I measure adaptation to climate change by comparing elasticities from short-run and long-run changes in damaging weather. I propose a debiased machine learning approach to flexibly measure these elasticities in panel settings. In a simulation exercise, I show that debiased machine learning has considerable benefits relative to standard machine learning or ordinary least squares, particularly in high-dimensional settings. I then measure adaptation to damaging heat exposure in United States corn and soy production. Using rich sets of temperature and precipitation variation, I find evidence that short-run impacts from damaging heat are significantly offset in the long run. I show that this is because the impacts of long-run changes in heat exposure do not follow the same functional form as short-run shocks to heat exposure.

We introduce a new stochastic algorithm for solving entropic optimal transport (EOT) between two absolutely continuous probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$. Our work is motivated by the specific setting of Monge-Kantorovich quantiles where the source measure $\mu$ is either the uniform distribution on the unit hypercube or the spherical uniform distribution. Using the knowledge of the source measure, we propose to parametrize a Kantorovich dual potential by its Fourier coefficients. In this way, each iteration of our stochastic algorithm reduces to two Fourier transforms that enables us to make use of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) in order to implement a fast numerical method to solve EOT. We study the almost sure convergence of our stochastic algorithm that takes its values in an infinite-dimensional Banach space. Then, using numerical experiments, we illustrate the performances of our approach on the computation of regularized Monge-Kantorovich quantiles. In particular, we investigate the potential benefits of entropic regularization for the smooth estimation of multivariate quantiles using data sampled from the target measure $\nu$.

Federated Learning (FL) is a novel paradigm for training supervised machine learning models. Initiated a few years ago in several foundational papers (Konečný et al., 2016a,b; McMahan et al., 2017; Bonawitz et al., 2017), it has become a rapidly growing interdisciplinary field. The key idea is to exploit the wealth of information stored on edge devices, such as mobile phones, sensors and hospital workstations, to train global models, in a collaborative way, while handling a multitude of challenges, like data privacy concerns (Kairouz et al., 2021; Li et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021). In contrast to centralized learning in a datacenter, in FL, the parallel computing units have private data stored on each of them and communicate with a distant orchestrating server, which aggregates the information and synchronizes the computations, so that the process reaches a consensus and converges to a globally optimal model. In this framework, communication between the parallel workers and the server, which can take place over the internet or cell phone network, can be slow, costly, and unreliable. Thus, communication dominates the overall time cost of the process and is the main bottleneck to be addressed by the community, before FL can be widely adopted and applied in our daily lives. The baseline algorithm of distributed Gradient Descent (GD) alternates between two steps: one round of parallel computation of the local function gradients at the current model estimate, and one round of communication of these gradient vectors to the server, which averages them to form the new estimate for the next iteration. To decrease the communication load, two strategies can be used: 1) communicate less frequently, or equivalently do more local computations between successive communication rounds; or 2) compress the communicated vectors.

In this work, we propose a deep learning approach to forecasting state-level COVID-19 trends of weekly cumulative death in the United States (US) and incident cases in Germany. This approach includes a transformer model, an ensemble method, and a data augmentation technique for time series. We arrange the inputs of the transformer in such a way that predictions for different states can attend to the trends of the others. To overcome the issue of scarcity of training data for this COVID-19 pandemic, we have developed a novel data augmentation technique to generate useful data for training. More importantly, the generated data can also be used for model validation. As such, it has a two-fold advantage: 1) more actual observations can be used for training, and 2) the model can be validated on data which has distribution closer to the expected situation. Our model has achieved some of the best state-level results on the COVID-19 Forecast Hub for the US and for Germany.

In this work, we provide a literature review of active learning (AL) for its applications in natural language processing (NLP). In addition to a fine-grained categorization of query strategies, we also investigate several other important aspects of applying AL to NLP problems. These include AL for structured prediction tasks, annotation cost, model learning (especially Figure 1: Counts of AL (left) and "neural" (right) papers with deep neural models), and starting in the ACL Anthology over the past twenty years.

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the discounted cumulative reward following a given target policy with an offline dataset collected from another (possibly unknown) behavior policy. OPE is important in situations where it is impractical or too costly to directly evaluate the target policy via online experimentation, including robotics (Quillen et al., 2018), precision medicine (Murphy, 2003; Kosorok and Laber, 2019; Tsiatis et al., 2019), economics, quantitative social science (Abadie and Cattaneo, 2018), recommendation systems (Li et al., 2010; Kiyohara et al., 2022), etc. Despite a large body of literature on OPE (see Section 2 for detailed discussions), many of them rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounders (NUC), excluding the existence of unobserved variables that could potentially confound either the action-reward or action-next-state pair. This assumption, however, can be violated in some real-world applications such as healthcare and technological industries. Our paper is partly motivated by the need to evaluate the long-term treatment effects of certain app download ads from a short-video platform.

