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 Statistical Learning


Evaluating Distribution System Reliability with Hyperstructures Graph Convolutional Nets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nowadays, it is broadly recognized in the power system community that to meet the ever expanding energy sector's needs, it is no longer possible to rely solely on physics-based models and that reliable, timely and sustainable operation of energy systems is impossible without systematic integration of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Nevertheless, the adoption of AI in power systems is still limited, while integration of AI particularly into distribution grid investment planning is still an uncharted territory. We make the first step forward to bridge this gap by showing how graph convolutional networks coupled with the hyperstructures representation learning framework can be employed for accurate, reliable, and computationally efficient distribution grid planning with resilience objectives. We further propose a Hyperstructures Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Hyper-GCNNs) to capture hidden higher order representations of distribution networks with attention mechanism. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed Hyper-GCNNs approach yields substantial gains in computational efficiency compared to the prevailing methodology in distribution grid planning and also noticeably outperforms seven state-of-the-art models from deep learning (DL) community.


Learning Stable Graph Neural Networks via Spectral Regularization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stability of graph neural networks (GNNs) characterizes how GNNs react to graph perturbations and provides guarantees for architecture performance in noisy scenarios. This paper develops a self-regularized graph neural network (SR-GNN) solution that improves the architecture stability by regularizing the filter frequency responses in the graph spectral domain. The SR-GNN considers not only the graph signal as input but also the eigenvectors of the underlying graph, where the signal is processed to generate task-relevant features and the eigenvectors to characterize the frequency responses at each layer. We train the SR-GNN by minimizing the cost function and regularizing the maximal frequency response close to one. The former improves the architecture performance, while the latter tightens the perturbation stability and alleviates the information loss through multi-layer propagation. We further show the SR-GNN preserves the permutation equivariance, which allows to explore the internal symmetries of graph signals and to exhibit transference on similar graph structures. Numerical results with source localization and movie recommendation corroborate our findings and show the SR-GNN yields a comparable performance with the vanilla GNN on the unperturbed graph but improves substantially the stability.


PMR: Prototypical Modal Rebalance for Multimodal Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal learning (MML) aims to jointly exploit the common priors of different modalities to compensate for their inherent limitations. However, existing MML methods often optimize a uniform objective for different modalities, leading to the notorious "modality imbalance" problem and counterproductive MML performance. To address the problem, some existing methods modulate the learning pace based on the fused modality, which is dominated by the better modality and eventually results in a limited improvement on the worse modal. To better exploit the features of multimodal, we propose Prototypical Modality Rebalance (PMR) to perform stimulation on the particular slow-learning modality without interference from other modalities. Specifically, we introduce the prototypes that represent general features for each class, to build the non-parametric classifiers for uni-modal performance evaluation. Then, we try to accelerate the slow-learning modality by enhancing its clustering toward prototypes. Furthermore, to alleviate the suppression from the dominant modality, we introduce a prototype-based entropy regularization term during the early training stage to prevent premature convergence. Besides, our method only relies on the representations of each modality and without restrictions from model structures and fusion methods, making it with great application potential for various scenarios.


Learning predictive checklists from continuous medical data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Checklists, while being only recently introduced in the medical domain, have become highly popular in daily clinical practice due to their combined effectiveness and great interpretability. Checklists are usually designed by expert clinicians that manually collect and analyze available evidence. However, the increasing quantity of available medical data is calling for a partially automated checklist design. Recent works have taken a step in that direction by learning predictive checklists from categorical data. In this work, we propose to extend this approach to accomodate learning checklists from continuous medical data using mixed-integer programming approach. We show that this extension outperforms a range of explainable machine learning baselines on the prediction of sepsis from intensive care clinical trajectories.


Conversion-Based Dynamic-Creative-Optimization in Native Advertising

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Yahoo Gemini native advertising marketplace serves billions of impressions daily, to hundreds millions of unique users, and reaches a yearly revenue of many hundreds of millions USDs. Powering Gemini native models for predicting advertise (ad) event probabilities, such as conversions and clicks, is OFFSET - a feature enhanced collaborative-filtering (CF) based event prediction algorithm. The predicted probabilities are then used in Gemini native auctions to determine which ads to present for every serving event (impression). Dynamic creative optimization (DCO) is a recent Gemini native product that was launched two years ago and is increasingly gaining more attention from advertisers. The DCO product enables advertisers to issue several assets per each native ad attribute, creating multiple combinations for each DCO ad. Since different combinations may appeal to different crowds, it may be beneficial to present certain combinations more frequently than others to maximize revenue while keeping advertisers and users satisfied. The initial DCO offer was to optimize click-through rates (CTR), however as the marketplace shifts more towards conversion based campaigns, advertisers also ask for a {conversion based solution. To accommodate this request, we present a post-auction solution, where DCO ads combinations are favored according to their predicted conversion rate (CVR). The predictions are provided by an auxiliary OFFSET based combination CVR prediction model, and used to generate the combination distributions for DCO ad rendering during serving time. An online evaluation of this explore-exploit solution, via online bucket A/B testing, serving Gemini native DCO traffic, showed a 53.5% CVR lift, when compared to a control bucket serving all combinations uniformly at random.


