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 Statistical Learning


Domain Adaptation Principal Component Analysis: base linear method for learning with out-of-distribution data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Domain adaptation is a popular paradigm in modern machine learning which aims at tackling the problem of divergence (or shift) between the labeled training and validation datasets (source domain) and a potentially large unlabeled dataset (target domain). The task is to embed both datasets red into a common space in which the source dataset is informative for training while the divergence between source and target is minimized. The most popular domain adaptation solutions are based on training neural networks that combine classification and adversarial learning modules, frequently making them both data-hungry and difficult to train. We present a method called Domain Adaptation Principal Component Analysis (DAPCA) that identifies a linear reduced data representation useful for solving the domain adaptation task. DAPCA algorithm introduces positive and negative weights between pairs of data points, and generalizes the supervised extension of principal component analysis. DAPCA is an iterative algorithm that solves a simple quadratic optimization problem at each iteration. The convergence of the algorithm is guaranteed, and the number of iterations is small in practice. We validate the suggested algorithm on previously proposed benchmarks for solving the domain adaptation task. We also show the benefit of using DAPCA in analyzing the single-cell omics datasets in biomedical applications. Overall, DAPCA can serve as a practical preprocessing step in many machine learning applications leading to reduced dataset representations, taking into account possible divergence between source and target domains.


The Effects of Character-Level Data Augmentation on Style-Based Dating of Historical Manuscripts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identifying the production dates of historical manuscripts is one of the main goals for paleographers when studying ancient documents. Automatized methods can provide paleographers with objective tools to estimate dates more accurately. Previously, statistical features have been used to date digitized historical manuscripts based on the hypothesis that handwriting styles change over periods. However, the sparse availability of such documents poses a challenge in obtaining robust systems. Hence, the research of this article explores the influence of data augmentation on the dating of historical manuscripts. Linear Support Vector Machines were trained with k-fold cross-validation on textural and grapheme-based features extracted from historical manuscripts of different collections, including the Medieval Paleographical Scale, early Aramaic manuscripts, and the Dead Sea Scrolls. Results show that training models with augmented data improve the performance of historical manuscripts dating by 1% - 3% in cumulative scores. Additionally, this indicates further enhancement possibilities by considering models specific to the features and the documents' scripts.


Holistic risk assessment of inference attacks in machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As machine learning's expanding application, there are more and more unignorable privacy and safety issues. Especially inference attacks against Machine Learning models allow adversaries to infer sensitive information about the target model, such as training data, model parameters, etc. Inference attacks can lead to serious consequences, including violating individuals' privacy, compromising the intellectual property of the owner of the machine learning model. As far as concerned, researchers have studied and analyzed in depth several types of inference attacks, albeit in isolation, but there's still a lack of a holistic rick assessment of inference attacks against machine learning models, such as their application in different scenarios, the common factors affecting the performance of these attacks and the relationship among the attacks. As a result, this paper performs a holistic risk assessment of different inference attacks against Machine Learning models. This paper focuses on three kinds of representative attacks: membership inference attack, attribute inference attack and model stealing attack. And a threat model taxonomy is established. A total of 12 target models using three model architectures, including AlexNet, ResNet18 and Simple CNN, are trained on four datasets, namely CelebA, UTKFace, STL10 and FMNIST. Membership inference attack, attribute attack and model stealing attack are executed against these target models under different threat models respectively, and the performance of inference attacks is evaluated with attack accuracy as an indicator, which demonstrates that the complexity of the training dataset and overfitting level of the target models have a significant impact on the performance of inference attacks, while the effectiveness of the model stealing attack is negatively correlated with the membership inference attack.


Learning Inter-Annual Flood Loss Risk Models From Historical Flood Insurance Claims and Extreme Rainfall Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Flooding is one of the most disastrous natural hazards, responsible for substantial economic losses. A predictive model for flood-induced financial damages is useful for many applications such as climate change adaptation planning and insurance underwriting. This research assesses the predictive capability of regressors constructed on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) dataset using neural networks (Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks), decision trees (Extreme Gradient Boosting), and kernel-based regressors (Gaussian Process). The assessment highlights the most informative predictors for regression. The distribution for claims amount inference is modeled with a Burr distribution permitting the introduction of a bias correction scheme and increasing the regressor's predictive capability. Aiming to study the interaction with physical variables, we incorporate Daymet rainfall estimation to NFIP as an additional predictor. A study on the coastal counties in the eight US South-West states resulted in an $R^2=0.807$. Further analysis of 11 counties with a significant number of claims in the NFIP dataset reveals that Extreme Gradient Boosting provides the best results, that bias correction significantly improves the similarity with the reference distribution, and that the rainfall predictor strengthens the regressor performance.


Toward Improved Generalization: Meta Transfer of Self-supervised Knowledge on Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the remarkable success achieved by graph convolutional networks for functional brain activity analysis, the heterogeneity of functional patterns and the scarcity of imaging data still pose challenges in many tasks. Transferring knowledge from a source domain with abundant training data to a target domain is effective for improving representation learning on scarce training data. However, traditional transfer learning methods often fail to generalize the pre-trained knowledge to the target task due to domain discrepancy. Self-supervised learning on graphs can increase the generalizability of graph features since self-supervision concentrates on inherent graph properties that are not limited to a particular supervised task. We propose a novel knowledge transfer strategy by integrating meta-learning with self-supervised learning to deal with the heterogeneity and scarcity of fMRI data. Specifically, we perform a self-supervised task on the source domain and apply meta-learning, which strongly improves the generalizability of the model using the bi-level optimization, to transfer the self-supervised knowledge to the target domain. Through experiments on a neurological disorder classification task, we demonstrate that the proposed strategy significantly improves target task performance by increasing the generalizability and transferability of graph-based knowledge.


