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 Statistical Learning


Probabilistic Model Incorporating Auxiliary Covariates to Control FDR

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Controlling False Discovery Rate (FDR) while leveraging the side information of multiple hypothesis testing is an emerging research topic in modern data science. Existing methods rely on the test-level covariates while ignoring metrics about test-level covariates. This strategy may not be optimal for complex large-scale problems, where indirect relations often exist among test-level covariates and auxiliary metrics or covariates. We incorporate auxiliary covariates among test-level covariates in a deep Black-Box framework controlling FDR (named as NeurT-FDR) which boosts statistical power and controls FDR for multiple-hypothesis testing. Our method parametrizes the test-level covariates as a neural network and adjusts the auxiliary covariates through a regression framework, which enables flexible handling of high-dimensional features as well as efficient end-to-end optimization. We show that NeurT-FDR makes substantially more discoveries in three real datasets compared to competitive baselines.


Knowledge Tracing for Complex Problem Solving: Granular Rank-Based Tensor Factorization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Tracing (KT), which aims to model student knowledge level and predict their performance, is one of the most important applications of user modeling. Modern KT approaches model and maintain an up-to-date state of student knowledge over a set of course concepts according to students' historical performance in attempting the problems. However, KT approaches were designed to model knowledge by observing relatively small problem-solving steps in Intelligent Tutoring Systems. While these approaches were applied successfully to model student knowledge by observing student solutions for simple problems, they do not perform well for modeling complex problem solving in students.M ost importantly, current models assume that all problem attempts are equally valuable in quantifying current student knowledge.However, for complex problems that involve many concepts at the same time, this assumption is deficient. In this paper, we argue that not all attempts are equivalently important in discovering students' knowledge state, and some attempts can be summarized together to better represent student performance. We propose a novel student knowledge tracing approach, Granular RAnk based TEnsor factorization (GRATE), that dynamically selects student attempts that can be aggregated while predicting students' performance in problems and discovering the concepts presented in them. Our experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the improved performance of GRATE, compared to the state-of-the-art baselines, in the task of student performance prediction. Our further analysis shows that attempt aggregation eliminates the unnecessary fluctuations from students' discovered knowledge states and helps in discovering complex latent concepts in the problems.


FAST: Improving Controllability for Text Generation with Feedback Aware Self-Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Controllable text generation systems often leverage control codes to direct various properties of the output like style and length. Inspired by recent work on causal inference for NLP, this paper reveals a previously overlooked flaw in these control code-based conditional text generation algorithms. Spurious correlations in the training data can lead models to incorrectly rely on parts of the input other than the control code for attribute selection, significantly undermining downstream generation quality and controllability. We demonstrate the severity of this issue with a series of case studies and then propose two simple techniques to reduce these correlations in training sets. The first technique is based on resampling the data according to an example's propensity towards each linguistic attribute (IPS). The second produces multiple counterfactual versions of each example and then uses an additional feedback mechanism to remove noisy examples (feedback aware self-training, FAST). We evaluate on 3 tasks -- news headline, meta review, and search ads generation -- and demonstrate that FAST can significantly improve the controllability and language quality of generated outputs when compared to state-of-the-art controllable text generation approaches.


Uncovering the Structural Fairness in Graph Contrastive Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent studies show that graph convolutional network (GCN) often performs worse for low-degree nodes, exhibiting the so-called structural unfairness for graphs with long-tailed degree distributions prevalent in the real world. Graph contrastive learning (GCL), which marries the power of GCN and contrastive learning, has emerged as a promising self-supervised approach for learning node representations. How does GCL behave in terms of structural fairness? Surprisingly, we find that representations obtained by GCL methods are already fairer to degree bias than those learned by GCN. We theoretically show that this fairness stems from intra-community concentration and inter-community scatter properties of GCL, resulting in a much clear community structure to drive low-degree nodes away from the community boundary. Based on our theoretical analysis, we further devise a novel graph augmentation method, called GRAph contrastive learning for DEgree bias (GRADE), which applies different strategies to low- and high-degree nodes. Extensive experiments on various benchmarks and evaluation protocols validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.


Digital Asset Valuation: A Study on Domain Names, Email Addresses, and NFTs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing works on valuing digital assets on the Internet typically focus on a single asset class. To promote the development of automated valuation techniques, preferably those that are generally applicable to multiple asset classes, we construct DASH, the first Digital Asset Sales History dataset that features multiple digital asset classes spanning from classical to blockchain-based ones. Consisting of 280K transactions of domain names (DASH_DN), email addresses (DASH_EA), and non-fungible token (NFT)-based identifiers (DASH_NFT), such as Ethereum Name Service names, DASH advances the field in several aspects: the subsets DASH_DN, DASH_EA, and DASH_NFT are the largest freely accessible domain name transaction dataset, the only publicly available email address transaction dataset, and the first NFT transaction dataset that focuses on identifiers, respectively. We build strong conventional feature-based models as the baselines for DASH. We next explore deep learning models based on fine-tuning pre-trained language models, which have not yet been explored for digital asset valuation in the previous literature. We find that the vanilla fine-tuned model already performs reasonably well, outperforming all but the best-performing baselines. We further propose improvements to make the model more aware of the time sensitivity of transactions and the popularity of assets. Experimental results show that our improved model consistently outperforms all the other models across all asset classes on DASH.


