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 Statistical Learning


Assaying Out-Of-Distribution Generalization in Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Since out-of-distribution generalization is a generally ill-posed problem, various proxy targets (e.g., calibration, adversarial robustness, algorithmic corruptions, invariance across shifts) were studied across different research programs resulting in different recommendations. While sharing the same aspirational goal, these approaches have never been tested under the same experimental conditions on real data. In this paper, we take a unified view of previous work, highlighting message discrepancies that we address empirically, and providing recommendations on how to measure the robustness of a model and how to improve it. To this end, we collect 172 publicly available dataset pairs for training and out-of-distribution evaluation of accuracy, calibration error, adversarial attacks, environment invariance, and synthetic corruptions. We fine-tune over 31k networks, from nine different architectures in the many- and few-shot setting. Our findings confirm that in- and out-of-distribution accuracies tend to increase jointly, but show that their relation is largely dataset-dependent, and in general more nuanced and more complex than posited by previous, smaller scale studies.


Inference and Learning for Generative Capsule Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Capsule networks (see e.g. Hinton et al., 2018) aim to encode knowledge of and reason about the relationship between an object and its parts. In this paper we specify a generative model for such data, and derive a variational algorithm for inferring the transformation of each model object in a scene, and the assignments of observed parts to the objects. We derive a learning algorithm for the object models, based on variational expectation maximization (Jordan et al., 1999). We also study an alternative inference algorithm based on the RANSAC method of Fischler and Bolles (1981). We apply these inference methods to (i) data generated from multiple geometric objects like squares and triangles ("constellations"), and (ii) data from a parts-based model of faces. Recent work by Kosiorek et al. (2019) has used amortized inference via stacked capsule autoencoders (SCAEs) to tackle this problem -- our results show that we significantly outperform them where we can make comparisons (on the constellations data).


PSO-PINN: Physics-Informed Neural Networks Trained with Particle Swarm Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) have recently emerged as a promising application of deep learning in a wide range of engineering and scientific problems based on partial differential equation (PDE) models. However, evidence shows that PINN training by gradient descent displays pathologies that often prevent convergence when solving PDEs with irregular solutions. In this paper, we propose the use of a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to train PINNs. The resulting PSO-PINN algorithm not only mitigates the undesired behaviors of PINNs trained with standard gradient descent but also presents an ensemble approach to PINN that affords the possibility of robust predictions with quantified uncertainty. We also propose PSO-BP-CD (PSO with Back-Propagation and Coefficient Decay), a hybrid PSO variant that combines swarm optimization with gradient descent, putting more weight on the latter as training progresses and the swarm zeros in on a good local optimum. Comprehensive experimental results show that PSO-PINN with the proposed PSO-BP-CD algorithm outperforms PINN ensembles trained with other PSO variants or with pure gradient descent.


On Representations of Mean-Field Variational Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The mean field variational inference (MFVI) formulation restricts the general Bayesian inference problem to the subspace of product measures. We present a framework to analyse MFVI algorithms, which is inspired by a similar development for general variational Bayesian formulations. Our approach enables the MFVI problem to be represented in three different manners: a gradient flow on Wasserstein space, a system of Fokker-Planck-like equations and a diffusion process. Rigorous guarantees are established to show that a time-discretized implementation of the coordinate ascent variational inference algorithm in the product Wasserstein space of measures yields a gradient flow in the limit. A similar result is obtained for their associated densities, with the limit being given by a quasi-linear partial differential equation. A popular class of practical algorithms falls in this framework, which provides tools to establish convergence. We hope this framework could be used to guarantee convergence of algorithms in a variety of approaches, old and new, to solve variational inference problems.


Improving aircraft performance using machine learning: a review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate change and increasing resource scarcity are challenges that Europe needs to face in the coming decades. All this has a direct impact on air transport, which is struggling to maintain its performance and competitiveness while ensuring a development focused on sustainable mobility. Research and innovation are essential to maintain the capabilities of the aviation industry, driven by the rise of new markets and new competitors as a result of globalization. A new longterm vision for the aeronautics sector is essential to ensure its successful advancement. In this line, new requirements for the future aviation industry have been defined by the ACARE Flightpath 2050, a Group of Recognized Personalities in the aeronautic sector, including stakeholders from the aeronautics industry, air traffic management, airports, airlines, energy providers and the research community. Aeronautics and air transport comprises both: air vehicle and system technology.


