Statistical Learning
Building Machine Learning Models Like Open Source Software
Transfer learning--using a machine learning (ML) model that has been pretrained as a starting point for training on a different, but related task--has proven itself as an effective way to make models converge faster to a better solution with less-labeled data. These benefits have led pretrained models to see a staggering amount of reuse; for example, the pretrained BERT model has been downloaded tens of millions of times. Taking a step back, however, reveals a major issue with the development of pretrained models: They are never updated! Instead, after being released, they are typically used as-is until a better pretrained model comes along. There are many reasons to update a pretrained model--for example, to improve its performance, address problematic behavior and biases, or make it applicable to new problems--but there is currently no effective approach for updating models.
Condition monitoring and anomaly detection in cyber-physical systems
Marfo, William, Tosh, Deepak K., Moore, Shirley V.
The modern industrial environment is equipping myriads of smart manufacturing machines where the state of each device can be monitored continuously. Such monitoring can help identify possible future failures and develop a cost-effective maintenance plan. However, it is a daunting task to perform early detection with low false positives and negatives from the huge volume of collected data. This requires developing a holistic machine learning framework to address the issues in condition monitoring of high-priority components and develop efficient techniques to detect anomalies that can detect and possibly localize the faulty components. This paper presents a comparative analysis of recent machine learning approaches for robust, cost-effective anomaly detection in cyber-physical systems. While detection has been extensively studied, very few researchers have analyzed the localization of the anomalies. We show that supervised learning outperforms unsupervised algorithms. For supervised cases, we achieve near-perfect accuracy of 98 percent (specifically for tree-based algorithms). In contrast, the best-case accuracy in the unsupervised cases was 63 percent :the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) exhibits similar outcomes as an additional metric.
A comparison of several AI techniques for authorship attribution on Romanian texts
Avram, Sanda Maria, Oltean, Mihai
Determining the author of a text is a difficult task. Here we compare multiple AI techniques for classifying literary texts written by multiple authors by taking into account a limited number of speech parts (prepositions, adverbs, and conjunctions). We also introduce a new dataset composed of texts written in the Romanian language on which we have run the algorithms. The compared methods are Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Multi Expression Programming, Decision Trees with C5.0, and k-Nearest Neighbour. Numerical experiments show, first of all, that the problem is difficult, but some algorithms are able to generate decent errors on the test set.
SUPER-Net: Trustworthy Medical Image Segmentation with Uncertainty Propagation in Encoder-Decoder Networks
Carannante, Giuseppina, Dera, Dimah, Bouaynaya, Nidhal C., Fathallah-Shaykh, Hassan M., Rasool, Ghulam
Deep Learning (DL) holds great promise in reshaping the healthcare industry owing to its precision, efficiency, and objectivity. However, the brittleness of DL models to noisy and out-of-distribution inputs is ailing their deployment in the clinic. Most models produce point estimates without further information about model uncertainty or confidence. This paper introduces a new Bayesian DL framework for uncertainty quantification in segmentation neural networks: SUPER-Net: trustworthy medical image Segmentation with Uncertainty Propagation in Encoder-decodeR Networks. SUPER-Net analytically propagates, using Taylor series approximations, the first two moments (mean and covariance) of the posterior distribution of the model parameters across the nonlinear layers. In particular, SUPER-Net simultaneously learns the mean and covariance without expensive post-hoc Monte Carlo sampling or model ensembling. The output consists of two simultaneous maps: the segmented image and its pixelwise uncertainty map, which corresponds to the covariance matrix of the predictive distribution. We conduct an extensive evaluation of SUPER-Net on medical image segmentation of Magnetic Resonances Imaging and Computed Tomography scans under various noisy and adversarial conditions. Our experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that SUPER-Net is more robust to noise and adversarial attacks than state-of-the-art segmentation models. Moreover, the uncertainty map of the proposed SUPER-Net associates low confidence (or equivalently high uncertainty) to patches in the test input images that are corrupted with noise, artifacts, or adversarial attacks. Perhaps more importantly, the model exhibits the ability of self-assessment of its segmentation decisions, notably when making erroneous predictions due to noise or adversarial examples.
Computational Solar Energy -- Ensemble Learning Methods for Prediction of Solar Power Generation based on Meteorological Parameters in Eastern India
Chakraborty, Debojyoti, Mondal, Jayeeta, Barua, Hrishav Bakul, Bhattacharjee, Ankur
The challenges in applications of solar energy lies in its intermittency and dependency on meteorological parameters such as; solar radiation, ambient temperature, rainfall, wind-speed etc., and many other physical parameters like dust accumulation etc. Hence, it is important to estimate the amount of solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation for a specific geographical location. Machine learning (ML) models have gained importance and are widely used for prediction of solar power plant performance. In this paper, the impact of weather parameters on solar PV power generation is estimated by several Ensemble ML (EML) models like Bagging, Boosting, Stacking, and Voting for the first time. The performance of chosen ML algorithms is validated by field dataset of a 10kWp solar PV power plant in Eastern India region. Furthermore, a complete test-bed framework has been designed for data mining as well as to select appropriate learning models. It also supports feature selection and reduction for dataset to reduce space and time complexity of the learning models. The results demonstrate greater prediction accuracy of around 96% for Stacking and Voting EML models. The proposed work is a generalized one and can be very useful for predicting the performance of large-scale solar PV power plants also.
