Estimating information-theoretic quantities such as entropy and mutual information is central to many problems in statistics and machine learning, but challenging in high dimensions. This paper presents estimators of entropy via inference (EEVI), which deliver upper and lower bounds on many information quantities for arbitrary variables in a probabilistic generative model. These estimators use importance sampling with proposal distribution families that include amortized variational inference and sequential Monte Carlo, which can be tailored to the target model and used to squeeze true information values with high accuracy. We present several theoretical properties of EEVI and demonstrate scalability and efficacy on two problems from the medical domain: (i) in an expert system for diagnosing liver disorders, we rank medical tests according to how informative they are about latent diseases, given a pattern of observed symptoms and patient attributes; and (ii) in a differential equation model of carbohydrate metabolism, we find optimal times to take blood glucose measurements that maximize information about a diabetic patient's insulin sensitivity, given their meal and medication schedule.

Traffic forecasting is an important application of spatiotemporal series prediction. Among different methods, graph neural networks have achieved so far the most promising results, learning relations between graph nodes then becomes a crucial task. However, improvement space is very limited when these relations are learned in a node-to-node manner. The challenge stems from (1) obscure temporal dependencies between different stations, (2) difficulties in defining variables beyond the node level, and (3) no ready-made method to validate the learned relations. To confront these challenges, we define legitimate traffic causal variables to discover the causal relation inside the traffic network, which is carefully checked with statistic tools and case analysis. We then present a novel model named Graph Spatial-Temporal Network Based on Causal Insight (GT-CausIn), where prior learned causal information is integrated with graph diffusion layers and temporal convolutional network (TCN) layers. Experiments are carried out on two real-world traffic datasets: PEMS-BAY and METR-LA, which show that GT-CausIn significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art models on mid-term and long-term prediction.

Weighted finite automata (WFAs) have been widely applied in many fields. One of the classic problems for WFAs is probability distribution estimation over sequences of discrete symbols. Although WFAs have been extended to deal with continuous input data, namely continuous WFAs (CWFAs), it is still unclear how to approximate density functions over sequences of continuous random variables using WFA-based models, due to the limitation on the expressiveness of the model as well as the tractability of approximating density functions via CWFAs. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear extension to the CWFA model to first improve its expressiveness, we refer to it as the nonlinear continuous WFAs (NCWFAs). Then we leverage the so-called RNADE method, which is a well-known density estimator based on neural networks, and propose the RNADE-NCWFA model. The RNADE-NCWFA model computes a density function by design. We show that this model is strictly more expressive than the Gaussian HMM model, which CWFA cannot approximate. Empirically, we conduct a synthetic experiment using Gaussian HMM generated data. We focus on evaluating the model's ability to estimate densities for sequences of varying lengths (longer length than the training data). We observe that our model performs the best among the compared baseline methods.

Causal inference is the process of using assumptions, study designs, and estimation strategies to draw conclusions about the causal relationships between variables based on data. This allows researchers to better understand the underlying mechanisms at work in complex systems and make more informed decisions. In many settings, we may not fully observe all the confounders that affect both the treatment and outcome variables, complicating the estimation of causal effects. To address this problem, a growing literature in both causal inference and machine learning proposes to use Instrumental Variables (IV). This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively introduce and discuss the IV methods and their applications in both causal inference and machine learning. First, we provide the formal definition of IVs and discuss the identification problem of IV regression methods under different assumptions. Second, we categorize the existing work on IV methods into three streams according to the focus on the proposed methods, including two-stage least squares with IVs, control function with IVs, and evaluation of IVs. For each stream, we present both the classical causal inference methods, and recent developments in the machine learning literature. Then, we introduce a variety of applications of IV methods in real-world scenarios and provide a summary of the available datasets and algorithms. Finally, we summarize the literature, discuss the open problems and suggest promising future research directions for IV methods and their applications. We also develop a toolkit of IVs methods reviewed in this survey at https://github.com/causal-machine-learning-lab/mliv.

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has found success in operations research and machine learning applications as a powerful means to obtain solutions with favourable out-of-sample performances. Two compelling explanations for the success are the generalization bounds derived from Wasserstein DRO and the equivalency between Wasserstein DRO and the regularization scheme commonly applied in machine learning. Existing results on generalization bounds and the equivalency to regularization are largely limited to the setting where the Wasserstein ball is of a certain type and the decision criterion takes certain forms of an expected function. In this paper, we show that by focusing on Wasserstein DRO problems with affine decision rules, it is possible to obtain generalization bounds and the equivalency to regularization in a significantly broader setting where the Wasserstein ball can be of a general type and the decision criterion can be a general measure of risk, i.e., nonlinear in distributions. This allows for accommodating many important classification, regression, and risk minimization applications that have not been addressed to date using Wasserstein DRO. Our results are strong in that the generalization bounds do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality and the equivalency to regularization is exact. As a byproduct, our regularization results broaden considerably the class of Wasserstein DRO models that can be solved efficiently via regularization formulations.