Vertical Federated Linear Contextual Bandits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate a novel problem of building contextual bandits in the vertical federated setting, i.e., contextual information is vertically distributed over different departments. This problem remains largely unexplored in the research community. To this end, we carefully design a customized encryption scheme named orthogonal matrix-based mask mechanism(O3M) for encrypting local contextual information while avoiding expensive conventional cryptographic techniques. We further apply the mechanism to two commonly-used bandit algorithms, LinUCB and LinTS, and instantiate two practical protocols for online recommendation under the vertical federated setting. The proposed protocols can perfectly recover the service quality of centralized bandit algorithms while achieving a satisfactory runtime efficiency, which is theoretically proved and analyzed in this paper. By conducting extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show the superiority of the proposed method in terms of privacy protection and recommendation performance.


Improving the Sample Efficiency of Prompt Tuning with Domain Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prompt tuning, or the conditioning of a frozen pretrained language model (PLM) with soft prompts learned from data, has demonstrated impressive performance on a wide range of NLP tasks. However, prompt tuning requires a large training dataset to be effective and is outperformed by finetuning the entire PLM in data-scarce regimes. Previous work (Gu et al., 2022, Vu et al., 2022) proposed to transfer soft prompts pretrained on the source domain to the target domain. In this paper, we explore domain adaptation for prompt tuning, a problem setting where unlabeled data from the target domain are available during pretraining. We propose bOosting Prompt TunIng with doMain Adaptation (OPTIMA), which regularizes the decision boundary to be smooth around regions where source and target data distributions are similar. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OPTIMA significantly enhances the transferability and sample-efficiency of prompt tuning compared to strong baselines. Moreover, in few-shot settings, OPTIMA exceeds full-model tuning by a large margin.


Tighter PAC-Bayes Generalisation Bounds by Leveraging Example Difficulty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a modified version of the excess risk, which can be used to obtain tighter, fast-rate PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds. This modified excess risk leverages information about the relative hardness of data examples to reduce the variance of its empirical counterpart, tightening the bound. We combine this with a new bound for $[-1, 1]$-valued (and potentially non-independent) signed losses, which is more favourable when they empirically have low variance around $0$. The primary new technical tool is a novel result for sequences of interdependent random vectors which may be of independent interest. We empirically evaluate these new bounds on a number of real-world datasets.


GEM-2: Next Generation Molecular Property Prediction Network by Modeling Full-range Many-body Interactions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Molecular property prediction is a fundamental task in the drug and material industries. Physically, the properties of a molecule are determined by its own electronic structure, which is a quantum many-body system and can be exactly described by the Schr"odinger equation. Full-range many-body interactions between electrons have been proven effective in obtaining an accurate solution of the Schr"odinger equation by classical computational chemistry methods, although modeling such interactions consumes an expensive computational cost. Meanwhile, deep learning methods have also demonstrated their competence in molecular property prediction tasks. Inspired by the classical computational chemistry methods, we design a novel method, namely GEM-2, which comprehensively considers full-range many-body interactions in molecules. Multiple tracks are utilized to model the full-range interactions between the many-bodies with different orders, and a novel axial attention mechanism is designed to approximate the full-range interaction modeling with much lower computational cost. Extensive experiments demonstrate the overwhelming superiority of GEM-2 over multiple baseline methods in quantum chemistry and drug discovery tasks. The ablation studies also verify the effectiveness of the full-range many-body interactions.


Mode Reduction for Markov Jump Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Switched systems are capable of modeling processes with underlying dynamics that may change abruptly over time. To achieve accurate modeling in practice, one may need a large number of modes, but this may in turn increase the model complexity drastically. Existing work on reducing system complexity mainly considers state space reduction, whereas reducing the number of modes is less studied. In this work, we consider Markov jump linear systems (MJSs), a special class of switched systems where the active mode switches according to a Markov chain, and several issues associated with its mode complexity. Specifically, inspired by clustering techniques from unsupervised learning, we are able to construct a reduced MJS with fewer modes that approximates the original MJS well under various metrics. Furthermore, both theoretically and empirically, we show how one can use the reduced MJS to analyze stability and design controllers with significant reduction in computational cost while achieving guaranteed accuracy.