Dynamic graphs are rich data structures that are used to model complex relationships between entities over time. In particular, anomaly detection in temporal graphs is crucial for many real world applications such as intrusion identification in network systems, detection of ecosystem disturbances and detection of epidemic outbreaks. In this paper, we focus on change point detection in dynamic graphs and address three main challenges associated with this problem: i). how to compare graph snapshots across time, ii). how to capture temporal dependencies, and iii). how to combine different views of a temporal graph. To solve the above challenges, we first propose Laplacian Anomaly Detection (LAD) which uses the spectrum of graph Laplacian as the low dimensional embedding of the graph structure at each snapshot. LAD explicitly models short term and long term dependencies by applying two sliding windows. Next, we propose MultiLAD, a simple and effective generalization of LAD to multi-view graphs. MultiLAD provides the first change point detection method for multi-view dynamic graphs. It aggregates the singular values of the normalized graph Laplacian from different views through the scalar power mean operation. Through extensive synthetic experiments, we show that i). LAD and MultiLAD are accurate and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and their multi-view extensions by a large margin, ii). MultiLAD's advantage over contenders significantly increases when additional views are available, and iii). MultiLAD is highly robust to noise from individual views. In five real world dynamic graphs, we demonstrate that LAD and MultiLAD identify significant events as top anomalies such as the implementation of government COVID-19 interventions which impacted the population mobility in multi-view traffic networks.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a highly promising method for mitigating the computational problems of pre-trained language models (PLMs). Among various KD approaches, Intermediate Layer Distillation (ILD) has been a de facto standard KD method with its performance efficacy in the NLP field. In this paper, we find that existing ILD methods are prone to overfitting to training datasets, although these methods transfer more information than the original KD. Next, we present the simple observations to mitigate the overfitting of ILD: distilling only the last Transformer layer and conducting ILD on supplementary tasks. Based on our two findings, we propose a simple yet effective consistency-regularized ILD (CR-ILD), which prevents the student model from overfitting the training dataset. Substantial experiments on distilling BERT on the GLUE benchmark and several synthetic datasets demonstrate that our proposed ILD method outperforms other KD techniques. Our code is available at https://github.com/jongwooko/CR-ILD.

Blackwell's celebrated approachability theory provides a general framework for a variety of learning problems, including regret minimization. However, Blackwell's proof and implicit algorithm measure approachability using the $\ell_2$ (Euclidean) distance. We argue that in many applications such as regret minimization, it is more useful to study approachability under other distance metrics, most commonly the $\ell_\infty$-metric. But, the time and space complexity of the algorithms designed for $\ell_\infty$-approachability depend on the dimension of the space of the vectorial payoffs, which is often prohibitively large. Thus, we present a framework for converting high-dimensional $\ell_\infty$-approachability problems to low-dimensional pseudonorm approachability problems, thereby resolving such issues. We first show that the $\ell_\infty$-distance between the average payoff and the approachability set can be equivalently defined as a pseudodistance between a lower-dimensional average vector payoff and a new convex set we define. Next, we develop an algorithmic theory of pseudonorm approachability, analogous to previous work on approachability for $\ell_2$ and other norms, showing that it can be achieved via online linear optimization (OLO) over a convex set given by the Fenchel dual of the unit pseudonorm ball. We then use that to show, modulo mild normalization assumptions, that there exists an $\ell_\infty$-approachability algorithm whose convergence is independent of the dimension of the original vectorial payoff. We further show that that algorithm admits a polynomial-time complexity, assuming that the original $\ell_\infty$-distance can be computed efficiently. We also give an $\ell_\infty$-approachability algorithm whose convergence is logarithmic in that dimension using an FTRL algorithm with a maximum-entropy regularizer.

The Computer-aided Diagnosis or Detection (CAD) approach for skin lesion analysis is an emerging field of research that has the potential to alleviate the burden and cost of skin cancer screening. Researchers have recently indicated increasing interest in developing such CAD systems, with the intention of providing a user-friendly tool to dermatologists to reduce the challenges encountered or associated with manual inspection. This article aims to provide a comprehensive literature survey and review of a total of 594 publications (356 for skin lesion segmentation and 238 for skin lesion classification) published between 2011 and 2022. These articles are analyzed and summarized in a number of different ways to contribute vital information regarding the methods for the development of CAD systems. These ways include relevant and essential definitions and theories, input data (dataset utilization, preprocessing, augmentations, and fixing imbalance problems), method configuration (techniques, architectures, module frameworks, and losses), training tactics (hyperparameter settings), and evaluation criteria. We intend to investigate a variety of performance-enhancing approaches, including ensemble and post-processing. We also discuss these dimensions to reveal their current trends based on utilization frequencies. In addition, we highlight the primary difficulties associated with evaluating skin lesion segmentation and classification systems using minimal datasets, as well as the potential solutions to these difficulties. Findings, recommendations, and trends are disclosed to inform future research on developing an automated and robust CAD system for skin lesion analysis.