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 Statistical Learning


Impact of a Batter in ODI Cricket Implementing Regression Models from Match Commentary

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.


Error Estimation for Random Fourier Features

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Random Fourier Features (RFF) is among the most popular and broadly applicable approaches for scaling up kernel methods. In essence, RFF allows the user to avoid costly computations on a large kernel matrix via a fast randomized approximation. However, a pervasive difficulty in applying RFF is that the user does not know the actual error of the approximation, or how this error will propagate into downstream learning tasks. Up to now, the RFF literature has primarily dealt with these uncertainties using theoretical error bounds, but from a user's standpoint, such results are typically impractical -- either because they are highly conservative or involve unknown quantities. To tackle these general issues in a data-driven way, this paper develops a bootstrap approach to numerically estimate the errors of RFF approximations. Three key advantages of this approach are: (1) The error estimates are specific to the problem at hand, avoiding the pessimism of worst-case bounds. (2) The approach is flexible with respect to different uses of RFF, and can even estimate errors in downstream learning tasks. (3) The approach enables adaptive computation, so that the user can quickly inspect the error of a rough initial kernel approximation and then predict how much extra work is needed. Lastly, in exchange for all of these benefits, the error estimates can be obtained at a modest computational cost.


BUAA_BIGSCity: Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Wind Power Forecasting in Baidu KDD CUP 2022

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this technical report, we present our solution for the Baidu KDD Cup 2022 Spatial Dynamic Wind Power Forecasting Challenge. Wind power is a rapidly growing source of clean energy. Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for grid stability and the security of supply. Therefore, organizers provide a wind power dataset containing historical data from 134 wind turbines and launch the Baidu KDD Cup 2022 to examine the limitations of current methods for wind power forecasting. The average of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is used as the evaluation score. We adopt two spatial-temporal graph neural network models, i.e., AGCRN and MTGNN, as our basic models. We train AGCRN by 5-fold cross-validation and additionally train MTGNN directly on the training and validation sets. Finally, we ensemble the two models based on the loss values of the validation set as our final submission. Using our method, our team \team achieves -45.36026 on the test set. We release our codes on Github (https://github.com/BUAABIGSCity/KDDCUP2022) for reproduction.


A Faster Sampler for Discrete Determinantal Point Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discrete Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) have a wide array of potential applications for subsampling datasets. They are however held back in some cases by the high cost of sampling. In the worst-case scenario, the sampling cost scales as O(n^3) where n is the number of elements of the ground set. A popular workaround to this prohibitive cost is to sample DPPs defined by low-rank kernels. In such cases, the cost of standard sampling algorithms scales as O(np^2 + nm^2) where m is the (average) number of samples of the DPP (usually m << n) and p the rank of the kernel used to define the DPP (m \leq p \leq n). The first term, O(np^2), comes from a SVD-like step. We focus here on the second term of this cost, O(nm^2), and show that it can be brought down to O(nm + m^3 log m) without loss on the sampling's exactness. In practice, we observe very substantial speedups compared to the classical algorithm as soon as n > 1000. The algorithm described here is a close variant of the standard algorithm for sampling continuous DPPs, and uses rejection sampling. In the specific case of projection DPPs, we also show that any additional sample can be drawn in time O(m^3 log m). Finally, an interesting by-product of the analysis is that a realisation from a DPP is typically contained in a subset of size O(m log m) formed using leverage score i.i.d. sampling.


Embeddings for Tabular Data: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tabular data comprising rows (samples) with the same set of columns (attributes, is one of the most widely used data-type among various industries, including financial services, health care, research, retail, and logistics, to name a few. Tables are becoming the natural way of storing data among various industries and academia. The data stored in these tables serve as an essential source of information for making various decisions. As computational power and internet connectivity increase, the data stored by these companies grow exponentially, and not only do the databases become vast and challenging to maintain and operate, but the quantity of database tasks also increases. Thus a new line of research work has been started, which applies various learning techniques to support various database tasks for such large and complex tables. In this work, we split the quest of learning on tabular data into two phases: The Classical Learning Phase and The Modern Machine Learning Phase. The classical learning phase consists of the models such as SVMs, linear and logistic regression, and tree-based methods. These models are best suited for small-size tables. However, the number of tasks these models can address is limited to classification and regression. In contrast, the Modern Machine Learning Phase contains models that use deep learning for learning latent space representation of table entities. The objective of this survey is to scrutinize the varied approaches used by practitioners to learn representation for the structured data, and to compare their efficacy.


