Climate change has increased the severity and frequency of weather disasters all around the world. Flood inundation mapping based on earth observation data can help in this context, by providing cheap and accurate maps depicting the area affected by a flood event to emergency-relief units in near-real-time. Building upon the recent development of the Sen1Floods11 dataset, which provides a limited amount of hand-labeled high-quality training data, this paper evaluates the potential of five traditional machine learning approaches such as gradient boosted decision trees, support vector machines or quadratic discriminant analysis. By performing a grid-search-based hyperparameter optimization on 23 feature spaces we can show that all considered classifiers are capable of outperforming the current state-of-the-art neural network-based approaches in terms of total IoU on their best-performing feature spaces. With total and mean IoU values of 0.8751 and 0.7031 compared to 0.70 and 0.5873 as the previous best-reported results, we show that a simple gradient boosting classifier can significantly improve over deep neural network based approaches, despite using less training data. Furthermore, an analysis of the regional distribution of the Sen1Floods11 dataset reveals a problem of spatial imbalance. We show that traditional machine learning models can learn this bias and argue that modified metric evaluations are required to counter artifacts due to spatial imbalance. Lastly, a qualitative analysis shows that this pixel-wise classifier provides highly-precise surface water classifications indicating that a good choice of a feature space and pixel-wise classification can generate high-quality flood maps using optical and SAR data. We make our code publicly available at: https://github.com/DFKI-Earth-And-Space-Applications/Flood_Mapping_Feature_Space_Importance

We apply a new method for learning equations from data -- Exhaustive Symbolic Regression (ESR) -- to late-type galaxy dynamics as encapsulated in the radial acceleration relation (RAR). Relating the centripetal acceleration due to baryons, $g_\text{bar}$, to the total dynamical acceleration, $g_\text{obs}$, the RAR has been claimed to manifest a new law of nature due to its regularity and tightness, in agreement with Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND). Fits to this relation have been restricted by prior expectations to particular functional forms, while ESR affords an exhaustive and nearly prior-free search through functional parameter space to identify the equations optimally trading accuracy with simplicity. Working with the SPARC data, we find the best functions typically satisfy $g_\text{obs} \propto g_\text{bar}$ at high $g_\text{bar}$, although the coefficient of proportionality is not clearly unity and the deep-MOND limit $g_\text{obs} \propto \sqrt{g_\text{bar}}$ as $g_\text{bar} \to 0$ is little evident at all. By generating mock data according to MOND with or without the external field effect, we find that symbolic regression would not be expected to identify the generating function or reconstruct successfully the asymptotic slopes. We conclude that the limited dynamical range and significant uncertainties of the SPARC RAR preclude a definitive statement of its functional form, and hence that this data alone can neither demonstrate nor rule out law-like gravitational behaviour.

Federated Learning (FL) is a setting for training machine learning models in distributed environments where the clients do not share their raw data but instead send model updates to a server. However, model updates can be subject to attacks and leak private information. Differential Privacy (DP) is a leading mitigation strategy which involves adding noise to clipped model updates, trading off performance for strong theoretical privacy guarantees. Previous work has shown that the threat model of DP is conservative and that the obtained guarantees may be vacuous or may overestimate information leakage in practice. In this paper, we aim to achieve a tighter measurement of the model exposure by considering a realistic threat model. We propose a novel method, CANIFE, that uses canaries - carefully crafted samples by a strong adversary to evaluate the empirical privacy of a training round. We apply this attack to vision models trained on CIFAR-10 and CelebA and to language models trained on Sent140 and Shakespeare. In particular, in realistic FL scenarios, we demonstrate that the empirical per-round epsilon obtained with CANIFE is 4-5x lower than the theoretical bound.

We present a simple and quick method to approximate network centrality indexes. Our approach, called QuickCent, is inspired by so-called fast and frugal heuristics, which are heuristics initially proposed to model some human decision and inference processes. The centrality index that we estimate is the harmonic centrality, which is a measure based on shortest-path distances, so infeasible to compute on large networks. We compare QuickCent with known machine learning algorithms on synthetic data generated with preferential attachment, and some empirical networks. Our experiments show that QuickCent is able to make estimates that are competitive in accuracy with the best alternative methods tested, either on synthetic scale-free networks or empirical networks. QuickCent has the feature of achieving low error variance estimates, even with a small training set. Moreover, QuickCent is comparable in efficiency -- accuracy and time cost -- to those produced by more complex methods. We discuss and provide some insight into how QuickCent exploits the fact that in some networks, such as those generated by preferential attachment, local density measures such as the in-degree, can be a proxy for the size of the network region to which a node has access, opening up the possibility of approximating centrality indices based on size such as the harmonic centrality. Our initial results show that simple heuristics and biologically inspired computational methods are a promising line of research in the context of network measure estimations.

