In this paper, we propose a robust data-driven process model whose hyperparameters are robustly estimated using the Schweppe-type generalized maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed model is trained on recorded time-series data of voltage phasors and power injections to perform a time-series stochastic power flow calculation. Power system data are often corrupted with outliers caused by large errors, fault conditions, power outages, and extreme weather, to name a few. The proposed model downweights vertical outliers and bad leverage points in the measurements of the training dataset. The weights used to bound the influence of the outliers are calculated using projection statistics, which are a robust version of Mahalanobis distances of the time series data points. The proposed method is demonstrated on the IEEE 33-Bus power distribution system and a real-world unbalanced 240-bus power distribution system heavily integrated with renewable energy sources. Our simulation results show that the proposed robust model can handle up to 25% of outliers in the training data set.

Invoking the manifold assumption in machine learning requires knowledge of the manifold's geometry and dimension, and theory dictates how many samples are required. However, in applications data are limited, sampling may not be uniform, and manifold properties are unknown and (possibly) non-pure; this implies that neighborhoods must adapt to the local structure. We introduce an algorithm for inferring adaptive neighborhoods for data given by a similarity kernel. Starting with a locally-conservative neighborhood (Gabriel) graph, we sparsify it iteratively according to a weighted counterpart. In each step, a linear program yields minimal neighborhoods globally and a volumetric statistic reveals neighbor outliers likely to violate manifold geometry. We apply our adaptive neighborhoods to non-linear dimensionality reduction, geodesic computation and dimension estimation. A comparison against standard algorithms using, e.g., k-nearest neighbors, demonstrates their usefulness. Code for our algorithm will be available at https://github.com/dyballa/IAN

The celebrated FedAvg algorithm of McMahan et al. (2017) is based on three components: client sampling (CS), data sampling (DS) and local training (LT). While the first two are reasonably well understood, the third component, whose role is to reduce the number of communication rounds needed to train the model, resisted all attempts at a satisfactory theoretical explanation. Malinovsky et al. (2022) identified four distinct generations of LT methods based on the quality of the provided theoretical communication complexity guarantees. Despite a lot of progress in this area, none of the existing works were able to show that it is theoretically better to employ multiple local gradient-type steps (i.e., to engage in LT) than to rely on a single local gradient-type step only in the important heterogeneous data regime. In a recent breakthrough embodied in their ProxSkip method and its theoretical analysis, Mishchenko et al. (2022) showed that LT indeed leads to provable communication acceleration for arbitrarily heterogeneous data, thus jump-starting the $5^{\rm th}$ generation of LT methods. However, while these latest generation LT methods are compatible with DS, none of them support CS. We resolve this open problem in the affirmative. In order to do so, we had to base our algorithmic development on new algorithmic and theoretical foundations.

There are two seemingly unrelated problems in insurance pricing that we are going to tackle in this paper. First, an insurance pricing system should not have any systematic cross-financing between different price cohorts. Systematic cross-financing implicitly means that some parts of the portfolio are under-priced, and this is compensated by other parts of the portfolio that are over-priced. We can prevent systematic cross-financing between price cohorts by ensuring that the pricing system is auto-calibrated. We propose to apply isotonic recalibration which turns any regression function into an auto-calibrated pricing system.

Here are the key highlights of our approach: first, we speech encoders, for downstream applications that often generate a key-value external knowledge store that maps an audio (a) have fewer labeled training examples, and (b) rapidly evolving representation of each text element of the catalog (usually distributions of speech data. The traditional approach to consisting of 1M-10M examples) to a semantic representation this problem is to frequently collect fresh data, which can be of the text. Next, we train a model that leverages this external used to re-train and specialize models, leveraging tools such store by attending over retrieved key/value pairs, which we as domain-prompts [1], incremental-learning [2], knowledge retrieve through approximate k-nearest neighbors. Relying on distillation [3], hand-written grammars [4], or metric learning an external, constant, and off-policy key-value store means [5, 6] to reduce the impact of re-training the model for the that this store can be updated during specialization, requiring downstream application. Unfortunately, for data that changes only an updated list of phrases for each new model instead of on a rapid basis, such as product listings or applications requiring additional fine-tuning.

