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 Statistical Learning


Fast and robust Bayesian Inference using Gaussian Processes with GPry

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present the GPry algorithm for fast Bayesian inference of general (non-Gaussian) posteriors with a moderate number of parameters. GPry does not need any pre-training, special hardware such as GPUs, and is intended as a drop-in replacement for traditional Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference. Our algorithm is based on generating a Gaussian Process surrogate model of the log-posterior, aided by a Support Vector Machine classifier that excludes extreme or non-finite values. An active learning scheme allows us to reduce the number of required posterior evaluations by two orders of magnitude compared to traditional Monte Carlo inference. Our algorithm allows for parallel evaluations of the posterior at optimal locations, further reducing wall-clock times. We significantly improve performance using properties of the posterior in our active learning scheme and for the definition of the GP prior. In particular we account for the expected dynamical range of the posterior in different dimensionalities. We test our model against a number of synthetic and cosmological examples. GPry outperforms traditional Monte Carlo methods when the evaluation time of the likelihood (or the calculation of theoretical observables) is of the order of seconds; for evaluation times of over a minute it can perform inference in days that would take months using traditional methods. GPry is distributed as an open source Python package (pip install gpry) and can also be found at https://github.com/jonaselgammal/GPry.


Latent Evolution Model for Change Point Detection in Time-varying Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph-based change point detection (CPD) play an irreplaceable role in discovering anomalous graphs in the time-varying network. While several techniques have been proposed to detect change points by identifying whether there is a significant difference between the target network and successive previous ones, they neglect the natural evolution of the network. In practice, real-world graphs such as social networks, traffic networks, and rating networks are constantly evolving over time. Considering this problem, we treat the problem as a prediction task and propose a novel CPD method for dynamic graphs via a latent evolution model. Our method focuses on learning the low-dimensional representations of networks and capturing the evolving patterns of these learned latent representations simultaneously. After having the evolving patterns, a prediction of the target network can be achieved. Then, we can detect the change points by comparing the prediction and the actual network by leveraging a trade-off strategy, which balances the importance between the prediction network and the normal graph pattern extracted from previous networks. Intensive experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness and superiority of our model.


Context-dependent Explainability and Contestability for Trustworthy Medical Artificial Intelligence: Misclassification Identification of Morbidity Recognition Models in Preterm Infants

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although machine learning (ML) models of AI achieve high performances in medicine, they are not free of errors. Empowering clinicians to identify incorrect model recommendations is crucial for engendering trust in medical AI. Explainable AI (XAI) aims to address this requirement by clarifying AI reasoning to support the end users. Several studies on biomedical imaging achieved promising results recently. Nevertheless, solutions for models using tabular data are not sufficient to meet the requirements of clinicians yet. This paper proposes a methodology to support clinicians in identifying failures of ML models trained with tabular data. We built our methodology on three main pillars: decomposing the feature set by leveraging clinical context latent space, assessing the clinical association of global explanations, and Latent Space Similarity (LSS) based local explanations. We demonstrated our methodology on ML-based recognition of preterm infant morbidities caused by infection. The risk of mortality, lifelong disability, and antibiotic resistance due to model failures was an open research question in this domain. We achieved to identify misclassification cases of two models with our approach. By contextualizing local explanations, our solution provides clinicians with actionable insights to support their autonomy for informed final decisions.


Accurate Open-set Recognition for Memory Workload

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The global DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) market size is about tens of billions USD, and keeps increasing due to growing demand of DRAM in mobile devices, modern computers, selfdriving cars, etc. It is crucial to test DRAM using various workloads in verifying and guaranteeing DRAM quality. DRAM manufacturers utilize their known workloads for verification; however, it does not guarantee that DRAM works well for new workloads not known in advance. Therefore, it is necessary to detect new workloads to improve the quality of DRAM verification. The problem of detecting new workloads is formulated as an open-set recognition [19] task which classifies a test sample into the known classes or the unknown class, and identifies its class if it belongs to the known classes. A workload sequence contains a series of tuples with the command and the address information of memory accesses. To detect new workloads based on open-set recognition, we exploit a subsequence, a part of the entire sequence of a workload. Given a subsequence, we classify it into one of the known workload classes or identify it as the unknown class corresponding to new workloads.


Multi-Instance Partial-Label Learning: Towards Exploiting Dual Inexact Supervision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Weakly supervised machine learning algorithms are able to learn from ambiguous samples or labels, e.g., multi-instance learning or partial-label learning. However, in some real-world tasks, each training sample is associated with not only multiple instances but also a candidate label set that contains one ground-truth label and some false positive labels. Specifically, at least one instance pertains to the ground-truth label while no instance belongs to the false positive labels. In this paper, we formalize such problems as multi-instance partial-label learning (MIPL). Existing multi-instance learning algorithms and partial-label learning algorithms are suboptimal for solving MIPL problems since the former fail to disambiguate a candidate label set, and the latter cannot handle a multi-instance bag. To address these issues, a tailored algorithm named MIPLGP, i.e., Multi-Instance Partial-Label learning with Gaussian Processes, is proposed. MIPLGP first assigns each instance with a candidate label set in an augmented label space, then transforms the candidate label set into a logarithmic space to yield the disambiguated and continuous labels via an exclusive disambiguation strategy, and last induces a model based on the Gaussian processes. Experimental results on various datasets validate that MIPLGP is superior to well-established multi-instance learning and partial-label learning algorithms for solving MIPL problems. Our code and datasets will be made publicly available.