Many existing group fairness-aware training methods aim to achieve the group fairness by either re-weighting underrepresented groups based on certain rules or using weakly approximated surrogates for the fairness metrics in the objective as regularization terms. Although each of the learning schemes has its own strength in terms of applicability or performance, respectively, it is difficult for any method in the either category to be considered as a gold standard since their successful performances are typically limited to specific cases. To that end, we propose a principled method, dubbed as \ours, which unifies the two learning schemes by incorporating a well-justified group fairness metric into the training objective using a class wise distributionally robust optimization (DRO) framework. We then develop an iterative optimization algorithm that minimizes the resulting objective by automatically producing the correct re-weights for each group. Our experiments show that FairDRO is scalable and easily adaptable to diverse applications, and consistently achieves the state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets in terms of the accuracy-fairness trade-off, compared to recent strong baselines.

Correct risk estimation of policyholders is of great significance to auto insurance companies. While the current tools used in this field have been proven in practice to be quite efficient and beneficial, we argue that there is still a lot of room for development and improvement in the auto insurance risk estimation process. To this end, we develop a framework based on a combination of a neural network together with a dimensionality reduction technique t-SNE (t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding). This enables us to visually represent the complex structure of the risk as a two-dimensional surface, while still preserving the properties of the local region in the features space. The obtained results, which are based on real insurance data, reveal a clear contrast between the high and the low risk policy holders, and indeed improve upon the actual risk estimation performed by the insurer. Due to the visual accessibility of the portfolio in this approach, we argue that this framework could be advantageous to the auto insurer, both as a main risk prediction tool and as an additional validation stage in other approaches.

It becomes a significant challenge to predict customer behavior and retain an existing customer with the rapid growth of digitization which opens up more opportunities for customers to choose from subscription-based products and services model. Since the cost of acquiring a new customer is five-times higher than retaining an existing customer, henceforth, there is a need to address the customer churn problem which is a major threat across the Industries. Considering direct impact on revenues, companies identify the factors that increases the customer churn rate. Here, key objective of the paper is to develop a unique Customer churn prediction model which can help to predict potential customers who are most likely to churn and such early warnings can help to take corrective measures to retain them. Here, we evaluated and analyzed the performance of various tree-based machine learning approaches and algorithms and identified the Extreme Gradient Boosting XGBOOST Classifier as the most optimal solution to Customer churn problem. To deal with such real-world problems, Paper emphasize the Model interpretability which is an important metric to help customers to understand how Churn Prediction Model is making predictions. In order to improve Model explainability and transparency, paper proposed a novel approach to calculate Shapley values for possible combination of features to explain which features are the most important/relevant features for a model to become highly interpretable, transparent and explainable to potential customers.

Vehicle routing is a well-known optimization research topic with significant practical importance. Among different approaches to solving vehicle routing, heuristics can produce a satisfactory solution at a reasonable computational cost. Consequently, much effort has been made in the past decades to develop vehicle routing heuristics. In this article, we systematically survey the existing vehicle routing heuristics, particularly on works carried out in recent years. A classification of vehicle routing heuristics is presented, followed by a review of their methodologies, recent developments, and applications. Moreover, we present a general framework of state-of-the-art methods and provide insights into their success. Finally, three emerging research topics with notable works and future directions are discussed.

Robustness and resilience of simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) are critical requirements for modern autonomous robotic systems. One of the essential steps to achieve robustness and resilience is the ability of SLAM to have an integrity measure for its localization estimates, and thus, have internal fault tolerance mechanisms to deal with performance degradation. In this work, we introduce a novel method for predicting SLAM localization error based on the characterization of raw sensor inputs. The proposed method relies on using a random forest regression model trained on 1-D global pooled features that are generated from characterized raw sensor data. The model is validated by using it to predict the performance of ORB-SLAM3 on three different datasets running on four different operating modes, resulting in an average prediction accuracy of up to 94.7\%. The paper also studies the impact of 12 different 1-D global pooling functions on regression quality, and the superiority of 1-D global averaging is quantitatively proven. Finally, the paper studies the quality of prediction with limited training data, and proves that we are able to maintain proper prediction quality when only 20 \% of the training examples are used for training, which highlights how the proposed model can optimize the evaluation footprint of SLAM systems.

The ability to quickly and accurately identify covariate shift at test time is a critical and often overlooked component of safe machine learning systems deployed in high-risk domains. While methods exist for detecting when predictions should not be made on out-of-distribution test examples, identifying distributional level differences between training and test time can help determine when a model should be removed from the deployment setting and retrained. In this work, we define harmful covariate shift (HCS) as a change in distribution that may weaken the generalization of a predictive model. To detect HCS, we use the discordance between an ensemble of classifiers trained to agree on training data and disagree on test data. We derive a loss function for training this ensemble and show that the disagreement rate and entropy represent powerful discriminative statistics for HCS. Empirically, we demonstrate the ability of our method to detect harmful covariate shift with statistical certainty on a variety of high-dimensional datasets. Across numerous domains and modalities, we show state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods, particularly when the number of observed test samples is small.