The fast development of renewable energies is a necessity to mitigate climate changes [22]. Wind energy has developed rapidly over the past three decades, with an average annual growth rate of 23.6% between 1990 and 2016 [17], and is now considered as a mature technology. The share of renewable energies in global electricity generation reached 29% in 2020, and is expected to keep growing fast in coming years [18] which raises a number of challenges, stemming from the variability and spatial distribution of the resource. Then, in order to facilitate the dynamic management of electricity networks, forecasts of wind energy require continual improvement. Short timescales, from a few minutes to a few hours, are of particular importance for operations. To produce forecasts, one can rely on several distinct sources of information. On timescales of half a day to about a week, deterministic weather forecasts provide a representation on a grid of the atmospheric state, including wind speed near the surface. The skill of such numerical weather forecasts (NWP) models has continually increased over the past decades [2], while their spatial resolution has also grown finer (down to few km).

The existing methods for trajectory prediction are difficult to describe trajectory of moving objects in complex and uncertain environment accurately. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an adaptive trajectory prediction method for moving objects based on variation Gaussian mixture model (VGMM) in dynamic environment (ESATP). Firstly, based on the traditional mixture Gaussian model, we use the approximate variational Bayesian inference method to process the mixture Gaussian distribution in model training procedure. Secondly, variational Bayesian expectation maximization iterative is used to learn the model parameters and prior information is used to get a more precise prediction model. Finally, for the input trajectories, parameter adaptive selection algorithm is used automatically to adjust the combination of parameters. Experiment results perform that the ESATP method in the experiment showed high predictive accuracy, and maintain a high time efficiency. This model can be used in products of mobile vehicle positioning.

For solving a broad class of nonconvex programming problems on an unbounded constraint set, we provide a self-adaptive step-size strategy that does not include line-search techniques and establishes the convergence of a generic approach under mild assumptions. Specifically, the objective function may not satisfy the convexity condition. Unlike descent line-search algorithms, it does not need a known Lipschitz constant to figure out how big the first step should be. The crucial feature of this process is the steady reduction of the step size until a certain condition is fulfilled. In particular, it can provide a new gradient projection approach to optimization problems with an unbounded constrained set. The correctness of the proposed method is verified by preliminary results from some computational examples. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique for large-scale problems, we apply it to some experiments on machine learning, such as supervised feature selection, multi-variable logistic regressions and neural networks for classification.

Efficient localization plays a vital role in many modern applications of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) and Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which would contribute to improved control, safety, power economy, etc. The ubiquitous 5G NR (New Radio) cellular network will provide new opportunities for enhancing localization of UAVs and UGVs. In this paper, we review the radio frequency (RF) based approaches for localization. We review the RF features that can be utilized for localization and investigate the current methods suitable for Unmanned vehicles under two general categories: range-based and fingerprinting. The existing state-of-the-art literature on RF-based localization for both UAVs and UGVs is examined, and the envisioned 5G NR for localization enhancement, and the future research direction are explored.

The publication time of a document carries a relevant information about its semantic content. The Dirichlet-Hawkes process has been proposed to jointly model textual information and publication dynamics. This approach has been used with success in several recent works, and extended to tackle specific challenging problems --typically for short texts or entangled publication dynamics. However, the prior in its current form does not allow for complex publication dynamics. In particular, inferred topics are independent from each other --a publication about finance is assumed to have no influence on publications about politics, for instance. In this work, we develop the Multivariate Powered Dirichlet-Hawkes Process (MPDHP), that alleviates this assumption. Publications about various topics can now influence each other. We detail and overcome the technical challenges that arise from considering interacting topics. We conduct a systematic evaluation of MPDHP on a range of synthetic datasets to define its application domain and limitations. Finally, we develop a use case of the MPDHP on Reddit data. At the end of this article, the interested reader will know how and when to use MPDHP, and when not to.

While many classical notions of learnability (e.g., PAC learnability) are distribution-free, utilizing the specific structures of an input distribution may improve learning performance. For example, a product distribution on a multi-dimensional input space has a much simpler structure than a correlated distribution. A recent paper [GHTZ21] shows that the sample complexity of a general learning problem on product distributions is polynomial in the input dimension, which is exponentially smaller than that on correlated distributions. However, the learning algorithm they use is not the standard Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) algorithm. In this note, we characterize the sample complexity of ERM in a general learning problem on product distributions. We show that, even though product distributions are simpler than correlated distributions, ERM still needs an exponential number of samples to learn on product distributions, instead of a polynomial. This leads to the conclusion that a product distribution by itself does not make a learning problem easier -- an algorithm designed specifically for product distributions is needed.