Critic Sequential Monte Carlo
Lioutas, Vasileios, Lavington, Jonathan Wilder, Sefas, Justice, Niedoba, Matthew, Liu, Yunpeng, Zwartsenberg, Berend, Dabiri, Setareh, Wood, Frank, Scibior, Adam
We introduce CriticSMC, a new algorithm for planning as inference built from a composition of sequential Monte Carlo with learned Soft-Q function heuristic factors. These heuristic factors, obtained from parametric approximations of the marginal likelihood ahead, more effectively guide SMC towards the desired target distribution, which is particularly helpful for planning in environments with hard constraints placed sparsely in time. Compared with previous work, we modify the placement of such heuristic factors, which allows us to cheaply propose and evaluate large numbers of putative action particles, greatly increasing inference and planning efficiency. CriticSMC is compatible with informative priors, whose density function need not be known, and can be used as a model-free control algorithm. Our experiments on collision avoidance in a high-dimensional simulated driving task show that CriticSMC significantly reduces collision rates at a low computational cost while maintaining realism and diversity of driving behaviors across vehicles and environment scenarios.
The Conditional Cauchy-Schwarz Divergence with Applications to Time-Series Data and Sequential Decision Making
Yu, Shujian, Li, Hongming, Løkse, Sigurd, Jenssen, Robert, Príncipe, José C.
The Cauchy-Schwarz (CS) divergence was developed by Pr\'{i}ncipe et al. in 2000. In this paper, we extend the classic CS divergence to quantify the closeness between two conditional distributions and show that the developed conditional CS divergence can be simply estimated by a kernel density estimator from given samples. We illustrate the advantages (e.g., the rigorous faithfulness guarantee, the lower computational complexity, the higher statistical power, and the much more flexibility in a wide range of applications) of our conditional CS divergence over previous proposals, such as the conditional KL divergence and the conditional maximum mean discrepancy. We also demonstrate the compelling performance of conditional CS divergence in two machine learning tasks related to time series data and sequential inference, namely the time series clustering and the uncertainty-guided exploration for sequential decision making.
Performance Study of YOLOv5 and Faster R-CNN for Autonomous Navigation around Non-Cooperative Targets
Mahendrakar, Trupti, Ekblad, Andrew, Fischer, Nathan, White, Ryan T., Wilde, Markus, Kish, Brian, Silver, Isaac
Autonomous navigation and path-planning around non-cooperative space objects is an enabling technology for on-orbit servicing and space debris removal systems. The navigation task includes the determination of target object motion, the identification of target object features suitable for grasping, and the identification of collision hazards and other keep-out zones. Given this knowledge, chaser spacecraft can be guided towards capture locations without damaging the target object or without unduly the operations of a servicing target by covering up solar arrays or communication antennas. One way to autonomously achieve target identification, characterization and feature recognition is by use of artificial intelligence algorithms. This paper discusses how the combination of cameras and machine learning algorithms can achieve the relative navigation task. The performance of two deep learning-based object detection algorithms, Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks (R-CNN) and You Only Look Once (YOLOv5), is tested using experimental data obtained in formation flight simulations in the ORION Lab at Florida Institute of Technology. The simulation scenarios vary the yaw motion of the target object, the chaser approach trajectory, and the lighting conditions in order to test the algorithms in a wide range of realistic and performance limiting situations. The data analyzed include the mean average precision metrics in order to compare the performance of the object detectors. The paper discusses the path to implementing the feature recognition algorithms and towards integrating them into the spacecraft Guidance Navigation and Control system.
A Survey on Distributed Online Optimization and Game
Li, Xiuxian, Xie, Lihua, Li, Na
Distributed online optimization and game have been increasingly researched in the last decade, mostly motivated by its wide applications in sensor networks, robotics (e.g., distributed target tracking and formation control), smart grids, deep learning, and so forth. In these problems, there is a network of agents who may be cooperative (i.e., distributed online optimization) or noncooperative (i.e., online game) through local information exchanges. And the local cost function of each agent is often time-varying in dynamic and even adversarial environments. At each time, a decision must be made by each agent based on historical information at hand without knowing future information on cost functions. For these problems, a comprehensive survey is still lacking. This paper aims to provide a thorough overview of distributed online optimization and game from the perspective of problem settings, communication, computation, algorithms, and performances. In addition, some potential future directions are also discussed.