Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

We describe SynGraphy, a method for visually summarising the structure of large network datasets that works by drawing smaller graphs generated to have similar structural properties to the input graphs. Visualising complex networks is crucial to understand and make sense of networked data and the relationships it represents. Due to the large size of many networks, visualisation is extremely difficult; the simple method of drawing large networks like those of Facebook or Twitter leads to graphics that convey little or no information. While modern graph layout algorithms can scale computationally to large networks, their output tends to a common "hairball" look, which makes it difficult to even distinguish different graphs from each other. Graph sampling and graph coarsening techniques partially address these limitations but they are only able to preserve a subset of the properties of the original graphs. In this paper we take the problem of visualising large graphs from a novel perspective: we leave the original graph's nodes and edges behind, and instead summarise its properties such as the clustering coefficient and bipartivity by generating a completely new graph whose structural properties match that of the original graph. To verify the utility of this approach as compared to other graph visualisation algorithms, we perform an experimental evaluation in which we repeatedly asked experimental subjects (professionals in graph mining and related areas) to determine which of two given graphs has a given structural property and then assess which visualisation algorithm helped in identifying the correct answer. Our summarisation approach SynGraphy compares favourably to other techniques on a variety of networks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from January 2020 to December 2022 across 25 European countries. We adopt a Bayesian Mixed Effects model with auto-regressive terms. We find that increases in disease transmission intensity decreases Gross domestic product (GDP) and increases daily excess deaths, with a longer lasting impact on excess deaths in comparison to GDP, which recovers more rapidly. Broadly, our results reinforce the intuitive phenomenon that significant economic activity arises from diverse person-to-person interactions. We report on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission intensity, excess deaths, and changes in GDP, and resulting implications for policy makers. Our results highlight a complex cost-benefit trade off from individual NPIs. For example, banning international travel increases GDP and reduces excess deaths. We consider country random effects and their associations with excess changes in GDP and excess deaths. For example, more developed countries in Europe typically had more cautious approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic, prioritising healthcare, and excess deaths over economic performance. Long term economic impairments are not fully captured by our model, as well as long term disease effects (Long Covid). Our results highlight that the impact of disease on a country is complex and multifaceted, and simple heuristic conclusions to extract the best outcome from the economy and disease burden are challenging.

Selecting the number of topics in LDA models is considered to be a difficult task, for which alternative approaches have been proposed. The performance of the recently developed singular Bayesian information criterion (sBIC) is evaluated and compared to the performance of alternative model selection criteria. The sBIC is a generalization of the standard BIC that can be implemented to singular statistical models. The comparison is based on Monte Carlo simulations and carried out for several alternative settings, varying with respect to the number of topics, the number of documents and the size of documents in the corpora. Performance is measured using different criteria which take into account the correct number of topics, but also whether the relevant topics from the DGPs are identified. Practical recommendations for LDA model selection in applications are derived.

Meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) aims to quickly solve new tasks by leveraging knowledge from prior tasks. However, previous studies often assume a single mode homogeneous task distribution, ignoring possible structured heterogeneity among tasks. Leveraging such structures can better facilitate knowledge sharing among related tasks and thus improve sample efficiency. In this paper, we explore the structured heterogeneity among tasks via clustering to improve meta-RL. We develop a dedicated exploratory policy to discover task structures via divide-and-conquer. The knowledge of the identified clusters helps to narrow the search space of task-specific information, leading to more sample efficient policy adaptation. Experiments on various MuJoCo tasks showed the proposed method can unravel cluster structures effectively in both rewards and state dynamics, proving strong advantages against a set of state-of-the-art baselines.

Bias in machine learning has rightly received significant attention over the last decade. However, most fair machine learning (fair-ML) work to address bias in decision-making systems has focused solely on the offline setting. Despite the wide prevalence of online systems in the real world, work on identifying and correcting bias in the online setting is severely lacking. The unique challenges of the online environment make addressing bias more difficult than in the offline setting. First, Streaming Machine Learning (SML) algorithms must deal with the constantly evolving real-time data stream. Second, they need to adapt to changing data distributions (concept drift) to make accurate predictions on new incoming data. Adding fairness constraints to this already complicated task is not straightforward. In this work, we focus on the challenges of achieving fairness in biased data streams while accounting for the presence of concept drift, accessing one sample at a time. We present Fair Sampling over Stream ($FS^2$), a novel fair rebalancing approach capable of being integrated with SML classification algorithms. Furthermore, we devise the first unified performance-fairness metric, Fairness Bonded Utility (FBU), to evaluate and compare the trade-off between performance and fairness of different bias mitigation methods efficiently. FBU simplifies the comparison of fairness-performance trade-offs of multiple techniques through one unified and intuitive evaluation, allowing model designers to easily choose a technique. Overall, extensive evaluations show our measures surpass those of other fair online techniques previously reported in the literature.