Build generally reusable agent-environment interaction models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper tackles the problem of how to pre-train a model and make it generally reusable backbones for downstream task learning. In pre-training, we propose a method that builds an agent-environment interaction model by learning domain invariant successor features from the agent's vast experiences covering various tasks, then discretize them into behavior prototypes which result in an embodied set structure. To make the model generally reusable for downstream task learning, we propose (1) embodied feature projection that retains previous knowledge by projecting the new task's observation-action pair to the embodied set structure and (2) projected Bellman updates which add learning plasticity for the new task setting. We provide preliminary results that show downstream task learning based on a pre-trained embodied set structure can handle unseen changes in task objectives, environmental dynamics and sensor modalities.


Online Correlation Clustering for Dynamic Complete Signed Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the correlation clustering problem for complete signed graphs, the input is a complete signed graph with edges weighted as $+1$ (denote recommendation to put this pair in the same cluster) or $-1$ (recommending to put this pair of vertices in separate clusters) and the target is to cluster the set of vertices such that the number of disagreements with these recommendations is minimized. In this paper, we consider the problem of correlation clustering for dynamic complete signed graphs where (1) a vertex can be added or deleted, and (2) the sign of an edge can be flipped. In the proposed online scheme, the offline approximation algorithm in [CALM+21] for correlation clustering is used. Up to the author's knowledge, this is the first online algorithm for dynamic graphs which allows a full set of graph editing operations. The proposed approach is rigorously analyzed and compared with a baseline method, which runs the original offline algorithm on each time step. Our results show that the dynamic operations have local effects on the neighboring vertices and we employ this locality to reduce the dependency of the running time in the Baseline to the summation of the degree of all vertices in $G_t$, the graph after applying the graph edit operation at time step $t$, to the summation of the degree of the changing vertices (e.g. two endpoints of an edge) and the number of clusters in the previous time step. Moreover, the required working memory is reduced to the square of the summation of the degree of the modified edge endpoints rather than the total number of vertices in the graph.


HigeNet: A Highly Efficient Modeling for Long Sequence Time Series Prediction in AIOps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern IT system operation demands the integration of system software and hardware metrics. As a result, it generates a massive amount of data, which can be potentially used to make data-driven operational decisions. In the basic form, the decision model needs to monitor a large set of machine data, such as CPU utilization, allocated memory, disk and network latency, and predicts the system metrics to prevent performance degradation. Nevertheless, building an effective prediction model in this scenario is rather challenging as the model has to accurately capture the long-range coupling dependency in the Multivariate Time-Series (MTS). Moreover, this model needs to have low computational complexity and can scale efficiently to the dimension of data available. In this paper, we propose a highly efficient model named HigeNet to predict the long-time sequence time series. We have deployed the HigeNet on production in the D-matrix platform. We also provide offline evaluations on several publicly available datasets as well as one online dataset to demonstrate the model's efficacy. The extensive experiments show that training time, resource usage and accuracy of the model are found to be significantly better than five state-of-the-art competing models.


Dealing with missing data using attention and latent space regularization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most practical data science problems encounter missing data. A wide variety of solutions exist, each with strengths and weaknesses that depend upon the missingness-generating process. Here we develop a theoretical framework for training and inference using only observed variables enabling modeling of incomplete datasets without imputation. Using an information and measure-theoretic argument we construct models with latent space representations that regularize against the potential bias introduced by missing data. The theoretical properties of this approach are demonstrated empirically using a synthetic dataset. The performance of this approach is tested on 11 benchmarking datasets with missingness and 18 datasets corrupted across three missingness patterns with comparison against a state-of-the-art model and industry-standard imputation. We show that our proposed method overcomes the weaknesses of imputation methods and outperforms the current state-of-the-art.


Designing Efficient Pair-Trading Strategies Using Cointegration for the Indian Stock Market

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A pair-trading strategy is an approach that utilizes the fluctuations between prices of a pair of stocks in a short-term time frame, while in the long-term the pair may exhibit a strong association and co-movement pattern. When the prices of the stocks exhibit significant divergence, the shares of the stock that gains in price are sold (a short strategy) while the shares of the other stock whose price falls are bought (a long strategy). This paper presents a cointegration-based approach that identifies stocks listed in the five sectors of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India for designing efficient pair-trading portfolios. Based on the stock prices from Jan 1, 2018, to Dec 31, 2020, the cointegrated stocks are identified and the pairs are formed. The pair-trading portfolios are evaluated on their annual returns for the year 2021. The results show that the pairs of stocks from the auto and the realty sectors, in general, yielded the highest returns among the five sectors studied in the work. However, two among the five pairs from the information technology (IT) sector are found to have yielded negative returns.