We provide sharp path-dependent generalization and excess risk guarantees for the full-batch Gradient Descent (GD) algorithm on smooth losses (possibly non-Lipschitz, possibly nonconvex). At the heart of our analysis is an upper bound on the generalization error, which implies that average output stability and a bounded expected optimization error at termination lead to generalization. This result shows that a small generalization error occurs along the optimization path, and allows us to bypass Lipschitz or sub-Gaussian assumptions on the loss prevalent in previous works. For nonconvex, convex, and strongly convex losses, we show the explicit dependence of the generalization error in terms of the accumulated path-dependent optimization error, terminal optimization error, number of samples, and number of iterations. For nonconvex smooth losses, we prove that full-batch GD efficiently generalizes close to any stationary point at termination, and recovers the generalization error guarantees of stochastic algorithms with fewer assumptions. For smooth convex losses, we show that the generalization error is tighter than existing bounds for SGD (up to one order of error magnitude). Consequently the excess risk matches that of SGD for quadratically less iterations. Lastly, for strongly convex smooth losses, we show that full-batch GD achieves essentially the same excess risk rate as compared with the state of the art on SGD, but with an exponentially smaller number of iterations (logarithmic in the dataset size).

We report an improvement to the conventional Echo State Network (ESN) across three benchmark chaotic time-series prediction tasks using fruit fly connectome data alone. We also investigate the impact of key connectome-derived structural features on prediction performance -- uniquely bridging neurobiological structure and machine learning function; and find that both increasing the global average clustering coefficient and modifying the position of weights -- by permuting their synapse-synapse partners -- can lead to increased model variance and (in some cases) degraded performance. In all we consider four topological point modifications to a connectome-derived ESN reservoir (null model): namely, we alter the network sparsity, re-draw nonzero weights from a uniform distribution, permute nonzero weight positions, and increase the network global average clustering coefficient. We compare the four resulting ESN model classes -- and the null model -- with a conventional ESN by conducting time-series prediction experiments on size-variants of the Mackey-Glass 17 (MG-17), Lorenz, and Rossler chaotic time series; denoting each model's performance and variance across train-validate trials.

Instrumental variables (IV) have become standard tools for economists, epidemiologists, and social scientists to uncover causal relationships from observational data [3, 46]. Randomization of treatments or policies has been perceived as the gold standard for such tasks, but is generally prohibitive in many real-world scenarios due to time constraints or ethical concerns. When treatment assignment is not randomized, it is generally impossible to discern between the causal effect of treatments and spurious correlations that are induced by unobserved factors. Instead, IVs enable the investigators to incorporate natural variation through an IV that is associated with the treatments, but not with the outcome variable, other than through its effect on the treatments. In economics, for instance, the season-of-birth was used as an IV to study the return from schooling, which measures causal effect of education on labor market earning [16]. In genetic epidemiology, the idea to use genetic variants as IVs, known as Mendelian randomization, has also gained increasing popularity [13, 14].

The goal of this study is to assess the feasibility of airway geometry as a biomarker for ASD. Chest CT images of children with a documented diagnosis of ASD as well as healthy controls were identified retrospectively. 54 scans were obtained for analysis, including 31 ASD cases and 23 age and sex-matched controls. A feature selection and classification procedure using principal component analysis (PCA) and support vector machine (SVM) achieved a peak cross validation accuracy of nearly 89% using a feature set of 8 airway branching angles. Sensitivity was 94%, but specificity was only 78%. The results suggest a measurable difference in airway branchpoint angles between children with ASD and the control population. Under review at Scientific Reports

This paper investigates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) application for self-supervised network intrusion and anomaly detection. GNNs are a deep learning approach for graph-based data that incorporate graph structures into learning to generalise graph representations and output embeddings. As network flows are naturally graph-based, GNNs are a suitable fit for analysing and learning network behaviour. The majority of current implementations of GNN-based Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) rely heavily on labelled network traffic which can not only restrict the amount and structure of input traffic, but also the NIDSs potential to adapt to unseen attacks. To overcome these restrictions, we present Anomal-E, a GNN approach to intrusion and anomaly detection that leverages edge features and graph topological structure in a self-supervised process. This approach is, to the best our knowledge, the first successful and practical approach to network intrusion detection that utilises network flows in a self-supervised, edge leveraging GNN. Experimental results on two modern benchmark NIDS datasets not only clearly display the improvement of using Anomal-E embeddings rather than raw features, but also the potential Anomal-E has for detection on wild network traffic.