Open audio databases such as Xeno-Canto are widely used to build datasets to explore bird song repertoire or to train models for automatic bird sound classification by deep learning algorithms. However, such databases suffer from the fact that bird sounds are weakly labelled: a species name is attributed to each audio recording without timestamps that provide the temporal localization of the bird song of interest. Manual annotations can solve this issue, but they are time consuming, expert-dependent, and cannot run on large datasets. Another solution consists in using a labelling function that automatically segments audio recordings before assigning a label to each segmented audio sample. Although labelling functions were introduced to expedite strong label assignment, their classification performance remains mostly unknown. To address this issue and reduce label noise (wrong label assignment) in large bird song datasets, we introduce a data-centric novel labelling function composed of three successive steps: 1) time-frequency sound unit segmentation, 2) feature computation for each sound unit, and 3) classification of each sound unit as bird song or noise with either an unsupervised DBSCAN algorithm or the supervised BirdNET neural network. The labelling function was optimized, validated, and tested on the songs of 44 West-Palearctic common bird species. We first showed that the segmentation of bird songs alone aggregated from 10% to 83% of label noise depending on the species. We also demonstrated that our labelling function was able to significantly reduce the initial label noise present in the dataset by up to a factor of three. Finally, we discuss different opportunities to design suitable labelling functions to build high-quality animal vocalizations with minimum expert annotation effort.

We propose a new Reject Option Classification technique to identify and remove regions of uncertainty in the decision space for a given neural classifier and dataset. Such existing formulations employ a learned rejection (remove)/selection (keep) function and require either a known cost for rejecting examples or strong constraints on the accuracy or coverage of the selected examples. We consider an alternative formulation by instead analyzing the complementary reject region and employing a validation set to learn per-class softmax thresholds. The goal is to maximize the accuracy of the selected examples subject to a natural randomness allowance on the rejected examples (rejecting more incorrect than correct predictions). We provide results showing the benefits of the proposed method over na\"ively thresholding calibrated/uncalibrated softmax scores with 2-D points, imagery, and text classification datasets using state-of-the-art pretrained models. Source code is available at https://github.com/osu-cvl/learning-idk.

Recipe personalization through ingredient substitution has the potential to help people meet their dietary needs and preferences, avoid potential allergens, and ease culinary exploration in everyone's kitchen. To address ingredient substitution, we build a benchmark, composed of a dataset of substitution pairs with standardized splits, evaluation metrics, and baselines. We further introduce Graph-based Ingredient Substitution Module (GISMo), a novel model that leverages the context of a recipe as well as generic ingredient relational information encoded within a graph to rank plausible substitutions. We show through comprehensive experimental validation that GISMo surpasses the best performing baseline by a large margin in terms of mean reciprocal rank. Finally, we highlight the benefits of GISMo by integrating it in an improved image-to-recipe generation pipeline, enabling recipe personalization through user intervention. Quantitative and qualitative results show the efficacy of our proposed system, paving the road towards truly personalized cooking and tasting experiences.

Facial nerve paresis is a severe complication that arises post-head and neck surgery; This results in articulation problems, facial asymmetry, and severe problems in non-verbal communication. To overcome the side effects of post-surgery facial paralysis, rehabilitation requires which last for several weeks. This paper discusses an unsupervised approach to rehabilitating patients who have temporary facial paralysis due to damage in mimetic muscles. The work aims to make the rehabilitation process objective compared to the current subjective approach, such as House-Brackmann (HB) scale. Also, the approach will assist clinicians by reducing their workload in assessing the improvement during rehabilitation. This paper focuses on the clustering approach to monitor the rehabilitation process. We compare the results obtained from different clustering algorithms on various forms of the same data set, namely dynamic form, data expressed as functional data using B-spline basis expansion, and by finding the functional principal components of the functional data. The study contains data set of 85 distinct patients with 120 measurements obtained using a Kinect stereo-vision camera. The method distinguish effectively between patients with the least and greatest degree of facial paralysis, however patients with adjacent degrees of paralysis provide some challenges. In addition, we compared the cluster results to the HB scale outputs.