In this paper, we study such ``context-rich'' applications dealing with a large variety of different types of contexts. We demonstrate that supporting only a few most important contextual variables, although useful, is not sufficient. In our study, we focus on the application that recommends various banking products to commercial customers within the context of dialogues initiated by customer service representatives. In this application, we managed to identify over two hundred types of contextual variables. Sorting those variables by their importance forms the Long Tail of Context (LTC). In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that LTC matters and using all these contextual variables from the Long Tail leads to significant improvements in recommendation performance.
UrbanFly: Uncertainty-Aware Planning for Navigation Amongst High-Rises with Monocular Visual-Inertial SLAM Maps
Harithas, Sudarshan S, Thatavarthy, Ayyappa Swamy, Singh, Gurkirat, Singh, Arun K, Krishna, K Madhava
We present UrbanFly: an uncertainty-aware real-time planning framework for quadrotor navigation in urban high-rise environments. A core aspect of UrbanFly is its ability to robustly plan directly on the sparse point clouds generated by a Monocular Visual Inertial SLAM (VINS) backend. It achieves this by using the sparse point clouds to build an uncertainty-integrated cuboid representation of the environment through a data-driven monocular plane segmentation network. Our chosen world model provides faster distance queries than the more common voxel-grid representation, and UrbanFly leverages this capability in two different ways leading to two trajectory optimizers. The first optimizer uses a gradient-free cross-entropy method to compute trajectories that minimize collision probability and smoothness cost. Our second optimizer is a simplified version of the first and uses a sequential convex programming optimizer initialized based on probabilistic safety estimates on a set of randomly drawn trajectories. Both our trajectory optimizers are made computationally tractable and independent of the nature of underlying uncertainty by embedding the distribution of collision violations in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Empowered by the algorithmic innovation, UrbanFly outperforms competing baselines in metrics such as collision rate, trajectory length, etc., on a high-fidelity AirSim simulator augmented with synthetic and real-world dataset scenes.
Process Modeling, Hidden Markov Models, and Non-negative Tensor Factorization with Model Selection
Skau, Erik, Hollis, Andrew, Eidenbenz, Stephan, Rasmussen, Kim, Alexandrov, Boian
Monitoring of industrial processes is a critical capability in industry and in government to ensure reliability of production cycles, quick emergency response, and national security. Process monitoring allows users to gauge the involvement of an organization in an industrial process or predict the degradation or aging of machine parts in processes taking place at a remote location. Similar to many data science applications, we usually only have access to limited raw data, such as satellite imagery, short video clips, some event logs, and signatures captured by a small set of sensors. To combat data scarcity, we leverage the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) who are familiar with the process. Various process mining techniques have been developed for this type of analysis; typically such approaches combine theoretical process models built based on domain expert insights with ad-hoc integration of available pieces of raw data. Here, we introduce a novel mathematically sound method that integrates theoretical process models (as proposed by SMEs) with interrelated minimal Hidden Markov Models (HMM), built via non-negative tensor factorization and discrete model simulations. Our method consolidates: (a) Theoretical process models development, (b) Discrete model simulations (c) HMM, (d) Joint Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) and Non-negative Tensor Factorization (NTF), and (e) Custom model selection. To demonstrate our methodology and its abilities, we apply it on simple synthetic and real world process models.
FLCert: Provably Secure Federated Learning against Poisoning Attacks
Cao, Xiaoyu, Zhang, Zaixi, Jia, Jinyuan, Gong, Neil Zhenqiang
Due to its distributed nature, federated learning is vulnerable to poisoning attacks, in which malicious clients poison the training process via manipulating their local training data and/or local model updates sent to the cloud server, such that the poisoned global model misclassifies many indiscriminate test inputs or attacker-chosen ones. Existing defenses mainly leverage Byzantine-robust federated learning methods or detect malicious clients. However, these defenses do not have provable security guarantees against poisoning attacks and may be vulnerable to more advanced attacks. In this work, we aim to bridge the gap by proposing FLCert, an ensemble federated learning framework, that is provably secure against poisoning attacks with a bounded number of malicious clients. Our key idea is to divide the clients into groups, learn a global model for each group of clients using any existing federated learning method, and take a majority vote among the global models to classify a test input. Specifically, we consider two methods to group the clients and propose two variants of FLCert correspondingly, i.e., FLCert-P that randomly samples clients in each group, and FLCert-D that divides clients to disjoint groups deterministically. Our extensive experiments on multiple datasets show that the label predicted by our FLCert for a test input is provably unaffected by a bounded number of malicious clients, no matter what poisoning attacks they use.
Movement Analytics: Current Status, Application to Manufacturing, and Future Prospects from an AI Perspective
Baumgartner, Peter, Smith, Daniel, Rana, Mashud, Kapoor, Reena, Tartaglia, Elena, Schutt, Andreas, Rahman, Ashfaqur, Taylor, John, Dunstall, Simon
Data-driven decision making is becoming an integral part of manufacturing companies. Data is collected and commonly used to improve efficiency and produce high quality items for the customers. IoT-based and other forms of object tracking are an emerging tool for collecting movement data of objects/entities (e.g. human workers, moving vehicles, trolleys etc.) over space and time. Movement data can provide valuable insights like process bottlenecks, resource utilization, effective working time etc. that can be used for decision making and improving efficiency. Turning movement data into valuable information for industrial management and decision making requires analysis methods. We refer to this process as movement analytics. The purpose of this document is to review the current state of work for movement analytics both in manufacturing and more broadly. We survey relevant work from both a theoretical perspective and an application perspective. From the theoretical perspective, we put an emphasis on useful methods from two research areas: machine learning, and logic-based knowledge representation. We also review their combinations in view of movement analytics, and we discuss promising areas for future development and application. Furthermore, we touch on constraint optimization. From an application perspective, we review applications of these methods to movement analytics in a general sense and across various industries. We also describe currently available commercial off-the-shelf products for tracking in manufacturing, and we overview main concepts of digital twins and their applications.
A Dynamic Model for Bus Arrival Time Estimation based on Spatial Patterns using Machine Learning
Ashwini, B. P., Sumathi, R., Sudhira, H. S.
The notion of smart cities is being adapted globally to provide a better quality of living. A smart city's smart mobility component focuses on providing smooth and safe commuting for its residents and promotes eco-friendly and sustainable alternatives such as public transit (bus). Among several smart applications, a system that provides up-to-the-minute information like bus arrival, travel duration, schedule, etc., improves the reliability of public transit services. Still, this application needs live information on traffic flow, accidents, events, and the location of the buses. Most cities lack the infrastructure to provide these data. In this context, a bus arrival prediction model is proposed for forecasting the arrival time using limited data sets. The location data of public transit buses and spatial characteristics are used for the study. One of the routes of Tumakuru city service, Tumakuru, India, is selected and divided into two spatial patterns: sections with intersections and sections without intersections. The machine learning model XGBoost is modeled for both spatial patterns individually. A model to dynamically predict bus arrival time is developed using the preceding trip information and the machine learning model to estimate the arrival time at a downstream bus stop. The performance of models is compared based on the R-squared values of the predictions made, and the proposed model established superior results. It is suggested to predict bus arrival in the study area. The proposed model can also be extended to other similar cities with limited traffic-related infrastructure.