Abstract: Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large datasets in quantile regression models to forecast the conditional distribution of US GDP growth. To capture possible non-linearities we include several nonlinear specifications. The resulting models will be huge dimensional and we thus rely on a set of shrinkage priors. Since Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation becomes slow in these dimensions, we rely on fast variational Bayes approximations to the posterior distribution of the coefficients and the latent states.

In recent years, contrastive learning achieves impressive results on self-supervised visual representation learning, but there still lacks a rigorous understanding of its learning dynamics. In this paper, we show that if we cast a contrastive objective equivalently into the feature space, then its learning dynamics admits an interpretable form. Specifically, we show that its gradient descent corresponds to a specific message passing scheme on the corresponding augmentation graph. Based on this perspective, we theoretically characterize how contrastive learning gradually learns discriminative features with the alignment update and the uniformity update. Meanwhile, this perspective also establishes an intriguing connection between contrastive learning and Message Passing Graph Neural Networks (MP-GNNs). This connection not only provides a unified understanding of many techniques independently developed in each community, but also enables us to borrow techniques from MP-GNNs to design new contrastive learning variants, such as graph attention, graph rewiring, jumpy knowledge techniques, etc. We believe that our message passing perspective not only provides a new theoretical understanding of contrastive learning dynamics, but also bridges the two seemingly independent areas together, which could inspire more interleaving studies to benefit from each other. The code is available at https://github.com/PKU-ML/ Contrastive Learning (CL) has become arguably the most effective approach to learning visual representations from unlabeled data (Chen et al., 2020b; He et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2020c; Wang et al., 2021a; Chen et al., 2020d; 2021; Caron et al., 2021). However, till now, we actually know little about how CL gradually learns meaningful features from unlabeled data.

Modeling parameters are essential to the fidelity of nonlinear models of concrete structures subjected to earthquake ground motions, especially when simulating seismic events strong enough to cause collapse. This paper addresses two of the most significant barriers to improving nonlinear modeling provisions in seismic evaluation standards using experimental data sets: identifying the most likely mode of failure of structural components, and implementing data fitting techniques capable of recognizing interdependencies between input parameters and nonlinear relationships between input parameters and model outputs. Machine learning tools in the Scikit-learn and Pytorch libraries were used to calibrate equations and black-box numerical models for nonlinear modeling parameters (MP) a and b of reinforced concrete columns defined in the ASCE 41 and ACI 369.1 standards, and to estimate their most likely mode of failure. It was found that machine learning regression models and machine learning black-boxes were more accurate than current provisions in the ACI 369.1/ASCE 41 Standards. Among the regression models, Regularized Linear Regression was the most accurate for estimating MP a, and Polynomial Regression was the most accurate for estimating MP b. The two black-box models evaluated, namely the Gaussian Process Regression and the Neural Network (NN), provided the most accurate estimates of MPs a and b. The NN model was the most accurate machine learning tool of all evaluated. A multi-class classification tool from the Scikit-learn machine learning library correctly identified column mode of failure with 79% accuracy for rectangular columns and with 81% accuracy for circular columns, a substantial improvement over the classification rules in ASCE 41-13.

We introduce a regularization loss based on kernel mean embeddings with rotation-invariant kernels on the hypersphere (also known as dot-product kernels) for self-supervised learning of image representations. Besides being fully competitive with the state of the art, our method significantly reduces time and memory complexity for self-supervised training, making it implementable for very large embedding dimensions on existing devices and more easily adjustable than previous methods to settings with limited resources. Our work follows the major paradigm where the model learns to be invariant to some predefined image transformations (cropping, blurring, color jittering, etc.), while avoiding a degenerate solution by regularizing the embedding distribution. Our particular contribution is to propose a loss family promoting the embedding distribution to be close to the uniform distribution on the hypersphere, with respect to the maximum mean discrepancy pseudometric. We demonstrate that this family encompasses several regularizers of former methods, including uniformity-based and information-maximization methods, which are variants of our flexible regularization loss with different kernels. Beyond its practical consequences for state-of-the-art self-supervised learning with limited resources, the proposed generic regularization approach opens perspectives to leverage more widely the literature on kernel methods in order to improve self-supervised learning methods.

