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 Statistical Learning


Penalised regression with multiple sources of prior effects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many high-dimensional prediction or classification tasks, complementary data on the features are available, e.g. prior biological knowledge on (epi)genetic markers. Here we consider tasks with numerical prior information that provide an insight into the importance (weight) and the direction (sign) of the feature effects, e.g. regression coefficients from previous studies. We propose an approach for integrating multiple sources of such prior information into penalised regression. If suitable co-data are available, this improves the predictive performance, as shown by simulation and application. The proposed method is implemented in the R package `transreg' (https://github.com/lcsb-bds/transreg).


Multi-Task Learning for Sparsity Pattern Heterogeneity: A Discrete Optimization Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We extend best-subset selection to linear Multi-Task Learning (MTL), where a set of linear models are jointly trained on a collection of datasets (``tasks''). Allowing the regression coefficients of tasks to have different sparsity patterns (i.e., different supports), we propose a modeling framework for MTL that encourages models to share information across tasks, for a given covariate, through separately 1) shrinking the coefficient supports together, and/or 2) shrinking the coefficient values together. This allows models to borrow strength during variable selection even when the coefficient values differ markedly between tasks. We express our modeling framework as a Mixed-Integer Program, and propose efficient and scalable algorithms based on block coordinate descent and combinatorial local search. We show our estimator achieves statistically optimal prediction rates. Importantly, our theory characterizes how our estimator leverages the shared support information across tasks to achieve better variable selection performance. We evaluate the performance of our method in simulations and two biology applications. Our proposed approaches outperform other sparse MTL methods in variable selection and prediction accuracy. Interestingly, penalties that shrink the supports together often outperform penalties that shrink the coefficient values together. We will release an R package implementing our methods.


Interpretable models for extrapolation in scientific machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data-driven models are central to scientific discovery. In efforts to achieve state-of-the-art model accuracy, researchers are employing increasingly complex machine learning algorithms that often outperform simple regressions in interpolative settings (e.g. random k-fold cross-validation) but suffer from poor extrapolation performance, portability, and human interpretability, which limits their potential for facilitating novel scientific insight. Here we examine the trade-off between model performance and interpretability across a broad range of science and engineering problems with an emphasis on materials science datasets. We compare the performance of black box random forest and neural network machine learning algorithms to that of single-feature linear regressions which are fitted using interpretable input features discovered by a simple random search algorithm. For interpolation problems, the average prediction errors of linear regressions were twice as high as those of black box models. Remarkably, when prediction tasks required extrapolation, linear models yielded average error only 5% higher than that of black box models, and outperformed black box models in roughly 40% of the tested prediction tasks, which suggests that they may be desirable over complex algorithms in many extrapolation problems because of their superior interpretability, computational overhead, and ease of use. The results challenge the common assumption that extrapolative models for scientific machine learning are constrained by an inherent trade-off between performance and interpretability.


Learning on Persistence Diagrams as Radon Measures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Persistence diagrams are common descriptors of the topological structure of data appearing in various classification and regression tasks. They can be generalized to Radon measures supported on the birth-death plane and endowed with an optimal transport distance. Examples of such measures are expectations of probability distributions on the space of persistence diagrams. In this paper, we develop methods for approximating continuous functions on the space of Radon measures supported on the birth-death plane, as well as their utilization in supervised learning tasks. Indeed, we show that any continuous function defined on a compact subset of the space of such measures (e.g., a classifier or regressor) can be approximated arbitrarily well by polynomial combinations of features computed using a continuous compactly supported function on the birth-death plane (a template). We provide insights into the structure of relatively compact subsets of the space of Radon measures, and test our approximation methodology on various data sets and supervised learning tasks.


Fine-grained Czech News Article Dataset: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Trustworthiness Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present the Verifee Dataset: a novel dataset of news articles with fine-grained trustworthiness annotations. We develop a detailed methodology that assesses the texts based on their parameters encompassing editorial transparency, journalist conventions, and objective reporting while penalizing manipulative techniques. We bring aboard a diverse set of researchers from social, media, and computer sciences to overcome barriers and limited framing of this interdisciplinary problem. We collect over $10,000$ unique articles from almost $60$ Czech online news sources. These are categorized into one of the $4$ classes across the credibility spectrum we propose, raging from entirely trustworthy articles all the way to the manipulative ones. We produce detailed statistics and study trends emerging throughout the set. Lastly, we fine-tune multiple popular sequence-to-sequence language models using our dataset on the trustworthiness classification task and report the best testing F-1 score of $0.52$. We open-source the dataset, annotation methodology, and annotators' instructions in full length at https://verifee.ai/research to enable easy build-up work. We believe similar methods can help prevent disinformation and educate in the realm of media literacy.