Explainability of a classification model is crucial when deployed in real-world decision support systems. Explanations make predictions actionable to the user and should inform about the capabilities and limitations of the system. Existing explanation methods, however, typically only provide explanations for individual predictions. Information about conditions under which the classifier is able to support the decision maker is not available, while for instance information about when the system is not able to differentiate classes can be very helpful. In the development phase it can support the search for new features or combining models, and in the operational phase it supports decision makers in deciding e.g. not to use the system. This paper presents a method to explain the qualities of a trained base classifier, called PERFormance EXplainer (PERFEX). Our method consists of a meta tree learning algorithm that is able to predict and explain under which conditions the base classifier has a high or low error or any other classification performance metric. We evaluate PERFEX using several classifiers and datasets, including a case study with urban mobility data. It turns out that PERFEX typically has high meta prediction performance even if the base classifier is hardly able to differentiate classes, while giving compact performance explanations.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is one of the most vibrant research frontiers in machine learning and has been recently applied to solve a number of challenging problems. In this paper, we primarily focus on off-policy evaluation (OPE), one of the most fundamental topics in RL. In recent years, a number of OPE methods have been developed in the statistics and computer science literature. We provide a discussion on the efficiency bound of OPE, some of the existing state-of-the-art OPE methods, their statistical properties and some other related research directions that are currently actively explored.

This work proposes a universal and adaptive second-order method for minimizing second-order smooth, convex functions. Our algorithm achieves $O(\sigma / \sqrt{T})$ convergence when the oracle feedback is stochastic with variance $\sigma^2$, and improves its convergence to $O( 1 / T^3)$ with deterministic oracles, where $T$ is the number of iterations. Our method also interpolates these rates without knowing the nature of the oracle apriori, which is enabled by a parameter-free adaptive step-size that is oblivious to the knowledge of smoothness modulus, variance bounds and the diameter of the constrained set. To our knowledge, this is the first universal algorithm with such global guarantees within the second-order optimization literature.

We develop an optimization algorithm suitable for Bayesian learning in complex models. Our approach relies on natural gradient updates within a general black-box framework for efficient training with limited model-specific derivations. It applies within the class of exponential-family variational posterior distributions, for which we extensively discuss the Gaussian case for which the updates have a rather simple form. Our Quasi Black-box Variational Inference (QBVI) framework is readily applicable to a wide class of Bayesian inference problems and is of simple implementation as the updates of the variational posterior do not involve gradients with respect to the model parameters, nor the prescription of the Fisher information matrix. We develop QBVI under different hypotheses for the posterior covariance matrix, discuss details about its robust and feasible implementation, and provide a number of real-world applications to demonstrate its effectiveness.

In recent years, deep learning (DL) models have demonstrated remarkable achievements on non-trivial tasks such as speech recognition and natural language understanding. One of the significant contributors to its success is the proliferation of end devices that acted as a catalyst to provide data for data-hungry DL models. However, computing DL training and inference is the main challenge. Usually, central cloud servers are used for the computation, but it opens up other significant challenges, such as high latency, increased communication costs, and privacy concerns. To mitigate these drawbacks, considerable efforts have been made to push the processing of DL models to edge servers. Moreover, the confluence point of DL and edge has given rise to edge intelligence (EI). This survey paper focuses primarily on the fifth level of EI, called all in-edge level, where DL training and inference (deployment) are performed solely by edge servers. All in-edge is suitable when the end devices have low computing resources, e.g., Internet-of-Things, and other requirements such as latency and communication cost are important in mission-critical applications, e.g., health care. Firstly, this paper presents all in-edge computing architectures, including centralized, decentralized, and distributed. Secondly, this paper presents enabling technologies, such as model parallelism and split learning, which facilitate DL training and deployment at edge servers. Thirdly, model adaptation techniques based on model compression and conditional computation are described because the standard cloud-based DL deployment cannot be directly applied to all in-edge due to its limited computational resources. Fourthly, this paper discusses eleven key performance metrics to evaluate the performance of DL at all in-edge efficiently. Finally, several open research challenges in the area of all in-edge are presented.