nSimplex Zen: A Novel Dimensionality Reduction for Euclidean and Hilbert Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dimensionality reduction techniques map values from a high dimensional space to one with a lower dimension. The result is a space which requires less physical memory and has a faster distance calculation. These techniques are widely used where required properties of the reduced-dimension space give an acceptable accuracy with respect to the original space. Many such transforms have been described. They have been classified in two main groups: linear and topological. Linear methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Random Projection (RP) define matrix-based transforms into a lower dimension of Euclidean space. Topological methods such as Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) attempt to preserve higher-level aspects such as the nearest-neighbour relation, and some may be applied to non-Euclidean spaces. Here, we introduce nSimplex Zen, a novel topological method of reducing dimensionality. Like MDS, it relies only upon pairwise distances measured in the original space. The use of distances, rather than coordinates, allows the technique to be applied to both Euclidean and other Hilbert spaces, including those governed by Cosine, Jensen-Shannon and Quadratic Form distances. We show that in almost all cases, due to geometric properties of high-dimensional spaces, our new technique gives better properties than others, especially with reduction to very low dimensions.


Effect of temporal resolution on the reproduction of chaotic dynamics via reservoir computing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reservoir computing is a machine learning paradigm that uses a structure called a reservoir, which has nonlinearities and short-term memory. In recent years, reservoir computing has expanded to new functions such as the autonomous generation of chaotic time series, as well as time series prediction and classification. Furthermore, novel possibilities have been demonstrated, such as inferring the existence of previously unseen attractors. Sampling, in contrast, has a strong influence on such functions. Sampling is indispensable in a physical reservoir computer that uses an existing physical system as a reservoir because the use of an external digital system for the data input is usually inevitable. This study analyzes the effect of sampling on the ability of reservoir computing to autonomously regenerate chaotic time series. We found, as expected, that excessively coarse sampling degrades the system performance, but also that excessively dense sampling is unsuitable. Based on quantitative indicators that capture the local and global characteristics of attractors, we identify a suitable window of the sampling frequency and discuss its underlying mechanisms.


Privately Customizing Prefinetuning to Better Match User Data in Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Federated Learning (FL), accessing private client data incurs communication and privacy costs. As a result, FL deployments commonly prefinetune pretrained foundation models on a (large, possibly public) dataset that is held by the central server; they then FL-finetune the model on a private, federated dataset held by clients. Evaluating prefinetuning dataset quality reliably and privately is therefore of high importance. To this end, we propose FreD (Federated Private Fr\'echet Distance) -- a privately computed distance between a prefinetuning dataset and federated datasets. Intuitively, it privately computes and compares a Fr\'echet distance between embeddings generated by a large language model on both the central (public) dataset and the federated private client data. To make this computation privacy-preserving, we use distributed, differentially-private mean and covariance estimators. We show empirically that FreD accurately predicts the best prefinetuning dataset at minimal privacy cost. Altogether, using FreD we demonstrate a proof-of-concept for a new approach in private FL training: (1) customize a prefinetuning dataset to better match user data (2) prefinetune (3) perform FL-finetuning.


machine_learning_design_patterns.md · GitHub

#artificialintelligence

This book is all about patterns for doing ML. It's broken up into several key parts, building and serving. Both of these are intertwined so it makes sense to read through the whole thing, there are very many good pieces of advice from seasoned professionals. The parts you can safely ignore relate to anything where they specifically use GCP. The other issue with the book it it's very heavily focused on deep learning cases.


15 Top-Ranked Online Machine Learning Certificates 2023 - The Fordham Ram

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As the field of machine learning continues to grow, there is an increasing demand for professionals with the skills and knowledge to develop and implement machine learning solutions. Whether you're a data scientist, engineer, or business professional looking to expand your skillset, pursuing an online machine learning course can help you stand out in the job market and take your career to the next level. To help you get started, we've compiled a list of 15 top-ranked online machine-learning certificates that you can pursue in 2023. These certificates are offered by reputable institutions and are designed to provide you with the theoretical knowledge and practical skills needed to succeed in the field of machine learning. Check out the 15 best machine learning courses below that will help you cement a spot in this ever-growing industry!