In time series forecasting, decomposition-based algorithms break aggregate data into meaningful components and are therefore appreciated for their particular advantages in interpretability. Recent algorithms often combine machine learning (hereafter ML) methodology with decomposition to improve prediction accuracy. However, incorporating ML is generally considered to sacrifice interpretability inevitably. In addition, existing hybrid algorithms usually rely on theoretical models with statistical assumptions and focus only on the accuracy of aggregate predictions, and thus suffer from accuracy problems, especially in component estimates. In response to the above issues, this research explores the possibility of improving accuracy without losing interpretability in time series forecasting. We first quantitatively define interpretability for data-driven forecasts and systematically review the existing forecasting algorithms from the perspective of interpretability. Accordingly, we propose the W-R algorithm, a hybrid algorithm that combines decomposition and ML from a novel perspective. Specifically, the W-R algorithm replaces the standard additive combination function with a weighted variant and uses ML to modify the estimates of all components simultaneously. We mathematically analyze the theoretical basis of the algorithm and validate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. In general, the W-R algorithm outperforms all decomposition-based and ML benchmarks. Based on P50_QL, the algorithm relatively improves by 8.76% in accuracy on the practical sales forecasts of JD.com and 77.99% on a public dataset of electricity loads. This research offers an innovative perspective to combine the statistical and ML algorithms, and JD.com has implemented the W-R algorithm to make accurate sales predictions and guide its marketing activities.

Inspired by the impressive success of contrastive learning (CL), a variety of graph augmentation strategies have been employed to learn node representations in a self-supervised manner. Existing methods construct the contrastive samples by adding perturbations to the graph structure or node attributes. Although impressive results are achieved, it is rather blind to the wealth of prior information assumed: with the increase of the perturbation degree applied on the original graph, 1) the similarity between the original graph and the generated augmented graph gradually decreases; 2) the discrimination between all nodes within each augmented view gradually increases. In this paper, we argue that both such prior information can be incorporated (differently) into the contrastive learning paradigm following our general ranking framework. In particular, we first interpret CL as a special case of learning to rank (L2R), which inspires us to leverage the ranking order among positive augmented views. Meanwhile, we introduce a self-ranking paradigm to ensure that the discriminative information among different nodes can be maintained and also be less altered to the perturbations of different degrees. Experiment results on various benchmark datasets verify the effectiveness of our algorithm compared with the supervised and unsupervised models.

Multiple choice questions (MCQs) are widely used in digital learning systems, as they allow for automating the assessment process. However, due to the increased digital literacy of students and the advent of social media platforms, MCQ tests are widely shared online, and teachers are continuously challenged to create new questions, which is an expensive and time-consuming task. A particularly sensitive aspect of MCQ creation is to devise relevant distractors, i.e., wrong answers that are not easily identifiable as being wrong. This paper studies how a large existing set of manually created answers and distractors for questions over a variety of domains, subjects, and languages can be leveraged to help teachers in creating new MCQs, by the smart reuse of existing distractors. We built several data-driven models based on context-aware question and distractor representations, and compared them with static feature-based models. The proposed models are evaluated with automated metrics and in a realistic user test with teachers. Both automatic and human evaluations indicate that context-aware models consistently outperform a static feature-based approach. For our best-performing context-aware model, on average 3 distractors out of the 10 shown to teachers were rated as high-quality distractors. We create a performance benchmark, and make it public, to enable comparison between different approaches and to introduce a more standardized evaluation of the task. The benchmark contains a test of 298 educational questions covering multiple subjects & languages and a 77k multilingual pool of distractor vocabulary for future research.

We study a class of dynamical systems modelled as Markov chains that admit an invariant distribution via the corresponding transfer, or Koopman, operator. While data-driven algorithms to reconstruct such operators are well known, their relationship with statistical learning is largely unexplored. We formalize a framework to learn the Koopman operator from finite data trajectories of the dynamical system. We consider the restriction of this operator to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and introduce a notion of risk, from which different estimators naturally arise. We link the risk with the estimation of the spectral decomposition of the Koopman operator. These observations motivate a reduced-rank operator regression (RRR) estimator. We derive learning bounds for the proposed estimator, holding both in i.i.d. and non i.i.d. settings, the latter in terms of mixing coefficients. Our results suggest RRR might be beneficial over other widely used estimators as confirmed in numerical experiments both for forecasting and mode decomposition.