Generalization Bounds for Inductive Matrix Completion in Low-noise Settings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study inductive matrix completion (matrix completion with side information) under an i.i.d. subgaussian noise assumption at a low noise regime, with uniform sampling of the entries. We obtain for the first time generalization bounds with the following three properties: (1) they scale like the standard deviation of the noise and in particular approach zero in the exact recovery case; (2) even in the presence of noise, they converge to zero when the sample size approaches infinity; and (3) for a fixed dimension of the side information, they only have a logarithmic dependence on the size of the matrix. Differently from many works in approximate recovery, we present results both for bounded Lipschitz losses and for the absolute loss, with the latter relying on Talagrand-type inequalities. The proofs create a bridge between two approaches to the theoretical analysis of matrix completion, since they consist in a combination of techniques from both the exact recovery literature and the approximate recovery literature.


Simulating Road Spray Effects in Automotive Lidar Sensor Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modeling perception sensors is key for simulation based testing of automated driving functions. Beyond weather conditions themselves, sensors are also subjected to object dependent environmental influences like tire spray caused by vehicles moving on wet pavement. In this work, a novel modeling approach for spray in lidar data is introduced. The model conforms to the Open Simulation Interface (OSI) standard and is based on the formation of detection clusters within a spray plume. The detections are rendered with a simple custom ray casting algorithm without the need of a fluid dynamics simulation or physics engine. The model is subsequently used to generate training data for object detection algorithms. It is shown that the model helps to improve detection in real-world spray scenarios significantly. Furthermore, a systematic real-world data set is recorded and published for analysis, model calibration and validation of spray effects in active perception sensors. Experiments are conducted on a test track by driving over artificially watered pavement with varying vehicle speeds, vehicle types and levels of pavement wetness. All models and data of this work are available open source.


Check-worthy Claim Detection across Topics for Automated Fact-checking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An important component of an automated fact-checking system is the claim check-worthiness detection system, which ranks sentences by prioritising them based on their need to be checked. Despite a body of research tackling the task, previous research has overlooked the challenging nature of identifying check-worthy claims across different topics. In this paper, we assess and quantify the challenge of detecting check-worthy claims for new, unseen topics. After highlighting the problem, we propose the AraCWA model to mitigate the performance deterioration when detecting check-worthy claims across topics. The AraCWA model enables boosting the performance for new topics by incorporating two components for few-shot learning and data augmentation. Using a publicly available dataset of Arabic tweets consisting of 14 different topics, we demonstrate that our proposed data augmentation strategy achieves substantial improvements across topics overall, where the extent of the improvement varies across topics. Further, we analyse the semantic similarities between topics, suggesting that the similarity metric could be used as a proxy to determine the difficulty level of an unseen topic prior to undertaking the task of labelling the underlying sentences.


Twitter's Agenda-Setting Role: A Study of Twitter Strategy for Political Diversion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study verified the effectiveness of Donald Trump's Twitter campaign in guiding agen-da-setting and deflecting political risk and examined Trump's Twitter communication strategy and explores the communication effects of his tweet content during Covid-19 pandemic. We collected all tweets posted by Trump on the Twitter platform from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020.We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis with a fixed effects model to analyze the existence of the Twitter strategy. The correlation between the number of con-firmed daily Covid-19 diagnoses and the number of particular thematic tweets was investigated using time series analysis. Empirical analysis revealed Twitter's strategy is used to divert public attention from negative Covid-19 reports during the epidemic, and it posts a powerful political communication effect on Twitter. However, findings suggest that Trump did not use false claims to divert political risk and shape public opinion.


Robust Learning Protocol for Federated Tumor Segmentation Challenge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we devise robust and efficient learning protocols for orchestrating a Federated Learning (FL) process for the Federated Tumor Segmentation Challenge (FeTS 2022). Enabling FL for FeTS setup is challenging mainly due to data heterogeneity among collaborators and communication cost of training. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Robust Learning Protocol (RoLePRO) which is a combination of server-side adaptive optimisation (e.g., server-side Adam) and judicious parameter (weights) aggregation schemes (e.g., adaptive weighted aggregation). RoLePRO takes a two-phase approach, where the first phase consists of vanilla Federated Averaging, while the second phase consists of a judicious aggregation scheme that uses a sophisticated re-weighting, all in the presence of an adaptive optimisation algorithm at the server. We draw insights from extensive experimentation to tune learning rates for the two phases.