We propose a method for 3D shape reconstruction from unoriented point clouds. Our method consists of a novel SE(3)-equivariant coordinate-based network (TF-ONet), that parametrizes the occupancy field of the shape and respects the inherent symmetries of the problem. In contrast to previous shape reconstruction methods that align the input to a regular grid, we operate directly on the irregular point cloud. Our architecture leverages equivariant attention layers that operate on local tokens. This mechanism enables local shape modelling, a crucial property for scalability to large scenes. Given an unoriented, sparse, noisy point cloud as input, we produce equivariant features for each point. These serve as keys and values for the subsequent equivariant cross-attention blocks that parametrize the occupancy field. By querying an arbitrary point in space, we predict its occupancy score. We show that our method outperforms previous SO(3)-equivariant methods, as well as non-equivariant methods trained on SO(3)-augmented datasets. More importantly, local modelling together with SE(3)-equivariance create an ideal setting for SE(3) scene reconstruction. We show that by training only on single, aligned objects and without any pre-segmentation, we can reconstruct novel scenes containing arbitrarily many objects in random poses without any performance loss.

Off-policy evaluation is critical in a number of applications where new policies need to be evaluated offline before online deployment. Most existing methods focus on the expected return, define the target parameter through averaging and provide a point estimator only. In this paper, we develop a novel procedure to produce reliable interval estimators for a target policy's return starting from any initial state. Our proposal accounts for the variability of the return around its expectation, focuses on the individual effect and offers valid uncertainty quantification. Our main idea lies in designing a pseudo policy that generates subsamples as if they were sampled from the target policy so that existing conformal prediction algorithms are applicable to prediction interval construction. Our methods are justified by theories, synthetic data and real data from short-video platforms.

Proponents of explainable AI have often argued that it constitutes an essential path towards algorithmic fairness. Prior works examining these claims have primarily evaluated explanations based on their effects on humans' perceptions, but there is scant research on the relationship between explanations and distributive fairness of AI-assisted decisions. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to examine the relationship between feature-based explanations and distributive fairness, mediated by human perceptions and reliance on AI recommendations. Our findings show that explanations influence fairness perceptions, which, in turn, relate to humans' tendency to adhere to AI recommendations. However, our findings suggest that such explanations do not enable humans to discern correct and wrong AI recommendations. Instead, we show that they may affect reliance irrespective of the correctness of AI recommendations. Depending on which features an explanation highlights, this can foster or hinder distributive fairness: when explanations highlight features that are task-irrelevant and evidently associated with the sensitive attribute, this prompts overrides that counter stereotype-aligned AI recommendations. Meanwhile, if explanations appear task-relevant, this induces reliance behavior that reinforces stereotype-aligned errors. These results show that feature-based explanations are not a reliable mechanism to improve distributive fairness, as their ability to do so relies on a human-in-the-loop operationalization of the flawed notion of "fairness through unawareness". Finally, our study design provides a blueprint to evaluate the suitability of other explanations as pathways towards improved distributive fairness of AI-assisted decisions.

The success of pre-trained contextualized representations has prompted researchers to analyze them for the presence of linguistic information. Indeed, it is natural to assume that these pre-trained representations do encode some level of linguistic knowledge as they have brought about large empirical improvements on a wide variety of NLP tasks, which suggests they are learning true linguistic generalization. In this work, we focus on intrinsic probing, an analysis technique where the goal is not only to identify whether a representation encodes a linguistic attribute but also to pinpoint where this attribute is encoded. We propose a novel latent-variable formulation for constructing intrinsic probes and derive a tractable variational approximation to the log-likelihood. Our results show that our model is versatile and yields tighter mutual information estimates than two intrinsic probes previously proposed in the literature. Finally, we find empirical evidence that pre-trained representations develop a cross-lingually entangled notion of morphosyntax.

High-quality education is one of the keys to achieving a more sustainable world. In contrast to traditional face-to-face classroom education, online education enables us to record and research a large amount of learning data for offering intelligent educational services. Knowledge Tracing (KT), which aims to monitor students' evolving knowledge state in learning, is the fundamental task to support these intelligent services. In recent years, an increasing amount of research is focused on this emerging field and considerable progress has been made. In this survey, we categorize existing KT models from a technical perspective and investigate these models in a systematic manner. Subsequently, we review abundant variants of KT models that consider more strict learning assumptions from three phases: before, during, and after learning. To better facilitate researchers and practitioners working on this field, we open source two algorithm libraries: EduData for downloading and preprocessing KT-related datasets, and EduKTM with extensible and unified implementation of existing mainstream KT models. Moreover, the development of KT cannot be separated from its applications, therefore we further present typical KT applications in different scenarios. Finally, we discuss some potential directions for future research in this fast-growing field.