Uncertainty Estimation for Multi-view Data: The Power of Seeing the Whole Picture

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty estimation is essential to make neural networks trustworthy in real-world applications. Extensive research efforts have been made to quantify and reduce predictive uncertainty. However, most existing works are designed for unimodal data, whereas multi-view uncertainty estimation has not been sufficiently investigated. Therefore, we propose a new multi-view classification framework for better uncertainty estimation and out-of-domain sample detection, where we associate each view with an uncertainty-aware classifier and combine the predictions of all the views in a principled way. The experimental results with real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach is an accurate, reliable, and well-calibrated classifier, which predominantly outperforms the multi-view baselines tested in terms of expected calibration error, robustness to noise, and accuracy for the in-domain sample classification and the out-of-domain sample detection tasks.


Temporal Spatial Decomposition and Fusion Network for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Feature engineering is required to obtain better results for time series forecasting, and decomposition is a crucial one. One decomposition approach often cannot be used for numerous forecasting tasks since the standard time series decomposition lacks flexibility and robustness. Traditional feature selection relies heavily on preexisting domain knowledge, has no generic methodology, and requires a lot of labor. However, most time series prediction models based on deep learning typically suffer from interpretability issue, so the "black box" results lead to a lack of confidence. To deal with the above issues forms the motivation of the thesis. In the paper we propose TSDFNet as a neural network with self-decomposition mechanism and an attentive feature fusion mechanism, It abandons feature engineering as a preprocessing convention and creatively integrates it as an internal module with the deep model. The self-decomposition mechanism empowers TSDFNet with extensible and adaptive decomposition capabilities for any time series, users can choose their own basis functions to decompose the sequence into temporal and generalized spatial dimensions. Attentive feature fusion mechanism has the ability to capture the importance of external variables and the causality with target variables. It can automatically suppress the unimportant features while enhancing the effective ones, so that users do not have to struggle with feature selection. Moreover, TSDFNet is easy to look into the "black box" of the deep neural network by feature visualization and analyze the prediction results. We demonstrate performance improvements over existing widely accepted models on more than a dozen datasets, and three experiments showcase the interpretability of TSDFNet.


Scaling up Stochastic Gradient Descent for Non-convex Optimisation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a widely adopted iterative method for optimizing differentiable objective functions. In this paper, we propose and discuss a novel approach to scale up SGD in applications involving non-convex functions and large datasets. We address the bottleneck problem arising when using both shared and distributed memory. Typically, the former is bounded by limited computation resources and bandwidth whereas the latter suffers from communication overheads. We propose a unified distributed and parallel implementation of SGD (named DPSGD) that relies on both asynchronous distribution and lock-free parallelism. By combining two strategies into a unified framework, DPSGD is able to strike a better trade-off between local computation and communication. The convergence properties of DPSGD are studied for non-convex problems such as those arising in statistical modelling and machine learning. Our theoretical analysis shows that DPSGD leads to speed-up with respect to the number of cores and number of workers while guaranteeing an asymptotic convergence rate of $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ given that the number of cores is bounded by $T^{1/4}$ and the number of workers is bounded by $T^{1/2}$ where $T$ is the number of iterations. The potential gains that can be achieved by DPSGD are demonstrated empirically on a stochastic variational inference problem (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) and on a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) problem (advantage actor critic - A2C) resulting in two algorithms: DPSVI and HSA2C. Empirical results validate our theoretical findings. Comparative studies are conducted to show the performance of the proposed DPSGD against the state-of-the-art DRL algorithms.


Unsupervised Domain Adaptation for COVID-19 Information Service with Contrastive Adversarial Domain Mixup

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the real-world application of COVID-19 misinformation detection, a fundamental challenge is the lack of the labeled COVID data to enable supervised end-to-end training of the models, especially at the early stage of the pandemic. To address this challenge, we propose an unsupervised domain adaptation framework using contrastive learning and adversarial domain mixup to transfer the knowledge from an existing source data domain to the target COVID-19 data domain. In particular, to bridge the gap between the source domain and the target domain, our method reduces a radial basis function (RBF) based discrepancy between these two domains. Moreover, we leverage the power of domain adversarial examples to establish an intermediate domain mixup, where the latent representations of the input text from both domains could be mixed during the training process. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets suggest that our method can effectively adapt misinformation detection systems to the unseen COVID-19 target domain with significant improvements compared to the state-of-the-art baselines.


Who's Afraid of Adversarial Transferability?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial transferability, namely the ability of adversarial perturbations to simultaneously fool multiple learning models, has long been the "big bad wolf" of adversarial machine learning. Successful transferability-based attacks requiring no prior knowledge of the attacked model's parameters or training data have been demonstrated numerous times in the past, implying that machine learning models pose an inherent security threat to real-life systems. However, all of the research performed in this area regarded transferability as a probabilistic property and attempted to estimate the percentage of adversarial examples that are likely to mislead a target model given some predefined evaluation set. As a result, those studies ignored the fact that real-life adversaries are often highly sensitive to the cost of a failed attack. We argue that overlooking this sensitivity has led to an exaggerated perception of the transferability threat, when in fact real-life transferability-based attacks are quite unlikely. By combining theoretical reasoning with a series of empirical results, we show that it is practically impossible to predict whether a given adversarial example is transferable to a specific target model in a black-box setting, hence questioning the validity of adversarial transferability as a real-life attack tool for adversaries that are sensitive to the cost of a failed attack.