Sparse optimization problems are ubiquitous in many fields such as statistics, signal/image processing and machine learning. This has led to the birth of many iterative algorithms to solve them. A powerful strategy to boost the performance of these algorithms is known as safe screening: it allows the early identification of zero coordinates in the solution, which can then be eliminated to reduce the problem's size and accelerate convergence. In this work, we extend the existing Gap Safe screening framework by relaxing the global strong-concavity assumption on the dual cost function. Instead, we exploit local regularity properties, that is, strong concavity on well-chosen subsets of the domain. The non-negativity constraint is also integrated to the existing framework. Besides making safe screening possible to a broader class of functions that includes beta-divergences (e.g., the Kullback-Leibler divergence), the proposed approach also improves upon the existing Gap Safe screening rules on previously applicable cases (e.g., logistic regression). The proposed general framework is exemplified by some notable particular cases: logistic function, beta = 1.5 and Kullback-Leibler divergences. Finally, we showcase the effectiveness of the proposed screening rules with different solvers (coordinate descent, multiplicative-update and proximal gradient algorithms) and different data sets (binary classification, hyperspectral and count data).

The integration of multi-modal data, such as pathological images and genomic data, is essential for understanding cancer heterogeneity and complexity for personalized treatments, as well as for enhancing survival predictions. Despite the progress made in integrating pathology and genomic data, most existing methods cannot mine the complex inter-modality relations thoroughly. Additionally, identifying explainable features from these models that govern preclinical discovery and clinical prediction is crucial for cancer diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic response studies. We propose PONET- a novel biological pathway-informed pathology-genomic deep model that integrates pathological images and genomic data not only to improve survival prediction but also to identify genes and pathways that cause different survival rates in patients. Empirical results on six of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets show that our proposed method achieves superior predictive performance and reveals meaningful biological interpretations. The proposed method establishes insight into how to train biologically informed deep networks on multimodal biomedical data which will have general applicability for understanding diseases and predicting response and resistance to treatment.

Tree-ensemble algorithms, such as random forest, are effective machine learning methods popular for their flexibility, high performance, and robustness to overfitting. However, since multiple learners are combined, they are not as interpretable as a single decision tree. In this work we propose a novel method that is Building Explanations through a LocalLy AccuraTe Rule EXtractor (Bellatrex), and is able to explain the forest prediction for a given test instance with only a few diverse rules. Starting from the decision trees generated by a random forest, our method 1) pre-selects a subset of the rules used to make the prediction, 2) creates a vector representation of such rules, 3) projects them to a low-dimensional space, 4) clusters such representations to pick a rule from each cluster to explain the instance prediction. We test the effectiveness of Bellatrex on 89 real-world datasets and we demonstrate the validity of our method for binary classification, regression, multi-label classification and time-to-event tasks. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that an interpretability toolbox can handle all these tasks within the same framework. We also show that our extracted surrogate model can approximate the performance of the corresponding ensemble model in all considered tasks, while selecting only few trees from the whole forest. We also show that our proposed approach substantially outperforms other explainable methods in terms of predictive performance.

We present a simple neural network that can learn modular arithmetic tasks and exhibits a sudden jump in generalization known as ``grokking''. Concretely, we present (i) fully-connected two-layer networks that exhibit grokking on various modular arithmetic tasks under vanilla gradient descent with the MSE loss function in the absence of any regularization; (ii) evidence that grokking modular arithmetic corresponds to learning specific feature maps whose structure is determined by the task; (iii) analytic expressions for the weights -- and thus for the feature maps -- that solve a large class of modular arithmetic tasks; and (iv) evidence that these feature maps are also found by vanilla gradient descent as well as AdamW, thereby establishing complete interpretability of the representations learnt by the network.

This study presents a general machine learning framework to estimate the traffic-measurement-level experience rate at given throughput values in the form of a Key Performance Indicator for the cells on base stations across various cities, using busy-hour counter data, and several technical parameters together with the network topology. Relying on feature engineering techniques, scores of additional predictors are proposed to enhance the effects of raw correlated counter values over the corresponding targets, and to represent the underlying interactions among groups of cells within nearby spatial locations effectively. An end-to-end regression modeling is applied on the transformed data, with results presented on unseen cities of varying sizes.