Laplacian Convolutional Representation for Traffic Time Series Imputation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatiotemporal traffic data imputation is of great significance in intelligent transportation systems and data-driven decision-making processes. To make an accurate reconstruction from partially observed traffic data, we assert the importance of characterizing both global and local trends in traffic time series. In the literature, substantial prior works have demonstrated the effectiveness of utilizing low-rankness property of traffic data by matrix/tensor completion models. In this study, we first introduce a Laplacian kernel to temporal regularization for characterizing local trends in traffic time series, which can be formulated in the form of circular convolution. Then, we develop a low-rank Laplacian convolutional representation (LCR) model by putting the nuclear norm of a circulant matrix and the Laplacian temporal regularization together, which is proved to meet a unified framework that takes a fast Fourier transform (FFT) solution in a relatively low time complexity. Through extensive experiments on some traffic datasets, we demonstrate the superiority of LCR for imputing traffic time series of various time series behaviors (e.g., data noises and strong/weak periodicity). The proposed LCR model is an efficient and effective solution to large-scale traffic data imputation over the existing baseline models. Despite the LCR's application to time series data, the key modeling idea lies in bridging the low-rank models and the Laplacian regularization through FFT, which is also applicable to image inpainting. The adapted datasets and Python implementation are publicly available at https://github.com/xinychen/transdim.


Improving Mutual Information based Feature Selection by Boosting Unique Relevance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mutual Information (MI) based feature selection makes use of MI to evaluate each feature and eventually shortlists a relevant feature subset, in order to address issues associated with high-dimensional datasets. Despite the effectiveness of MI in feature selection, we notice that many state-of-the-art algorithms disregard the so-called unique relevance (UR) of features, and arrive at a suboptimal selected feature subset which contains a non-negligible number of redundant features. We point out that the heart of the problem is that all these MIBFS algorithms follow the criterion of Maximize Relevance with Minimum Redundancy (MRwMR), which does not explicitly target UR. This motivates us to augment the existing criterion with the objective of boosting unique relevance (BUR), leading to a new criterion called MRwMR-BUR. Depending on the task being addressed, MRwMR-BUR has two variants, termed MRwMR-BUR-KSG and MRwMR-BUR-CLF, which estimate UR differently. MRwMR-BUR-KSG estimates UR via a nearest-neighbor based approach called the KSG estimator and is designed for three major tasks: (i) Classification Performance. (ii) Feature Interpretability. (iii) Classifier Generalization. MRwMR-BUR-CLF estimates UR via a classifier based approach. It adapts UR to different classifiers, further improving the competitiveness of MRwMR-BUR for classification performance oriented tasks. The performance of both MRwMR-BUR-KSG and MRwMR-BUR-CLF is validated via experiments using six public datasets and three popular classifiers. Specifically, as compared to MRwMR, the proposed MRwMR-BUR-KSG improves the test accuracy by 2% - 3% with 25% - 30% fewer features being selected, without increasing the algorithm complexity. MRwMR-BUR-CLF further improves the classification performance by 3.8%- 5.5% (relative to MRwMR), and it also outperforms three popular classifier dependent feature selection methods.


Convergence Analysis for Training Stochastic Neural Networks via Stochastic Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we carry out numerical analysis to prove convergence of a novel sample-wise back-propagation method for training a class of stochastic neural networks (SNNs). The structure of the SNN is formulated as discretization of a stochastic differential equation (SDE). A stochastic optimal control framework is introduced to model the training procedure, and a sample-wise approximation scheme for the adjoint backward SDE is applied to improve the efficiency of the stochastic optimal control solver, which is equivalent to the back-propagation for training the SNN. The convergence analysis is derived with and without convexity assumption for optimization of the SNN parameters. Especially, our analysis indicates that the number of SNN training steps should be proportional to the square of the number of layers in the convex optimization case. Numerical experiments are carried out to validate the analysis results, and the performance of the sample-wise back-propagation method for training SNNs is examined by benchmark machine learning examples.


Impact of Sentiment Analysis in Fake Review Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fake review identification is an important topic and has gained the interest of experts all around the world. Identifying fake reviews is challenging for researchers, and there are several primary challenges to fake review detection. We propose developing an initial research paper for investigating fake reviews by using sentiment analysis. Ten research papers are identified that show fake reviews, and they discuss currently available solutions for predicting or detecting fake reviews. They also show the distribution of fake and truthful reviews through the analysis of sentiment. We summarize and compare previous studies related to fake reviews. We highlight the most significant challenges in the sentiment evaluation process and demonstrate that there is a significant impact on sentiment scores used to identify fake feedback.


Two-sample test based on Self-Organizing Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine-learning classifiers can be leveraged as a two-sample statistical test. Suppose each sample is assigned a different label and that a classifier can obtain a better-than-chance result discriminating them. In this case, we can infer that both samples originate from different populations. However, many types of models, such as neural networks, behave as a black-box for the user: they can reject that both samples originate from the same population, but they do not offer insight into how both samples differ. Self-Organizing Maps are a dimensionality reduction initially devised as a data visualization tool that displays emergent properties, being also useful for classification tasks. Since they can be used as classifiers, they can be used also as a two-sample statistical test. But since their original purpose is visualization, they can also offer insights.