Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) aims to transfer knowledge from a well-labeled source domain to a different but related unlabeled target domain with identical label space. Currently, the main workhorse for solving UDA is domain alignment, which has proven successful. However, it is often difficult to find an appropriate source domain with identical label space. A more practical scenario is so-called partial domain adaptation (PDA) in which the source label set or space subsumes the target one. Unfortunately, in PDA, due to the existence of the irrelevant categories in the source domain, it is quite hard to obtain a perfect alignment, thus resulting in mode collapse and negative transfer. Although several efforts have been made by down-weighting the irrelevant source categories, the strategies used tend to be burdensome and risky since exactly which irrelevant categories are unknown. These challenges motivate us to find a relatively simpler alternative to solve PDA. To achieve this, we first provide a thorough theoretical analysis, which illustrates that the target risk is bounded by both model smoothness and between-domain discrepancy. Considering the difficulty of perfect alignment in solving PDA, we turn to focus on the model smoothness while discard the riskier domain alignment to enhance the adaptability of the model. Specifically, we instantiate the model smoothness as a quite simple intra-domain structure preserving (IDSP). To our best knowledge, this is the first naive attempt to address the PDA without domain alignment. Finally, our empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that IDSP is not only superior to the PDA SOTAs by a significant margin on some benchmarks (e.g., +10% on Cl->Rw and +8% on Ar->Rw ), but also complementary to domain alignment in the standard UDA

Estimating the effect of an intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference. Oftentimes, the confounders are unobserved, but we have access to large amounts of additional unstructured data (images, text) that contain valuable proxy signal about the missing confounders. This paper argues that leveraging this unstructured data can greatly improve the accuracy of causal effect estimation. Specifically, we introduce deep multi-modal structural equations, a generative model for causal effect estimation in which confounders are latent variables and unstructured data are proxy variables. This model supports multiple multi-modal proxies (images, text) as well as missing data. We empirically demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods based on propensity scores and corrects for confounding using unstructured inputs on tasks in genomics and healthcare. Our methods can potentially support the use of large amounts of data that were previously not used in causal inference.

Recently proposed Gated Linear Networks present a tractable nonlinear network architecture, and exhibit interesting capabilities such as learning with local error signals and reduced forgetting in sequential learning. In this work, we introduce a novel gating architecture, named Globally Gated Deep Linear Networks (GGDLNs) where gating units are shared among all processing units in each layer, thereby decoupling the architectures of the nonlinear but unlearned gatings and the learned linear processing motifs. We derive exact equations for the generalization properties in these networks in the finite-width thermodynamic limit, defined by $P,N\rightarrow\infty, P/N\sim O(1)$, where P and N are the training sample size and the network width respectively. We find that the statistics of the network predictor can be expressed in terms of kernels that undergo shape renormalization through a data-dependent matrix compared to the GP kernels. Our theory accurately captures the behavior of finite width GGDLNs trained with gradient descent dynamics. We show that kernel shape renormalization gives rise to rich generalization properties w.r.t. network width, depth and L2 regularization amplitude. Interestingly, networks with sufficient gating units behave similarly to standard ReLU networks. Although gatings in the model do not participate in supervised learning, we show the utility of unsupervised learning of the gating parameters. Additionally, our theory allows the evaluation of the network's ability for learning multiple tasks by incorporating task-relevant information into the gating units. In summary, our work is the first exact theoretical solution of learning in a family of nonlinear networks with finite width. The rich and diverse behavior of the GGDLNs suggests that they are helpful analytically tractable models of learning single and multiple tasks, in finite-width nonlinear deep networks.

Accurate spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting is essential for helping traffic managers to take control measures and drivers to choose the optimal travel routes. Recently, graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have been widely used in traffic flow prediction owing to their powerful ability to capture spatial-temporal dependencies. The design of the spatial-temporal graph adjacency matrix is a key to the success of GCNs, and it is still an open question. This paper proposes reconstructing the binary adjacency matrix via tensor decomposition, and a traffic flow forecasting method is proposed. First, we reformulate the spatial-temporal fusion graph adjacency matrix into a three-way adjacency tensor. Then, we reconstructed the adjacency tensor via Tucker decomposition, wherein more informative and global spatial-temporal dependencies are encoded. Finally, a Spatial-temporal Synchronous Graph Convolutional module for localized spatial-temporal correlations learning and a Dilated Convolution module for global correlations learning are assembled to aggregate and learn the comprehensive spatial-temporal dependencies of the road network. Experimental results on four open-access datasets demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of the prediction performance and computational cost.

Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent (NAG) is one of the milestones in the history of first-order algorithms. It was not successfully uncovered until the high-resolution differential equation framework was proposed in [Shi et al., 2022] that the mechanism behind the acceleration phenomenon is due to the gradient correction term. To deepen our understanding of the high-resolution differential equation framework on the convergence rate, we continue to investigate NAG for the $\mu$-strongly convex function based on the techniques of Lyapunov analysis and phase-space representation in this paper. First, we revisit the proof from the gradient-correction scheme. Similar to [Chen et al., 2022], the straightforward calculation simplifies the proof extremely and enlarges the step size to $s=1/L$ with minor modification. Meanwhile, the way of constructing Lyapunov functions is principled. Furthermore, we also investigate NAG from the implicit-velocity scheme. Due to the difference in the velocity iterates, we find that the Lyapunov function is constructed from the implicit-velocity scheme without the additional term and the calculation of iterative difference becomes simpler. Together with the optimal step size obtained, the high-resolution differential equation framework from the implicit-velocity scheme of NAG is perfect and outperforms the gradient-correction scheme.

We study the problem of explainability-first clustering where explainability becomes a first-class citizen for clustering. Previous clustering approaches use decision trees for explanation, but only after the clustering is completed. In contrast, our approach is to perform clustering and decision tree training holistically where the decision tree's performance and size also influence the clustering results. We assume the attributes for clustering and explaining are distinct, although this is not necessary. We observe that our problem is a monotonic optimization where the objective function is a difference of monotonic functions. We then propose an efficient branch-and-bound algorithm for finding the best parameters that lead to a balance of cluster distortion and decision tree explainability. Our experiments show that our method can improve the explainability of any clustering that fits in our framework.

This literature review identifies indicators that associate with higher impact or higher quality research from article text (e.g., titles, abstracts, lengths, cited references and readability) or metadata (e.g., the number of authors, international or domestic collaborations, journal impact factors and authors' h-index). This includes studies that used machine learning techniques to predict citation counts or quality scores for journal articles or conference papers. The literature review also includes evidence about the strength of association between bibliometric indicators and quality score rankings from previous UK Research Assessment Exercises (RAEs) and REFs in different subjects and years and similar evidence from other countries (e.g., Australia and Italy). In support of this, the document also surveys studies that used public datasets of citations, social media indictors or open review texts (e.g., Dimensions, OpenCitations, Altmetric.com and Publons) to help predict the scholarly impact of articles. The results of this part of the literature review were used to inform the experiments using machine learning to predict REF journal article quality scores, as reported in the AI experiments report for this project. The literature review also covers technology to automate editorial processes, to provide quality control for papers and reviewers' suggestions, to match reviewers with articles, and to automatically categorise journal articles into fields. Bias and transparency in technology assisted assessment are also discussed.

This paper presents SVAM (Sequential Variance-Altered MLE), a unified framework for learning generalized linear models under adversarial label corruption in training data. SVAM extends to tasks such as least squares regression, logistic regression, and gamma regression, whereas many existing works on learning with label corruptions focus only on least squares regression. SVAM is based on a novel variance reduction technique that may be of independent interest and works by iteratively solving weighted MLEs over variance-altered versions of the GLM objective. SVAM offers provable model recovery guarantees superior to the state-of-the-art for robust regression even when a constant fraction of training labels are adversarially corrupted. SVAM also empirically outperforms several existing problem-specific techniques for robust regression and classification. Code for SVAM is available at https://github.com/purushottamkar/svam/

The spectra of random feature matrices provide essential information on the conditioning of the linear system used in random feature regression problems and are thus connected to the consistency and generalization of random feature models. Random feature matrices are asymmetric rectangular nonlinear matrices depending on two input variables, the data and the weights, which can make their characterization challenging. We consider two settings for the two input variables, either both are random variables or one is a random variable and the other is well-separated, i.e. there is a minimum distance between points. With conditions on the dimension, the complexity ratio, and the sampling variance, we show that the singular values of these matrices concentrate near their full expectation and near one with high-probability. In particular, since the dimension depends only on the logarithm of the number of random weights or the number of data points, our complexity bounds can be achieved even in moderate dimensions for many practical setting. The theoretical results are verified with numerical experiments.