Reliability updating refers to a problem that integrates Bayesian updating technique with structural reliability analysis and cannot be directly solved by structural reliability methods (SRMs) when it involves equality information. The state-of-the-art approaches transform equality information into inequality information by introducing an auxiliary standard normal parameter. These methods, however, encounter the loss of computational efficiency due to the difficulty in finding the maximum of the likelihood function, the large coefficient of variation (COV) associated with the posterior failure probability and the inapplicability to dynamic updating problems where new information is constantly available. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes an innovative method called RU-SAIS (reliability updating using sequential adaptive importance sampling), which combines elements of sequential importance sampling and K-means clustering to construct a series of important sampling densities (ISDs) using Gaussian mixture. The last ISD of the sequence is further adaptively modified through application of the cross entropy method. The performance of RU-SAIS is demonstrated by three examples. Results show that RU-SAIS achieves a more accurate and robust estimator of the posterior failure probability than the existing methods such as subset simulation.

We introduce a novel nonlinear Kalman filter that utilizes reparametrization gradients. The widely used parametric approximation is based on a jointly Gaussian assumption of the state-space model, which is in turn equivalent to minimizing an approximation to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It is possible to obtain better approximations using the alpha divergence, but the resulting problem is substantially more complex. In this paper, we introduce an alternate formulation based on an energy function, which can be optimized instead of the alpha divergence. The optimization can be carried out using reparametrization gradients, a technique that has recently been utilized in a number of deep learning models.

Distributed optimization with open collaboration is a popular field since it provides an opportunity for small groups / companies / universities, and individuals to jointly solve huge-scale problems. However, standard optimization algorithms are fragile in such settings due to the possible presence of so-called Byzantine workers - participants that can send (intentionally or not) incorrect information instead of the one prescribed by the protocol (e.g., send anti-gradient instead of stochastic gradients). Thus, the problem of designing distributed methods with provable robustness to Byzantine workers has been receiving a lot of attention recently. In particular, several works consider a very promising way to achieve Byzantine tolerance via exploiting variance reduction and robust aggregation. The existing approaches use SAGAand SARAH-type variance reduced estimators, while another popular estimator - SVRG - is not studied in the context of Byzantine-robustness. In this work, we close this gap in the literature and propose a new method - Byzantine-Robust Loopless Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient (BR-LSVRG). We derive non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for the new method in the strongly convex case and compare its performance with existing approaches in numerical experiments. Keywords: Distributed optimization Byzantine-robustness Variance reduction Stochastic optimization.

Distribution shifts remain a fundamental problem for the safe application of machine learning systems. If undetected, they may impact the real-world performance of such systems or will at least render original performance claims invalid. In this paper, we focus on the detection of subgroup shifts, a type of distribution shift that can occur when subgroups have a different prevalence during validation compared to the deployment setting. For example, algorithms developed on data from various acquisition settings may be predominantly applied in hospitals with lower quality data acquisition, leading to an inadvertent performance drop. We formulate subgroup shift detection in the framework of statistical hypothesis testing and show that recent state-of-the-art statistical tests can be effectively applied to subgroup shift detection on medical imaging data. We provide synthetic experiments as well as extensive evaluation on clinically meaningful subgroup shifts on histopathology as well as retinal fundus images. We conclude that classifier-based subgroup shift detection tests could be a particularly useful tool for post-market surveillance of deployed ML systems.

In recent years, the problem of fuzzy clustering has been widely concerned. The membership iteration of existing methods is mostly considered globally, which has considerable problems in noisy environments, and iterative calculations for clusters with a large number of different sample sizes are not accurate and efficient. In this paper, starting from the strategy of large-scale priority, the data is fuzzy iterated using granular-balls, and the membership degree of data only considers the two granular-balls where it is located, thus improving the efficiency of iteration. The formed fuzzy granular-balls set can use more processing methods in the face of different data scenarios, which enhances the practicability of fuzzy clustering calculations.

Intent recognition is critical for task-oriented dialogue systems. However, for emerging domains and new services, it is difficult to accurately identify the key intent of a conversation due to time-consuming data annotation and comparatively poor model transferability. Therefore, the automatic induction of dialogue intention is very important for intelligent dialogue systems. This paper presents our solution to Track 2 of Intent Induction from Conversations for Task-Oriented Dialogue at the Eleventh Dialogue System Technology Challenge (DSTC11). The essence of intention clustering lies in distinguishing the representation of different dialogue utterances. The key to automatic intention induction is that, for any given set of new data, the sentence representation obtained by the model can be well distinguished from different labels. Therefore, we propose a multi-stage coarse-to-fine contrastive learning model training scheme including unsupervised contrastive learning pre-training, supervised contrastive learning pre-training, and fine-tuning with joint contrastive learning and clustering to obtain a better dialogue utterance representation model for the clustering task. In the released DSTC11 Track 2 evaluation results, our proposed system ranked first on both of the two subtasks of this Track.