GWRBoost:A geographically weighted gradient boosting method for explainable quantification of spatially-varying relationships

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The geographically weighted regression (GWR) is an essential tool for estimating the spatial variation of relationships between dependent and independent variables in geographical contexts. However, GWR suffers from the problem that classical linear regressions, which compose the GWR model, are more prone to be underfitting, especially for significant volume and complex nonlinear data, causing inferior comparative performance. Nevertheless, some advanced models, such as the decision tree and the support vector machine, can learn features from complex data more effectively while they cannot provide explainable quantification for the spatial variation of localized relationships. To address the above issues, we propose a geographically gradient boosting weighted regression model, GWRBoost, that applies the localized additive model and gradient boosting optimization method to alleviate underfitting problems and retains explainable quantification capability for spatially-varying relationships between geographically located variables. Furthermore, we formulate the computation method of the Akaike information score for the proposed model to conduct the comparative analysis with the classic GWR algorithm. Simulation experiments and the empirical case study are applied to prove the efficient performance and practical value of GWRBoost. The results show that our proposed model can reduce the RMSE by 18.3% in parameter estimation accuracy and AICc by 67.3% in the goodness of fit.


Calibrating AI Models for Wireless Communications via Conformal Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify the uncertainty of its decisions, assigning high confidence levels to decisions that are likely to be correct and low confidence levels to decisions that are likely to be erroneous. This paper investigates the application of conformal prediction as a general framework to obtain AI models that produce decisions with formal calibration guarantees. Conformal prediction transforms probabilistic predictors into set predictors that are guaranteed to contain the correct answer with a probability chosen by the designer. Such formal calibration guarantees hold irrespective of the true, unknown, distribution underlying the generation of the variables of interest, and can be defined in terms of ensemble or time-averaged probabilities. In this paper, conformal prediction is applied for the first time to the design of AI for communication systems in conjunction to both frequentist and Bayesian learning, focusing on demodulation, modulation classification, and channel prediction.


Let's consider more general nonlinear approaches to study teleconnections of climate variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent work by (Rieger et al 2021) is concerned with the problem of extracting features from spatio-temporal geophysical signals. The authors introduce the complex rotated MCA (xMCA) to deal with lagged effects and non-orthogonality of the feature representation. This method essentially (1) transforms the signals to a complex plane with the Hilbert transform; (2) applies an oblique (Varimax and Promax) rotation to remove the orthogonality constraint; and (3) performs the eigendecomposition in this complex space (Horel et al, 1984). We argue that this method is essentially a particular case of the method called rotated complex kernel principal component analysis (ROCK-PCA) introduced in (Bueso et al., 2019, 2020), where we proposed the same approach: first transform the data to the complex plane with the Hilbert transform and then apply the varimax rotation, with the only difference that the eigendecomposition is performed in the dual (kernel) Hilbert space. The latter allows us to generalize the xMCA solution by extracting nonlinear (curvilinear) features when nonlinear kernel functions are used. Hence, the solution of xMCA boils down to ROCK-PCA when the inner product is computed in the input data space instead of in the high-dimensional (possibly infinite) kernel Hilbert space to which data has been mapped. In this short correspondence we show theoretical proof that xMCA is a special case of ROCK-PCA and provide quantitative evidence that more expressive and informative features can be extracted when working with kernels; results of the decomposition of global sea surface temperature (SST) fields are shown to illustrate the capabilities of ROCK-PCA to cope with nonlinear processes, unlike xMCA.


Quantum Clustering with k-Means: a Hybrid Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum computing is a promising paradigm based on quantum theory for performing fast computations. Quantum algorithms are expected to surpass their classical counterparts in terms of computational complexity for certain tasks, including machine learning. In this paper, we design, implement, and evaluate three hybrid quantum k-Means algorithms, exploiting different degree of parallelism. Indeed, each algorithm incrementally leverages quantum parallelism to reduce the complexity of the cluster assignment step up to a constant cost. In particular, we exploit quantum phenomena to speed up the computation of distances. The core idea is that the computation of distances between records and centroids can be executed simultaneously, thus saving time, especially for big datasets. We show that our hybrid quantum k-Means algorithms can be more efficient than the classical version, still obtaining comparable clustering results.


Anomaly Detection in Driving by Cluster Analysis Twice

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Events deviating from normal traffic patterns in driving, anomalies, such as aggressive driving or bumpy roads, may harm delivery efficiency for transportation and logistics (T&L) business. Thus, detecting anomalies in driving is critical for the T&L industry. So far numerous researches have used vehicle sensor data to identify anomalies. Most previous works captured anomalies by using deep learning or machine learning algorithms, which require prior training processes and huge computational costs. This study proposes a method namely Anomaly Detection in Driving by Cluster Analysis Twice (ADDCAT) which clusters the processed sensor data in different physical properties. An event is said to be an anomaly if it never fits with the major cluster, which is considered as the pattern of normality in driving. This method provides a way to detect anomalies in driving with no prior training processes and huge computational costs needed. This paper validated the performance of the method on an open dataset.