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 Statistical Learning


Predicting Treatment Adherence of Tuberculosis Patients at Scale

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious bacterial disease, is a significant cause of death, especially in low-income countries, with an estimated ten million new cases reported globally in $2020$. While TB is treatable, non-adherence to the medication regimen is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Thus, proactively identifying patients at risk of dropping off their medication regimen enables corrective measures to mitigate adverse outcomes. Using a proxy measure of extreme non-adherence and a dataset of nearly $700,000$ patients from four states in India, we formulate and solve the machine learning (ML) problem of early prediction of non-adherence based on a custom rank-based metric. We train ML models and evaluate against baselines, achieving a $\sim 100\%$ lift over rule-based baselines and $\sim 214\%$ over a random classifier, taking into account country-wide large-scale future deployment. We deal with various issues in the process, including data quality, high-cardinality categorical data, low target prevalence, distribution shift, variation across cohorts, algorithmic fairness, and the need for robustness and explainability. Our findings indicate that risk stratification of non-adherent patients is a viable, deployable-at-scale ML solution. As the official AI partner of India's Central TB Division, we are working on multiple city and state-level pilots with the goal of pan-India deployment.


Scientific Inference With Interpretable Machine Learning: Analyzing Models to Learn About Real-World Phenomena

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Interpretable machine learning (IML) is concerned with the behavior and the properties of machine learning models. Scientists, however, are only interested in models as a gateway to understanding phenomena. Our work aligns these two perspectives and shows how to design IML property descriptors. These descriptors are IML methods that provide insight not just into the model, but also into the properties of the phenomenon the model is designed to represent. We argue that IML is necessary for scientific inference with ML models because their elements do not individually represent phenomenon properties; instead, the model in its entirety does. However, current IML research often conflates two goals of model analysis -- model audit and scientific inference -- making it unclear which model interpretations can be used to learn about phenomena. Building on statistical decision theory, we show that IML property descriptors applied on a model provide access to relevant aspects of the joint probability distribution of the data. We identify what questions such descriptors can address, provide a guide to building appropriate descriptors and quantify their epistemic uncertainty.


How LinkedIn Uses Machine Learning To Rank Your Feed - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

In this post, you will learn to clarify business problems & constraints, understand problem statements, select evaluation metrics, overcome technical challenges, and design high-level systems.


Statistics with R Specialization Coursera Review 2022

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This course is about the discussion of sampling and exploring data, as well as basic probability theory and Bayes' rule. A variety of exploratory data analysis techniques will be covered, including numeric summary statistics and basic data visualization. The concepts and techniques you will find in this course will serve as building blocks for the inference and modeling courses in the Specialization.


How to plot a regplot using the seaborn Python library? - The Security Buddy

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We can use a regression plot or regplot to plot data and a linear regression model fit. For example, let's say we are reading the tips dataset. The dataset contains various information, such as total bill, tip amount, etc. Let's say we want to see the relationship between the total bill and the tip amount. For that purpose, we can plot a regression plot. We can use the following Python code to plot a regression plot between the total bill and the tip amount.


How Quantum Classifiers work part2(Advanced ML)

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Abstract: Machine learning is considered to be one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. Therefore, the search for quantum advantage of the quantum analogues of machine learning models is a key research goal. Here, we show that variational quantum classifiers (VQC) and support vector machines with quantum kernels (QSVM) can solve a classification problem based on the k-Forrelation problem, which is known to be PromiseBQP-complete. Because the PromiseBQP complexity class includes all Bounded-Error Quantum Polynomial-Time (BQP) decision problems, our results imply that there exists a feature map and a quantum kernel that make VQC and QSVM efficient solvers for any BQP problem. Abstract: In this paper, classical and continuous variable (CV) quantum neural network hybrid multiclassifiers are presented using the MNIST dataset.


Modeling Human Exploration Through Resource-Rational Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Equipping artificial agents with useful exploration mechanisms remains a challenge to this day. Humans, on the other hand, seem to manage the trade-off between exploration and exploitation effortlessly. In the present article, we put forward the hypothesis that they accomplish this by making optimal use of limited computational resources. We study this hypothesis by meta-learning reinforcement learning algorithms that sacrifice performance for a shorter description length (defined as the number of bits required to implement the given algorithm). The emerging class of models captures human exploration behavior better than previously considered approaches, such as Boltzmann exploration, upper confidence bound algorithms, and Thompson sampling. We additionally demonstrate that changing the description length in our class of models produces the intended effects: reducing description length captures the behavior of brain-lesioned patients while increasing it mirrors cognitive development during adolescence.


Distributed Estimation and Inference for Semi-parametric Binary Response Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The development of modern technology has enabled data collection of unprecedented size, which poses new challenges to many statistical estimation and inference problems. This paper studies the maximum score estimator of a semi-parametric binary choice model under a distributed computing environment without pre-specifying the noise distribution. An intuitive divide-and-conquer estimator is computationally expensive and restricted by a non-regular constraint on the number of machines, due to the highly non-smooth nature of the objective function. We propose (1) a one-shot divide-and-conquer estimator after smoothing the objective to relax the constraint, and (2) a multi-round estimator to completely remove the constraint via iterative smoothing. We specify an adaptive choice of kernel smoother with a sequentially shrinking bandwidth to achieve the superlinear improvement of the optimization error over the multiple iterations. The improved statistical accuracy per iteration is derived, and a quadratic convergence up to the optimal statistical error rate is established. We further provide two generalizations to handle the heterogeneity of datasets with covariate shift and high-dimensional problems where the parameter of interest is sparse.


Hope Speech Detection on Social Media Platforms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Since personal computers became widely available in the consumer market, the amount of harmful content on the internet has significantly expanded. In simple terms, harmful content is anything online which causes a person distress or harm. It may include hate speech, violent content, threats, non-hope speech, etc. The online content must be positive, uplifting and supportive. Over the past few years, many studies have focused on solving this problem through hate speech detection, but very few focused on identifying hope speech. This paper discusses various machine learning approaches to identify a sentence as Hope Speech, Non-Hope Speech, or a Neutral sentence. The dataset used in the study contains English YouTube comments and is released as a part of the shared task "EACL-2021: Hope Speech Detection for Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion". Initially, the dataset obtained from the shared task had three classes: Hope Speech, non-Hope speech, and not in English; however, upon deeper inspection, we discovered that dataset relabeling is required. A group of undergraduates was hired to help perform the entire dataset's relabeling task. We experimented with conventional machine learning models (such as Na\"ive Bayes, logistic regression and support vector machine) and pre-trained models (such as BERT) on relabeled data. According to the experimental results, the relabeled data has achieved a better accuracy for Hope speech identification than the original data set.


Beyond Static Models and Test Sets: Benchmarking the Potential of Pre-trained Models Across Tasks and Languages

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although recent Massively Multilingual Language Models (MMLMs) like mBERT and XLMR support around 100 languages, most existing multilingual NLP benchmarks provide evaluation data in only a handful of these languages with little linguistic diversity. We argue that this makes the existing practices in multilingual evaluation unreliable and does not provide a full picture of the performance of MMLMs across the linguistic landscape. We propose that the recent work done in Performance Prediction for NLP tasks can serve as a potential solution in fixing benchmarking in Multilingual NLP by utilizing features related to data and language typology to estimate the performance of an MMLM on different languages. We compare performance prediction with translating test data with a case study on four different multilingual datasets, and observe that these methods can provide reliable estimates of the performance that are often on-par with the translation based approaches, without the need for any additional translation as well as evaluation costs.